Chapter 72: 071 The Market Shakes

By evening, after returning home, she did not open Tonghuashun; instead, she logged into QQ incognito. Surprisingly, the avatar of "Dongguan Girl" did not flash today.

He glanced at several classmate groups; they were all just chatting and fooling around with nothing of value, so naturally he ignored them. He had already quit many stock groups, and the few he hadn't quit were mostly muted—he didn't even bother to click on them.

However, he intended to check that group called "People with IQ Over 150" to see what these idiots were chatting about in the group.

Were they bragging about modeling again?

But what surprised him today was that these people surprisingly weren't discussing modeling; instead, they were actually talking about the central bank lowering the benchmark loan interest rate and the magnitude of the reduction in the deposit reserve ratio.

Handsome Enough to Drag Down Internet Speed: I estimate the two figures will be lowered by 0.3% and 1.5% respectively.

Must Eat Seven and a Half Bowls Per Meal: Wrong. According to my modeling calculations, the two figures for this reduction are 0.35% and 2% respectively.

His words were immediately met with group mockery.

Listening to Men Talk Nonsense: "Seven and a Half Bowls, stop bragging in front of me. If you can build a mathematical model to predict these two figures, you'd be the chief analyst at Citigroup or Morgan Stanley, and I'd marry you!"

"No, no, don't scare me, big sister. I'd rather go find Handsome Enough to Drag Down Internet Speed than marry you!" Must Eat Seven and a Half Bowls Per Meal replied immediately.

"Get lost! I'm not GAY!"

The thread was getting off-topic.

At this moment, Dongguan Girl, who had been lurking until now, suddenly popped up: "Don't derail the thread! Everyone talk about the real issue! I will tally everyone's predictions one by one to see who is accurate!"

"OK!"

"As you command!"

Someone replied immediately.

It seemed Dongguan Girl held quite a lot of authority among these people.

Fang Qingye thought to himself.

"I estimate that this year, the central bank's lowering of the benchmark loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio will not be achieved in one fell swoop; it will definitely happen in several stages, and each reduction will not be too large, observing market reactions while lowering." The speaker was "Listening to Men Talk Nonsense."

Fang Qingye read this and silently praised her.

This woman's statement was reasonable.

Indeed, historically, the central bank's interest rate cut this time did adopt a "small steps, fast pace" model.

"Then tell us, how much will the first reduction be?" someone asked in the group.

"The benchmark loan interest rate will be lowered by 0.25%, and the deposit reserve ratio by 1%." When "Listening to Men Talk Nonsense" typed out these two figures, Fang Qingye was secretly surprised.

This was already very close to the actual historical data!

It was just that he hadn't expected that for the first reduction in the deposit reserve ratio, the five major banks would remain unchanged.

The central bank's move this time was truly monstrous!

After everyone in the group finished their predictions, Dongguan Girl said in the group: "Now only my husband is missing; I'll private message him."

"Him? A bachelor's degree holder stuck in a small town? He can guess a hammer!" Must Eat Seven and a Half Bowls Per Meal immediately jumped out.

Fang Qingye remembered; this was the guy who had been sarcastic about the modeling incident last time.

Could his hometown be in Qin Province?!

Such a high-IQ idiot wasn't worth bothering with.

Fang Qingye did not retort, but he saw Dongguan Girl type a line: "Seven and a Half Bowls, are you looking down on my husband again? Don't forget whose model was trash last time!"

"That one doesn't count; tell him to try again!" Large text appeared on the screen from Must Eat Seven and a Half Bowls Per Meal, seeming very unconvinced.

"There will be plenty of opportunities later; I need to settle this prediction contest first! I'm going to find my husband."

After Dongguan Girl finished speaking, there was no further movement from her in the group, but on Fang Qingye's end, the sailor-suit QQ icon began to flash.

Fang Qingye opened it and saw Dongguan Girl had sent a paragraph; the gist was that the group was currently predicting the central bank's reduction of the benchmark loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio, and everyone was just playing around with no other meaning, etc.

Her tone today was very normal.

It seemed she had learned her lesson and no longer used the opening line "Is my husband there?"

Fang Qingye hated such questions; if she wanted to leave a message, why not just get straight to the point?

He pondered for a moment and decided to reply.

"The one-year RMB benchmark loan interest rate by 0.27 percentage points, and the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point, excluding the five major banks."

"Ah, husband, you're here?" Dongguan Girl immediately typed back and sent a smiling face.

"Just logged on." Fang Qingye replied.

"Husband, I think your prediction is a bit too conservative?" Dongguan Girl seemed somewhat doubtful: "On what basis did you make such a judgment?"

"I dreamed it last night."

"Ah, husband, you can actually joke too? I thought you were always serious? Like a cheese potato that looks hard on the outside but is soft on the inside, hehe..."

The chuunibyou talk was back; Fang Qingye immediately logged off.

Sure enough, a few days later, the central bank announced the first monetary easing measure of the year:

Lowering the one-year RMB benchmark loan interest rate by 0.27 percentage points; other term benchmark loan interest rates were adjusted accordingly based on the principle of adjusting short-term rates more and long-term rates less; the benchmark deposit interest rate remained unchanged.

Except for the five major state-owned banks such as the Agricultural Bank of China, which temporarily did not lower rates, the RMB deposit reserve ratio for other deposit-taking financial institutions was lowered by 1 percentage point, and for local legal-person financial institutions in heavily affected areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, it was lowered by 2 percentage points.

As soon as this news broke, the market was shaken.

Since the magnitude of the reduction did not meet people's expectations, the A-share market not only failed to rise but actually plummeted that day.

However, the stock market was temporarily irrelevant to Fang Qingye; he had already cleared his positions.

At this time, Xia He was at her home in Northern Pearl, taking a phone call from her alumni Qin Zhiqing from Huijing.

"Xiao Xia, did you watch the evening news broadcast today?"

"Yes, Director Qin. You mean the news about the central bank announcing the reduction of the benchmark loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio, right?" Xia He smiled.

"Yes, impressive. Among us, your guess was the closest to the actual data; truly, you live up to being Professor Li's top student."

"You flatter me, Director Qin; I just got lucky, like a blind cat finding a dead mouse." Xia He was very modest.

She had no choice but to be modest.

This was not something I guessed on my own; it was entirely thanks to Fang Qingye.

"Xiao He, I suggest you stop working at the grassroots level and return to the provincial branch to do market analysis in the Financial Research Department; that will better leverage your strengths," Qin Zhiqing said.

"Director Qin, I still want to work at the grassroots level for another two years to accumulate some practical experience," Xia He replied.

"Very well... but you had best return before your Director Zhou retires, otherwise..." Qin Zhiqing did not finish his sentence, but Xia He understood his meaning.

"I understand, thank you for the reminder."

After hanging up with Qin Zhiqing, Xia He successively received calls from Yang Kehua, Lei Ming, and several others, all regarding the prediction of the two-rate cut that day, all praising her prediction as the most accurate.

Xia He felt quite embarrassed.

It wasn't me; it was that guy!

What is he doing now?

Xia He thought for a moment, then picked up her mobile phone again.