Chapter 70

Before Qin Zhiqing could speak, Lei Ming, his face flushed from drinking, interjected: “Director Mei, why do you care about this?”

“Why not care?” Mei Shuwei shot him a glance.

“You in the central bank probably don’t grasp how badly the local economy has declined! Fiscal revenue has plummeted along with it—the state must loosen monetary policy, inject credit into enterprises, so they can survive, make profits, and generate fiscal revenue!”

“How could I not know?” Lei Ming retorted. “But changing monetary policy isn’t something to take lightly—it’s one move that affects the whole system! The higher-ups are extremely cautious!”

“No wonder everyone says your central bank is conservative! Afraid of this, afraid of that—by the time you figure it out, all the enterprises will be dead!” Mei Shuwei’s tone grew sharp.

"Listen to him, listen to what he’s saying," Lei Ming said, sounding aggrieved. "I’m just a low-level section chief at a branch bank—what does monetary policy formulation have to do with me? That’s a huge hat to pin on me!"

Xia He didn’t answer, but glanced at Fang Qingye, who sat below.

“I’ve already discussed this exact issue with him—why are you still arguing about it?”

Fang Qingye didn’t notice Xia He’s expression; he was slightly dizzy from drinking and was gulping down soybean sprout soup to sober up.

Qin Zhiqing, seated at the head of the table, stepped in to mediate: “Let’s not debate national policy here. But I’ve heard rumors the state really will change its current economic policy, loosen monetary conditions, and likely lower the benchmark lending rate and reserve requirement ratio soon.”

“I’ve heard that rumor too,” Lei Ming picked up. “But I’ve also heard there’s fierce disagreement among the higher-ups over exactly how much to cut—even experts and economists are divided.”

“That’s normal,” Qin Zhiqing smiled. “Not just in our country—even in the U.S., every time the Fed cuts or raises rates, economists worldwide guess the exact number of basis points, and some betting companies even take wagers.”

“Hey, everyone—you all work in finance. Tell me, if our country cuts the benchmark lending rate and reserve requirement ratio this time, how much do you think it’ll be?” Mei Shuwei suddenly asked again.

Xia He and Lei Ming both turned their eyes to Qin Zhiqing.

“Don’t look at me,” Qin Zhiqing smiled. “I’m not in a position to access these sensitive figures. Maybe our school’s Professor Liu Qingyu knows—he’s a member of the PBOC’s Monetary Policy Committee, and all these decisions go through full discussion by that committee.”

“Oh… Xia He, isn’t Professor Liu your supervisor?” Lei Ming turned to Xia He again.

“He is my supervisor, but do you really think he’d tell us these figures? That would violate discipline!” Xia He laughed.

Qin Zhiqing and the others agreed.

This was state secrets. Discussing policy trends was acceptable, but leaking specific data? Anyone who did that wouldn’t just be breaking rules—they’d be crossing a dangerous line.

“Alright then,” Mei Shuwei proposed again. “Guess. Each of you give your own opinion—like those experts online.”

Qin Zhiqing found this topic interesting. Though an official, he was technically oriented and loved discussing economic issues, especially with alumni—no pressure, just casual talk.

“I’ve thought about this privately,” Qin Zhiqing mused. “I personally believe the one-year benchmark lending rate should drop by about 0.3 percentage points, and the reserve requirement ratio by 1 to 1.5 percentage points.”

“My prediction is similar to Director Qin’s—the one-year benchmark lending rate should drop about 0.3 percentage points—but I think the reserve requirement ratio should fall by at least two percentage points,” Yang Kehua added his view.

“I’m predicting even lower,” Lei Ming took over. “The one-year benchmark lending rate should drop 0.1 to 0.15 percentage points, and the reserve requirement ratio at most one percentage point… our central bank remains conservative.”

After speaking, Lei Ming glanced at Mei Shuwei.

“I’ve made a small prediction too,” Yu Yang immediately said. “I work in the Policy and Regulations Division of the Provincial Financial Office—I’ve studied national monetary policy changes a bit. I believe the PBOC’s cuts this time will be substantial… Director Mei must feel it deeply—look at how bad the economy has become. The state will definitely intensify policy shifts.”

“Then how much do you think?”

“The one-year benchmark lending rate should drop 0.4 percentage points, and the reserve requirement ratio at least 3 percentage points!”

“Heh, Yu Yang, you’re stepping out pretty far,” Lei Ming laughed.

“Yeah, way bigger than your estimate.”

Lei Ming’s expression shifted slightly, but he said nothing.

“Xia He, what’s your prediction?” Mei Shuwei turned to her again.

Xia He had never considered this question.

She was a branch bank manager at the lowest level, drowning in daily minutiae—why would she waste thought on something ten thousand miles away from her?

Qin Zhiqing, Deputy Director of the Provincial Financial Office, a high-ranking official, naturally paid more attention to such matters.

Yang Kehua, Deputy Branch Manager, a vice-section-level cadre about to be promoted to section level, was naturally sensitive to benchmark lending rates and reserve requirement ratios.

Lei Ming, though only a section-level cadre, was part of the central bank system and head of the Monetary Credit Management Section—he dealt with these figures daily, so he naturally cared.

And Yu Yang, working in the Policy and Regulations Division of the Provincial Financial Office, dealt with national economic policies every day.

Their guesses were well-considered—but what about her?

Seeing Xia He hesitate, Yu Yang smiled and urged: “Sister Xia, you’re the only master’s graduate here, and Professor Liu’s top student—we’re all eager to hear your insight.”

“What insight? I never even thought about this.”

This Yu Yang was annoying!

Xia He felt irritated, wanted to tell the truth—but felt embarrassed.

Back when she graduated, her master’s thesis was titled “Monetary Policy Expectations and Macroeconomic Effects—With a Discussion on a Multi-Indicator Evaluation System for Monetary Policy Regulation”—she’d studied interest rates, and Professor Liu had praised it.

But over the past few years, working in a grassroots bank, those academic theories had grown rusty.

Thinking of this, she unconsciously glanced again at Fang Qingye, seated below.

Fang Qingye had finished his sobering soup. He saw Xia He’s discomfort, glanced at Yu Yang, then pulled out his phone and quickly typed a message.

Xia He immediately saw her phone on the table buzz twice—QQ notification. The icon was a knife, flashing—it was Fang Qingye!

She picked up her phone and opened QQ.

One simple line: “Benchmark lending rate down 0.3 percentage points, reserve requirement ratio down 1 percentage point—but the Big Five banks unchanged.”

Huh? What?

Fang Qingye had given his guess!