Chapter 70: 069 Speculation After Tea and Rice

Before Qin Zhiqing could speak, Lei Ming, his face flushed from drinking, cut in: "Director Mei, why do you care about this?"

"How could I not care?" Mei Shuwei glanced at him and retorted:

"You probably don't know the situation at the People's Bank; look how far the local economy has slid! Fiscal revenue has plummeted accordingly. The state must quickly ease monetary policy and inject liquidity into enterprises through loans. Only if enterprises survive and make money will there be fiscal revenue!"

"How could I not know?" Lei Ming defended himself. "But changing monetary policy is no joke; a single move affects the whole body! The higher-ups are very cautious!"

"No wonder people say your People's Bank is conservative! You fear this and that; by the time you figure it out, all the enterprises will be dead!" Mei Shuwei's tone was sharp.

"Listen, just listen to what he's saying," Lei Ming said, feeling aggrieved. "I'm just a tiny section chief at a grassroots branch; what does the formulation of monetary policy have to do with me? That's a huge accusation to pin on me."

Xia He did not answer; instead, she glanced at Fang Qingye, who was sitting lower down.

"This issue, he and I discussed long ago. Are you still arguing about it?"

Fang Qingye didn't notice Xia He's expression; he was a bit dizzy from drinking and was gulping down mung bean sprout hangover soup in large mouthfuls.

Qin Zhiqing, sitting at the head of the table, stepped in to smooth things over: "Let's not argue about such national matters. However, the news I've heard is that the state indeed plans to change current economic policy, ease monetary policy, and likely lower the benchmark loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio very soon."

"I've heard that rumor too," Lei Ming picked up the thread. "But I also heard there's huge debate among the higher-ups on exactly how much to lower it; even some experts, professors, and economists hold various opinions."

"That's very normal," Qin Zhiqing smiled. "Let alone our country; even in the US, every time the Federal Reserve cuts or raises interest rates, economists worldwide speculate on exactly how many basis points to cut or raise. Some even betting companies offer odds on it."

"Hey, everyone, you all work in financial departments. Tell me, if our country lowers the benchmark loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio this time, by how much will it lower them?" Mei Shuwei suddenly spoke up again.

Xia He and Lei Ming both turned their gaze to Qin Zhiqing.

"Don't look at me," Qin Zhiqing smiled. "My position doesn't give me access to such important data. Perhaps Professor Liu Qingyu at our university knows; he is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank, and all such decisions undergo thorough discussion by the Monetary Policy Committee."

"Oh... Xia He, Professor Liu is your advisor," Lei Ming looked at Xia He again.

"Yes, he is my advisor, but do you think Professor Liu would tell you these figures? That would violate relevant discipline!" Xia He smiled.

Qin Zhiqing and the others admitted this point.

This is state secret. Discussing the trend of policy shifts is acceptable, but specific figures? Who dares to leak them in advance? That would be far more than just a disciplinary violation.

"Alright then, you guess, each express your own opinion, just like some experts and professors online," Mei Shuwei proposed another question.

Qin Zhiqing was quite interested in this topic. Although he was an official, he was of the technical type and loved discussing such economic issues, especially with fellow alumni; speaking freely carried no pressure.

"I've privately considered this issue," Qin Zhiqing pondered for a moment and said, "Personally, I believe the standard one-year benchmark loan interest rate should drop by around 0.3 percentage points, and the deposit reserve ratio is estimated to be lowered by 1 to 1.5 percentage points."

"My prediction is similar to Director Qin's; the one-year benchmark loan interest rate should drop by around 0.3 percentage points, but I feel the deposit reserve ratio should drop by at least two percentage points," Yang Kehua also voiced his opinion.

"My prediction is lower than yours," Lei Ming picked up the thread. "The one-year benchmark loan interest rate should drop by 0.1 to 0.15 percentage points, and the deposit reserve ratio is estimated to be at most one percentage point... Our branch remains conservative."

After speaking, Lei Ming glanced at Mei Shuwei.

"I've also made a small prediction," Yu Yang immediately said. "I work in the Policy and Regulations Division of the Provincial Financial Office and have done some research on changes in national monetary policy. Personally, I believe the People's Bank will lower the two rates by a relatively large margin this time... Director Mei probably feels this deeply. Look at how far the economy has slid; therefore, the state will definitely intensify the policy shift."

"Then how much do you say it is?"

"The one-year benchmark loan interest rate should drop by 0.4 percentage points, and the deposit reserve ratio by at least 3 percentage points!"

"Heh, Yu Yang, your steps are quite big," Lei Ming laughed.

"Yes, much bigger than your estimate."

Lei Ming's expression changed, but he said nothing.

"Senior sister, what is your prediction?" Mei Shuwei looked at her again.

Xia He had not considered this issue.

As a grassroots bank branch president, she dealt with endless trivial matters all day; how could she think about something a hundred thousand miles away from her?

Qin Zhiqing, Deputy Director of the Provincial Financial Office, a department-level leader, stood at a relatively higher position and naturally paid more attention to and understood these major issues.

Yang Kehua, Deputy Branch President of the branch, a deputy division-level cadre about to be promoted to division level, was also quite sensitive to data like the benchmark loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio.

Although Lei Ming was only a section-level cadre, he originally belonged to the People's Bank system and was the Chief of the Monetary Credit Management Section; he frequently dealt with such data and naturally cared deeply.

Then there was Yu Yang, working in the Policy and Regulations Division of the Provincial Financial Office, dealing with various national economic policies all day.

The two of them could voice their guesses only after deep consideration, but what about herself?

Seeing Xia He hesitate, Yu Yang urged with a smile again, "Senior sister, you are the only master's student here and also Professor Liu's top disciple; we really want to hear your high opinion."

"What high opinion do I have? I haven't thought about this matter at all."

This Yu Yang was a bit annoying!

Xia He felt somewhat unhappy in her heart; she wanted to speak the truth, but felt it would be embarrassing on the surface.

Back then, her master's graduation thesis title was "Monetary Policy Expectations and Macroeconomic Effects — Also Discussing a Multi-Indicator Evaluation System for Macroeconomic Regulation of Monetary Policy"; she researched monetary interest rates and received high praise from Professor Liu.

However, in recent years, she had been working at a grassroots bank, and these theoretical academic matters had somewhat fallen into neglect.

Thinking of this, she subconsciously glanced again at Fang Qingye, who was sitting lower down.

At this moment, Fang Qingye had finished his hangover soup. Seeing Xia He somewhat embarrassed, then looking at Yu Yang, he took out his phone from his pocket and quickly sent a message.

Xia He immediately saw her phone on the table buzz twice; the icon was a knife QQ avatar flashing; it was from Fang Qingye!

She picked up her phone and opened QQ.

A simple line of text was on the screen: "Benchmark loan rate lowered by 0.3 percentage points, deposit reserve ratio lowered by one percentage point, but the five major banks remain unchanged."

Ah? This?

Fang Qingye had given his prediction!