Chapter 11: Probability Theory

As soon as he started, Lin Qian unsurprisingly lost five or six rounds in a row, losing a total of two pesos.

Seeing how readily Lin Qian lost, the Spanish sailors broke into warm smiles.

Spurred on by alcohol and gambling, the sailors began to open up.

"You're sailors on the Manila galleon, aren't you?" Lin Qian asked casually.

"That's right, the Santa Ana... raise!"

"I heard you sailed over from across the ocean—is there really land over there?" Lin Qian pretended to be clueless as he matched the bet.

"Over there is Américo, the continent of the New World!"

"I don't believe it. If there really is a continent, why don't you go over there?" Even as Lin Qian spoke, he lost that hand, and eight reales were split evenly among the Spaniards.

The cost of gathering information had accumulated to three pesos.

"You need the monsoon and the black current to set sail—you still have to wait a while."

Lin Qian deduced that the so-called monsoon was the southwest monsoon, which forms each year after summer begins when the subtropical high-pressure belt shifts northward.

For merchant ships in Manila to return to the Great Ming, they also had to wait for the southwest monsoon.

The so-called black current was the ocean current. Combining this with his geographical knowledge from his past life, he knew that the entire North Pacific current system moved clockwise overall—to reach the Americas, one had to first ride the Japan Current, then the North Pacific Current.

When returning from the Americas to Manila, one rode the North Equatorial Current.

And right now it was February.

From this, he concluded that there were still at least two to three months before the Manila galleon set sail.

The Spanish sailors thought they had said nothing at all, but in reality they had leaked every bit of intelligence.

Afterwards, Lin Qian used the same method to buy up all the information he wanted to know.

By the time dawn broke, he had already spent more than twenty pesos on intelligence.

The Spanish sailors' intelligence had been thoroughly squeezed dry, so Lin Qian prepared to get up and leave.

But the Spanish sailors only grew more spirited the longer they played—after all, the money they had won in one night was already equivalent to a month's wages.

Several times Lin Qian tried to leave, but each time the Spaniards blocked him.

One Spanish sailor took a leather pouch from his waist and set it on the table, saying, "If you win the next hand, I'll give you this. How about it?"

Lin Qian looked closely and saw that the pouch contained exactly what he needed—an astrolabe.

Seeing that Lin Qian was interested in navigation, the sailor decided to use the astrolabe as a wager to make Lin Qian stay.

In his view, Lin Qian had been losing all night and could never suddenly turn his luck around and win the astrolabe.

Lin Qian's drowsiness faded by more than half. His interest piqued, he sat back down at the card table.

The card game they were playing was called "Ombre." Each player was dealt three cards and compared their totals. The betting method was similar to Texas Hold'em—each player took turns raising, and the others could choose to call or fold.

If one folded, the bets already placed could not be taken back.

When all bets were equal, the cards were revealed, and the winner took all the bets on the table.

A sailor dealt the cards.

Lin Qian got two twelves and an eight, adding up to thirty points—a very strong hand.

"One peso." A Spanish sailor placed a silver coin on the table.

"Call." Lin Qian promptly pulled out a silver coin.

He knew that once he called, someone was bound to have a hand that just barely beat his.

The rest called and the cards were revealed. Sure enough, one man had thirty-two points.

Having played all night, Lin Qian had long since noticed that the Spaniards were cheating.

The deck had been used for so long that every card had some stains, seemingly accidental, but in reality they all followed certain patterns.

The Spanish sailors could read the point values from the stains, and Lin Qian was only calling bets to lure the Spaniards into a trap.

Before the next round began, Lin Qian used the excuse of changing his luck to ask the bartender for a new deck.

By now the Spanish sailors held him in low regard. Even without the markings, they were confident they could still win, so they let Lin Qian switch the deck.

This round, Lin Qian's three cards were nine, four, and ten respectively, totaling twenty points.

This type of Spanish card had four suits, each suit containing twelve cards, numbered from one to twelve with different point values, forty-eight cards in total.

According to the game rules, randomly drawing three cards to compare totals—by probability theory, the win rate could be calculated directly.

It was just that the calculation was too complex.

Lin Qian had a simple method: the median and mean of the sum of all forty-eight cards' points were both 6.5.

And his average of twenty points was 6.67, higher than the median of the overall sample, so his win rate was clearly above 50%.

Simplifying 6.67 as calculated within a single suit, the win rate was approximately 55.56%.

The result of this calculation was certainly not precise, but it was more than enough to assist with betting.

"Raise."

Lin Qian directly pulled out five pesos.

There were eight Spaniards at the table. If everyone called, Lin Qian could win thirty-five pesos in one go.

Not only would he win back his intelligence costs, he would also make a small profit.

However, five pesos was truly a huge sum, and most of the Spanish sailors chose to fold.

Only one man gritted his teeth and called.

When the cards were revealed, that man had nineteen points—just barely losing to Lin Qian.

Although he hadn't hooked a big fish, Lin Qian could already see that after switching the deck, the Spaniards could no longer cheat.

Now it was time to compete on mathematics.

Lin Qian's strategy was simple: as long as he calculated a win rate above 60%, he would bet heavily.

His gambling funds far exceeded those of the Spanish sailors, so he could afford to lose many times.

The more he bet, the closer his win rate would approach 60%.

An hour later, the Spanish sailors had lost everything they had.

One by one, red-eyed, they fell into self-doubt.

The astrolabe had ended up in Lin Qian's hands, where he toyed with it.

Its principle and function were similar to a sextant's, except it observed celestial bodies through a small aperture, lacking the complex mirror structure of a sextant.

What indicated the degrees on the astrolabe was a cotton thread, weighted at the bottom by a lead ball.

This construction meant the astrolabe could only be used when sailing steadily; once the wind and waves picked up, the readings would be inaccurate. From a technical standpoint, it was far inferior to a sextant.

But regardless, with the scale on the astrolabe, he could solve the precision problem of his homemade sextant to a certain degree. The night had not been spent in vain.

Lin Qian stood up, astrolabe in hand.

The Spanish sailors had wanted to chase after him, but then they saw a stack of silver coins left on the table.

Fifteen pesos—not only covering the money they had lost, but five pesos extra.

The principle that trying to get a small bargain leads to a great loss has held true since ancient times.

Lin Qian had gained much that night, so naturally he would not be stingy with silver.

Stepping out of the bar, Lin Qian felt somewhat drowsy.

Making his way back to the ship, Lin Qian lay down on the bed in the stern cabin and, without even taking off his clothes, fell into a dream.

When he woke, it was already evening.

Lin Qian rose from the bed, feeling refreshed and clear-headed.

Lin Qian summoned Mute Huang, brought out the design drawings for the sextant, explained in detail how the thing was made, and then handed him the monocular telescope and the astrolabe, telling him to make a prototype first.

Mute Huang took them, patted his chest, and headed out the door.

Lin Qian then had someone summon Bailangzai.

Bailangzai walked into the cabin and saw Lin Qian doing push-ups, with all sorts of miscellaneous items bought yesterday laid out on the table.

"You're one of the Tanka boat people, so you should be a good swimmer. How far can you swim on a single breath underwater?" Lin Qian said while doing push-ups.

"I can swim over a hundred and seventy paces."

"Really?" Lin Qian stopped his movements.

For an ordinary person, swimming fifty meters on a single breath was already impressive.

Over a hundred and seventy paces, roughly approaching three hundred meters—that was a terrifying distance.

Bailangzai nodded, his expression despondent: "My sister can swim even farther."

Lin Qian stood up, pulled a package from the table, and handed it to Bailangzai: "A hundred and seventy paces is already enough."

Bailangzai opened the package and saw it contained the copper wire, kelp, salt, and vinegar Lin Qian had bought yesterday.

When copper wire is wrapped together with a cast-iron anchor chain, with seawater serving as the electrolyte, it can trigger galvanic corrosion.

The salt and vinegar served to remove rust from the surface of the anchor chain, exposing fresh cast iron and accelerating the reaction.

The kelp wrapped around the outside could conceal the copper wire, hiding it from prying eyes.

Learning the galleon's departure time and corroding the galleon's anchor chain—this was the first step of Lin Qian's plan.

"Help me deliver these 'local specialties' over there."

Lin Qian pointed at the Manila galleon outside the window.

Yahei

Fenyuan

Pen