Chapter 865: The Strategic Debate

"Are you all being too tense?" Seeing the ministers unanimous, Yelu Jing remained composed, his tone even relaxed, saying with a smile: "I think the Han ruler is quite friendly after all! For thousands of years, the Southern dynasties have cycled through order and chaos; any capable monarch would seek unification—that is understandable.

Between Liao and Han, we have been at peace for many years. Though there have been minor frictions, they do not affect the overall situation—this benefits the people of both nations. If the Han emperor is wise enough, he should not provoke a great war between the two countries, for that would only deplete national strength and bring calamity to the people..."

Such words, if spoken by a weak and scholarly emperor of the Central Plains, would hardly be surprising—but coming from Yelu Jing, it was truly astonishing. Xiao Husi immediately said: "Your Majesty, precisely because the Han emperor is a capable ruler, he is certain to scheme for all directions. Surveying the histories of the Southern dynasties, is there any mighty sovereign who unified the Central Plains without sending troops north?

Your minister observes that the Han emperor is truly a man of great talent—his brilliance, martial prowess, and magnanimity are hardly inferior to Your Majesty's. Moreover, he holds sole power, has an unyielding will, and has always presented himself as tough.

Remember, back then with fewer than ten thousand men, he dared to strike at Taizong's returning army, leading to the tragedy at Luancheng..."

When Xiao Husi reached this point, Yelu Jing suddenly sneered twice: "Does the Northern Commissioner of Military Affairs mean that I am inferior to the Han emperor?"

"Your minister would not dare!" Xiao Husi's heart tightened. Meeting Yelu Jing's gaze, he somewhat regretted—why had he blurted out everything?

Because of the heavy losses from the Battle of Luancheng and the loss of Taizong's southern campaign gains, there had been some discussion on the Liao side over the years, attempting to draw lessons and experience. Though Yelu Deguang had made his summary of "three errors," it was somewhat shallow and not deep enough.

However, to make a profound review and summary, one could not avoid discussing Yelu Deguang. To be fair, for the decline of Liao's national strength a decade ago, Yelu Deguang bore a large share of responsibility. As a son, Yelu Jing naturally had to defend his father, so he eventually called a halt to the review of past affairs. Of course, not saying it aloud but knowing it in their hearts and working diligently with their hands—the Liao court's policies of governing peacefully and nurturing the people in recent years were precisely based on the national conditions and drawn from those lessons.

At the same time, because the outcome of the Battle of Luancheng was too painful, Yelu Jing also intended to downplay its impact—that battle had dealt a severe blow to morale. When Yelu Ruan insisted on the southern campaign back then, why did so many people from top to bottom oppose it, and the soldiers lacked fighting spirit? That was one of the reasons.

Therefore, when Xiao Husi brought up this matter in front of Yelu Jing at this moment, it was like a slip of the tongue that offended the sovereign, and he could not help feeling regretful.

However, Yelu Jing quickly returned to a calm demeanor, smiling lightly: "Looking at the Han emperor's actions, he indeed qualifies as a generation's mighty sovereign. I may not match him!"

Seeing Yelu Jing say this, Xiao Husi immediately lavished praise on his magnanimity and broad-mindedness, saying he far surpassed Liu Chengyou.

After Xiao Husi finished, Yelu Wuzhi stood up again and said in a deep voice: "Your Majesty should know that when the Han state was first established, Hebei was not yet pacified and the Central Plains had not yet submitted. At that time, the Han ruler, still a prince, dared to return all the surrendered Yan troops to Zhao Yanshou, sending them on a surprise march north to attack Youzhou while we were unprepared, turning ten years of our court's hard work into nothing, and completely collapsing the Hebei situation, which he then took with ease.

Only thus could he establish a foothold in the strong city of Youzhou, defend against our army, and contend with our court without falling behind. Back then, the Han emperor already had such boldness—it shows his extraordinary long-term vision. His gaze clearly surveys the whole board—this is truly a dangerous man who aspires to the world.

In recent years, he has devoted himself wholly to developing national and military strength, focusing on pacifying the south, yet in the north, his defenses against the Great Liao have never been relaxed. Your minister even suspects that he is already preparing for war against our court. When Shizong campaigned south and the iron cavalry rode south, while the Central Plains and Hebei armies pointed north, the Han emperor already had the resolve to exhaust the nation's strength against the Great Liao—and now the Han state has grown ever stronger.

Though Han holds Youzhou, most of the strategic passes of the Yan Mountains are in the hands of the Great Liao. Thus the Great Liao's iron cavalry can range freely north and south, entering and exiting the Yan frontier at will, and in military operations can always dominate from the passes. Such a situation is not something a sovereign like the Han emperor could tolerate.

Your Majesty also mentioned the Southern dynasties' doctrine of 'great unification.' Though the Sixteen Prefectures of Yanyun were ceded by the 'Son Emperor', how could the Han emperor sit idly by while they remain in the Great Liao's hands, without any intention of marching north to reclaim them?

Therefore, your minister believes that between Liao and Han, there is bound to be a life-and-death struggle. Your Majesty must be cautious and must not harbor any illusions about the Southern court. The Great Liao truly should begin preparations!"

Hearing Yelu Wuzhi's words, the drunkenness on Yelu Jing's face visibly faded somewhat. His gaze became bright and sharp. After a moment of deliberation, he said: "Then let us discuss—facing the threat of the Han state, how should the Great Liao respond?"

In the official histories, when Emperor Shizong of Zhou campaigned north and seized Ying, Mo, and the Three Passes, Xiao Siwen suggested reinforcing troops to recover them. Yelu Jing's response was that those were originally Han lands, and losing them was not worth regretting—let them take them. Thus many people despised him for this, saying he neglected military and governance affairs and was muddle-headed and incompetent.

However, upon careful analysis, one can discover that the Sixteen Prefectures of Yanyun—the lands of Ying and Mo—formed a salient protruding southward, like branches growing from the trunk of a great tree. If the Zhou army wanted to take them, the Liao would find them hard to defend.

But if Guo Rong had not fallen ill and turned back, continuing northward to attack Youzhou and retake the Yan Mountain passes, you think Yelu Jing would have sat idly by and let him conquer at will?

In the official history of the Later Zhou, at the same period, although national strength had recovered and the military was growing stronger, with major gains in southern and western campaigns, it still could not pose too great a threat to Liao, which held all the geographical advantages of the north.

But the Great Han of today is a powerful empire without the Northern Han to restrain it, and it is about to complete its historical mission of unification. The pressure it brings to the Liao is incomparable. Under such circumstances, how could Yelu Jing truly maintain that leisure and composure, peacefully sleeping, drinking, and hunting?

The ministers knew this comparison of situations—how could Yelu Jing not? The worries of Yelu Wuzhi and the others were none other than Yelu Jing's own concerns. It was just that to break that situation, there was no choice other than war.

And Yelu Jing's real concern was precisely whether the means of war could achieve the goal. Once Han and Liao clashed, the collision and contest between two empires would not be something settled in one or two battles.

Back then, Taizong Yelu Deguang exhausted the nation's strength and went south three times, and only succeeded in destroying Jin when the Shi Jin was in internal chaos. Now, facing a Great Han far stronger than the Shi Jin, even with Liao having recovered all these years, could it succeed?

"Since war between Han and Liao is inevitable, better to fight early and settle the situation early! Striking first also accords with military principles!" Meeting Yelu Jing's gaze, Yelu Wuzhi laid out his thoughts fully: "Now that the Southern court is devoted to pacifying Jiangnan, it naturally prioritizes defense and stability in the north, not wanting conflict with our court, buying time for its southern pacification.

We have already allowed it to seize Huainan, Jinghu, and Chuanshu. In Han terms, of ten parts of the realm, it already holds seven. We cannot sit idly by and watch it smoothly complete its strategic plan.

Your minister believes we should change our strategy toward Han and prevent it from unifying the south. As long as the Southern court cannot unify, it cannot devote full strength to dealing with the Great Liao. And without the Great Liao's restraint, the small states of Jiangnan could hardly withstand the Han army. At the same time, if the Great Liao sends troops, it can also inspire the various Jiangnan states' will to resist the Han!"

"Wouldn't that make the Great Liao fight and die for the survival of the Jiangnan states?" Yelu Jing said.

Yelu Wuzhi: "Your Majesty, this is inherently a mutually reinforcing matter. The Great Liao acts for the grand strategy of the nation, for hegemony over the realm, to strike and contain a powerful enemy—it concerns our vital interests!"

"By your reasoning, I should agree to the request of that Southern Tang envoy?" Yelu Jing suddenly said.

Previously, on the mission of Tang Crown Prince Li Hongji, the Tang minister Chen Chuyao had secretly traveled north to make contact, discussing an alliance to jointly deal with the Great Han. Yelu Jing had been hesitant, not directly agreeing, but neither had he sent him back—instead detaining him by his side until now.

Yelu Wuzhi said: "Your minister believes we should!"

At this moment, Xiao Husi rose and said: "Your Majesty, your minister has learned in Kaifeng that Li Hongji, the Southern Tang crown prince who was pushing for an alliance with the Great Liao, has already been deposed—the specific reason being an internal palace coup!"

"See! The small states of Jiangnan cannot even keep their internal affairs in order—they are useless for any great purpose. How could they be a match for the Han? Unless the Great Liao throws its full weight southward, how else can we stop its unification?"