Chapter 1152: Wang Zhaoyuan's Views

Next, Wang Zhaoyuan told Emperor Liu a few more anecdotes about the Liao sovereign Yelu Jing. For instance, in the fourth year of Kaibao, a great drought struck Liao, and Yelu Jing went boating on a pond to pray for rain. When rain did not come for a long time, he abandoned the boat and stood in the water — shortly after, rain fell.

When the Liao sovereign toured the prefectures and counties, he saw officials who, to defraud the people of their wealth, deliberately induced commoners to violate prohibitions and then seized their money for it. At this, Yelu Jing flew into a rage — he not only punished them severely but also established a penal law decreeing that such conduct be punished by death.

Yelu Jing hunted without restraint. Every time he went out hunting, he would drink until deep into the night, and while drunk, he would kill people over trivial matters. His ministers often found it difficult to remonstrate with him and were driven away for their efforts. Yet sometimes, when someone dared to defy him and remonstrate forcefully, he could actually accept it.

There were many more stories about Yelu Jing, and from Wang Zhaoyuan's mouth, his image emerged through those trivial details. This was indeed no mediocre sovereign — after twenty years of exchange between Han and Liao, this was also the consensus reached by the rulers and ministers of the Great Han.

It had to be said that this sovereign, who was about the same age as Emperor Liu and held sway over the great state beyond the northern frontier, could be counted as a man of outstanding talent for his generation. It was only that fortune was against him — he faced a Great Han empire rising with overwhelming force under Emperor Liu's leadership.

Of course, over these years, the aspects of Yelu Jing that drew criticism had multiplied — especially his capricious moods, his violent temper, and his love of killing, which made him feared by all.

In the early years, Emperor Liu had thought rather highly of Yelu Jing, but in recent years, he no longer held that appreciation of him as a great rival. He felt that Yelu Jing had degenerated. Judging others by himself, as an emperor without any peculiar vices, he naturally looked down upon Yelu Jing's current obsessions with hunting, drinking, and killing.

But even under such circumstances, Liao's military and governmental affairs continued to operate stably, its national strength grew, its military power recovered, and it achieved the results of pacifying Gaochang in the west and destroying Ding'an in the east.

Seeing Emperor Liu show signs of emotion several times, Wang Zhaoyuan unhurriedly continued: "Your Majesty, though Liao should not be underestimated, your minister believes it still has four hidden perils!"

"Oh!" Wang Zhaoyuan had clearly gotten into his stride — confident and radiant, his spirit soaring. Seeing this, Liu Chengyou gestured and said: "I would like to hear the details!"

"In truth, these are also platitudes!" Wang Zhaoyuan said. "First, though Liao's territory is vast, much of it is desert and wasteland, with tribes standing in great numbers. Though they submit to the Khitan, they have always wavered between submission and rebellion — especially now that the Great Han threatens the Khitan from the south, which further fuels the resistance of the surrounding alien peoples. Moreover, Liao's current management of the Western Regions further disperses its strength. Therefore, your minister believes that Liao today is like a bloated man — appearing strong on the outside, but rotten within!

"Second, though Liao's military and government are stable, this stability is built upon the foundation of ruthlessly striking down dissenters and excluding political opponents. The four clans within the Khitan are the foundation of its imperial rule, yet a rebellion in those years led the Liao sovereign to carry out a great purge. Though this stabilized his throne and the state's situation at the time, the hidden troubles have been buried ever deeper. Though I have no solid evidence, your minister suspects that there are still quite a number of people within the Khitan — especially within the imperial house itself — who oppose Yelu Jing!

"Third, the contradiction between the Hu and the Han. This point, I imagine, needs no further elaboration from your minister — the Great Han, on its northern and southern borders, suffers the same disturbance, and Liao's situation is even more severe. In earlier years, the Liao sovereign struck at Han forces to ease the hostility of the Khitan nobles, yet in reality, he still follows the path of his father and grandfather — using Han institutions in substance.

"Now, even leaving aside the common people, at the upper levels of Liao's court, the division between Han and Hu is exceptionally serious. And as the strength and power grasped by the great Han clans — the Han, Geng, Gao, and others — has expanded enormously, this has clearly aroused the discontent of the old Khitan nobles. The dual system of southern and northern offices, with Hu and Han governed separately, does serve to ease contradictions, but under the circumstances of the Great Han's prosperity and spreading influence, its hidden dangers are very great.

"Fourth, there is the Liao sovereign's love of killing. Though it does not reach the great ministers above nor the common people below, killing over trivial matters and slaughtering his close attendants and intimates to vent his brutality — your minister believes this is a path to disaster. If it continues for long, he will surely suffer its harm..."

These four points were roughly Wang Zhaoyuan's summary of Liao's current problems. As he himself said, they were indeed platitudes — the only somewhat novel one was probably the fourth.

Emperor Liu pondered for a moment, and an appreciative expression appeared on his face. Looking at Wang Zhaoyuan, he said again: "Minister Wang has worked hard!"

This time, one could clearly feel that Emperor Liu's tone was far more sincere, with less of the customary formality.

Wang Zhaoyuan naturally rose to respond with modesty, then continued: "Your minister was ordered to make contact with the Han officials of Liao, and the results were disappointing. Those people turned their backs on the Central Kingdom long ago — no longer ministers of the south, they are single-mindedly willing to be slaves and vassals of the Khitan. Regarding the matter of returning that your minister raised, most avoided the topic entirely, and some even refused in harsh terms. I have failed Your Majesty's commission — I beg to be punished!"

"No matter!" At this, Emperor Liu waved his hand: "If Liao treats them with high office and generous emoluments, such behavior is hardly surprising! Those Han officials, after all, have been in Liao for many years, putting down roots in Khitan soil. There is no need to keep treating them as Han. Having you contact them was originally an exploratory move, also meant to sow discord and disturb their hearts. The outcome matters little — you need not blame yourself!"

"Your Majesty is magnanimous! I thank Your Majesty!" Wang Zhaoyuan, who of course had a good idea of the situation in his heart, responded calmly.

In fact, that Wang Zhaoyuan, as a Han envoy, got this result from his contacts was basically within expectations. However, there were some things Emperor Liu was equally clear about — in the secret contacts with Liao's Han officials conducted by the Wude Office and the Military Intelligence Office, quite a number of Han officials had expressed willingness to serve the Great Han, and some had taken an ambiguous stance...

Clearly, "those not of our kind must have different hearts" — the same applied to the Khitan. How could those Han aristocrats and bureaucrats truly be loyal unto death to Liao? In the end, it all came down to interests.

Sitting on the fence is often despised, yet most people in this world, when faced with a similar situation, would make the same decision — keeping an escape route is perhaps an almost instinctive act.

"Your Majesty, there is one more matter that the court may need to pay attention to!" While Emperor Liu was deep in thought, Wang Zhaoyuan spoke again.

"Speak directly!" Emperor Liu's response was crisp.

"Your minister has heard that, trapped in the Western Regions for many years and finding it increasingly difficult to hold, the Khitan already have the intention of withdrawing their army from the Western Regions!" Wang Zhaoyuan said.

"Hm? Liao can't hold out anymore?" Liu Chengyou was somewhat surprised.

"According to what your minister has learned, the Liao army currently stationed in the Western Regions numbers nearly forty thousand troops, yet the civilian population supporting them has dwindled to just over three hundred thousand. After years of continuous warfare and population loss, most of the remainder are the old and weak. Moreover, they harbor deep hatred and resistance toward the Khitan.

"Additionally, the Kara-Khanid kingdom to the west keeps pressing eastward. Though the Liao army has won many battles, it has never achieved a decisive victory. Because of the long-distance campaign, the fighting grows harder with each engagement, and by now it has become a situation of internal and external troubles — riding a tiger and unable to get off.

"The Western Regions at present are in a state of ruin and desolation, no longer able to provide Liao with wealth, goods, or livestock. Hence Liao's desire to abandon it grows day by day..." Wang Zhaoyuan explained.

"The Liao army, with a few tens of thousands of men, destroyed Gaochang, yet facing a mere Kara-Khanid state, the more troops they send, the harder they fight!" Emperor Liu muttered.

When the topic turned to military affairs, Wang Zhaoyuan immediately became animated. Facing the emperor, he spoke with great fluency, offering his views: "Your minister observes the Liao army's western campaign — the contrast between before and after is hardly surprising.

"Though the Uyghurs of Xizhou had a million people, they lacked proper defense and command, and were defeated piecemeal by the Liao army. At that time, Xizhou was prosperous, with abundant products and great accumulated wealth, allowing the Liao army to live off the enemy's land with little concern for their rear.

"However, after the destruction of the Uyghurs, the Liao army was a force wearied by prolonged war. They suffered setbacks at Khotan, and a surprise attack by the Kara-Khanids inflicted a great defeat upon them. In subsequent operations, even with reinforcements, the disadvantages of the long-distance campaign were magnified. Combined with Xizhou's decline and the exhaustion of their supply line, the Liao army's situation grew increasingly dire.

"Therefore, your minister believes it is not that the Kara-Khanid state is powerful, but that the Liao army is at a disadvantage in heaven's timing, earthly advantage, and human harmony alike. That they have managed to hold on for these two or three years is already a testament to their capability!

"If they wish to resolve their problem, the only way is to keep sending more troops and fight a decisive battle with overwhelming strength. However, dispatching a detached force to campaign in the Western Regions was already a stretch for Liao. As long as the Great Han exists, the Liao army can never fully divert its attention elsewhere!"

It could be said that the Liao army's western campaign had now lasted nearly six years. In the first three years, they swept all before them, reaping the spoils of war and gathering the fruits of victory. In the latter three years, they had clearly fallen into a disadvantage, with their troops gradually sinking into a quagmire, struggling desperately.

Having spoken at such length, Wang Zhaoyuan's mouth was parched. Emperor Liu had Yan Tuo change his cup of tea. Smiling lightly, he said: "So, by that account, the Western Regions might well end up benefiting that Kara-Khanid state?"

"If the Liao sovereign truly decides to withdraw his army, barring unforeseen circumstances, I fear that is so!" Wang Zhaoyuan sighed.

A ripple passed through Emperor Liu's eyes. He was thinking — if the Liao army withdrew, should he take the opportunity to advance westward? But it was only a fleeting thought; reason quickly prevailed. The situation in the Western Regions was not yet clear, and rashly wading into those troubled waters would be unwise.

The corners of his mouth lifted slightly. Raising his eyes to look at Wang Zhaoyuan, Liu Chengyou said: "Speaking with you, I have gained much. Later, accompany me for a meal — consider it my welcome banquet for you. Also, no need to return to the Eastern Capital; for this inspection tour, you shall accompany the imperial entourage!"

"I thank Your Majesty!"