Chapter 279: 277: War Is a Gamble

When Zhao Han returned to Ji'an, the fighting over in Northern Zhili had reached something of a stalemate.

Yang Sichang had been transferred away from Beijing and sent to Hubei to suppress the roving bandits, which seemed to have little effect on the northern campaign.

All those stories about Yang Sichang and Gao Qiqian conspiring to frame Lu Xiangsheng read like something out of a popular novel. Even if they had wanted to frame him, they would not have used such crude methods — otherwise, how could Yang Sichang have kept the Emperor's trust all along?

The truth is that Lu Xiangsheng himself proposed dividing the troops and wrote to Yang Sichang to discuss it, and Yang Sichang agreed to the plan.

This can be verified through the memorials both men submitted. Lu Xiangsheng chose to divide his forces based on the battlefield situation. The gist of his memorial can be summed up as: when the various armies mass together, it looks like a combined force but is in fact bloated and wastes manpower; dividing the troops to defend each city turns them into isolated units. Massing troops in one place and dividing troops to hold cities are both grave military errors — one should concentrate or disperse according to the Qing movements.

The Qing army had divided its forces, so Lu Xiangsheng did the same; otherwise, he would simply be letting the Manchus plunder the countryside at will.

Yang Sichang was very cooperative, putting Lu Xiangsheng in command of the Xuan–Da troops, a force of 31,500 men. Fearing that Lu Xiangsheng might suffer a mishap, he also transferred Ji Garrison troops to him, bringing Lu Xiangsheng's strength to forty thousand, surpassing Gao Qiqian's thirty-nine thousand.

In this timeline, Yang Sichang was transferred away, and Lu Xiangsheng took charge of the campaign.

The opening was exactly the same, without the slightest variation. The army split into two routes: Lu Xiangsheng had forty thousand men from the Xuan–Da, Shanxi, Ji Garrison, and Baoding commands; Gao Qiqian controlled thirty-nine thousand.

What happened next was also exactly the same.

Chen Xinjia, the Xuan–Da Governor-General, was transferred to Northern Zhili to guard the imperial tombs, and Lu Xiangsheng detached part of his army to him.

At the same time, certain key cities and strongpoints had to be garrisoned, a task assigned to the Ji Garrison, Baoding, and part of the Shanxi troops.

The situation thus became: Lu Xiangsheng led 24,000 men to pursue and intercept one Qing column. Chen Xinjia led 4,500 men to guard the imperial tombs. Gao Qiqian led 39,000 men to pursue and intercept the other Qing column. All remaining troops were deployed to defend strategic points.

Let us now see how the battlefield situation took its dramatic turn.

Changping, the imperial tombs.

"Supreme Commander, a field report from the Jibei Circuit!"

"Give it here!"

Chen Xinjia snatched the military dispatch with one hand. It had been sent by Zhu Jiashi of the Jibei Circuit.

The Imperial Academy student Wu Yijing had reported to the Shanyin County Magistrate that Qing troops had been sighted crossing Longquan Pass, and the news had been relayed up through the chain of command to Chen Xinjia.

Before this, Chen Xinjia had also received a military report stating that Qing troops had reached Huolu and were going to pass through Jingxing and take Gu Pass to enter Shanxi.

Both reports indicated that the Qing army was heading for Shanxi.

Except that one route went by Longquan Pass and the other by Gu Pass — two completely opposite routes.

After careful thought, Chen Xinjia took up his brush and wrote a field report to the Ministry of War. Its general content was: "The day before yesterday I received a field report that Tartar slaves were at Zhending, their forward scouts having already reached Huolu and Jingxing, about to head for Gu Pass and emerge in Shanxi. Today I received a field report from the Jibei Circuit that the barbarians have already crossed Longquan Pass, which perfectly matches the earlier report."

Two completely contradictory field reports, and in Chen Xinjia's hands they fit together perfectly — and he even dared to send this to the Ministry of War.

Historically, it was precisely this intelligence from Chen Xinjia that led to Lu Xiangsheng fighting alone and dying.

Yang Sichang also bears some blame for this, because after receiving the intelligence, he immediately transferred Chen Xinjia and others back to Shanxi.

Then Yang Sichang wrote to Lu Xiangsheng, saying the Qing troops had already crossed Longquan Pass. Lu Xiangsheng, believing the Manchus had divided their forces and gone to plunder Shanxi, immediately dispatched the elite troops of Wang Pu and other commanders in pursuit — and as a result was left with only a few thousand isolated men to be surrounded and annihilated.

Chen Xinjia, like Xiong Wencan, had been recommended and promoted by Yang Sichang.

Were Yang Sichang and Chen Xinjia simply unfamiliar with the geography, leading to an erroneous judgment? Or did they do it deliberately, wanting to bring about Lu Xiangsheng's death?

Both are possible; it cannot be said for certain, and later generations can only guess.

Now, because of Zhao Han's rise, Yang Sichang had been transferred to Hubei and was not in Beijing giving blind orders.

There were a whole slew of Vice Ministers in the Ministry of War, but they had all been sent out to the provinces as governors and supreme commanders, leaving only Left Vice Minister Xie Wenjin and Right Vice Minister Sun Bixian.

Both of these men came from the Donglin Faction, and both had been promoted by Yang Sichang.

Yet Yang Sichang and the Donglin Faction were mortal enemies. That these two could be promoted suggests they had probably betrayed the Donglin Faction.

Upon receiving the military dispatch, Xie Wenjin immediately said, "Intelligence this critical must be reported at once for His Majesty's deliberation!"

Sun Bixian, however, frowned deeply. He had served as a clerk in the Shanxi Provincial Surveillance Commission, and he was himself a native of Shaanxi. He possessed some basic military knowledge and some familiarity with Shanxi geography. This intelligence that Chen Xinjia had sent seemed to him problematic no matter how he looked at it.

The Tartars had only a few tens of thousands of men on this incursion. They had already divided their forces earlier — how could they now split into two columns again and advance into Shanxi by two opposite routes?

"Cough, cough, cough, cough!"

Sun Bixian was already gravely ill. Historically, he would be dead of his illness in half a month.

Had Yang Sichang not left the capital, leaving the Ministry of War in desperate need of men who understood military affairs, Sun Bixian would certainly have been lying at home.

"It doesn't add up... cough, cough, cough, it definitely doesn't add up," Sun Bixian said, his chest tight and his breath short.

The two men went together to seek an audience with Chongzhen. Sun Bixian could not walk, so a eunuch had to carry him on his back to the Palace of Heavenly Purity.

Seeing Sun Bixian's frail condition, Chongzhen ordered the eunuchs, "Bring two chairs."

Before Sun Bixian could even sit down, Chongzhen asked anxiously, "Is there some critical military intelligence?"

Xie Wenjin immediately produced the field report Chen Xinjia had written to the Ministry of War. "Your Majesty, the western column of Tartars has already crossed Longquan Pass and entered Shanxi."

"Who is the commander defending Longquan Pass? There was no prior warning at all, and yet it was suddenly breached by the slave army!" Chongzhen said angrily.

"Your Majesty... cough, cough, cough!"

Sun Bixian coughed repeatedly. "The intelligence is wrong. Longquan Pass and Gu Pass are one to the south and one to the north. The Tartar slaves cannot possibly appear in both directions at the same time."

"Bring a map!"

Chongzhen had a eunuch fetch a map. After locating the two passes, he nodded and said, "They are indeed very far apart."

Sun Bixian had the eunuch move his chair and helped him sit closer. Pointing to the area east of the midpoint between the two passes, he said, "A few days ago, the Tartar slaves were still in this area. The two passes lie in completely opposite directions of advance. This matter seems highly suspicious."

Xie Wenjin said, "According to the field report Chen Xinjia sent, the Tartars very likely dispatched a small force to attack Gu Pass. This is a diversion — to lure our troops south in pursuit. Meanwhile, the main Tartar slave force secretly moved north and took Longquan Pass by surprise! This is a heaven-sent opportunity. For this Tartar column to advance so rapidly, they surely carry little baggage. Our troops can seal off Longquan Pass, order every prefecture, county, and checkpoint in Shanxi to hold fast, and catch the turtle in the jar — annihilate them completely!"

The analysis seemed quite reasonable.

Chongzhen was rather pleased to hear it and nodded. "That must be it!"

Sun Bixian still felt vaguely uneasy. "Your Majesty, the situation at the front changes by the moment. Why not forward this field report, unaltered, to Lu Xiangsheng and let him judge for himself?"

Chongzhen hesitated.

If the intelligence in the report was true, then this Qing force was a lone column deep inside Shanxi, and it was very likely they could be completely annihilated. If successful, it would be the greatest victory against the Manchus since Chongzhen ascended the throne.

But if the intelligence in the report was false, or if some mishap occurred, then it would turn into a catastrophic defeat.

Chongzhen wanted a great victory, yet feared a catastrophic defeat.

He dared not make the decision. He suddenly felt some regret — if only he had not transferred Yang Sichang away. At such a critical moment, Minister Yang would have been able to decide the matter decisively, unlike these two Vice Ministers before him, who came to the Emperor to argue.

"Are you certain this military intelligence is genuine?" Chongzhen asked Xie Wenjin.

Xie Wenjin started to speak but stopped himself, not daring to say a word. He believed his own analysis, but what if something went wrong? He would have to shoulder the blame!

Chongzhen wanted Xie Wenjin to make the decision precisely so that if anything went wrong, Zhang Wenjin could be made to take the blame.

Xie Wenjin said nothing, so Chongzhen could only ask Sun Bixian: "Are you certain the intelligence is false?"

Sun Bixian naturally dared not speak carelessly and hastily broke into a coughing fit. The fake cough turned real, and once it started he could not stop it. He coughed into his hand for a long time, his palm covered in fresh blood. He equivocated: "Your servant merely finds this intelligence highly suspicious. It could be forwarded to Lu Xiangsheng unchanged. Lu Xiangsheng is a man who understands warfare; he will make his own judgment."

The sovereign and his two ministers all seemed to be struck simultaneously by decision paralysis.

After careful thought, Chongzhen said: "Order Governor-General Chen Xinjia of Xuan-Da, Governor Ye Tinggui of Datong, and Governor Song Xian of Shanxi to immediately take their respective guard battalions and return to defend Shanxi. Copy Chen Xinjia's patrol report in its original form and forward it to Lu Xiangsheng."

These two orders seemed to cover every angle.

Transferring the guard battalions of one Governor-General and two Governors to Shanxi would allow them to defend against any Qing troops that might appear there. At the same time, the route of the main government army was left for Lu Xiangsheng to decide himself.

But this troop redeployment turned the defensive line Lu Xiangsheng had set up in the north into a sieve...

Three days later, Lu Xiangsheng received this intelligence.

Lu Xiangsheng was dumbfounded. Unable to make sense of it at once, he hastily summoned Wang Pu, Yang Guozhu, Hu Dawei, Li Chongzhen, and the other commanders to discuss it.

"What do you all make of this?" Lu Xiangsheng asked.

Having read the military report, everyone was equally baffled.

Wang Pu asked: "Could it be that the garrisons at Gu Pass and Longquan Pass, having heard rumors and submitted reports, are recklessly reporting Tartar slave movements?"

"That doesn't hold either," Yang Guozhu said. "The intelligence that the Tartar slaves have already passed Longquan Pass came from the County Magistrate of Shanyin. If it's true, it means the Tartar slaves reached Shanxi long ago."

"If the Tartar rebels went to Shanxi long ago, then the Tartar rebels we've been pursuing all these days — were they conjured by ghosts?" Hu Dawei retorted.

Li Chongzhen's judgment was exactly the same as that of Vice Minister Xie Wenjin of the Ministry of War: "The Tartar rebels may have split their forces — one detachment plundering ahead, drawing our main army southward. A small force headed for Gu Pass to confuse us. The main body of the western-route Tartar rebels has in fact secretly gone to Shanxi."

Wang Pu said: "The Tartar rebels already split into two routes before. How could the western-route Tartar rebels split into three?"

The pressure of judging the military situation now rested entirely on Lu Xiangsheng's shoulders.

Historically, the intelligence Lu Xiangsheng received had been processed by Chen Xinjia, then filtered through Yang Sichang's judgment, and by then was already distorted beyond recognition. It frightened him into hastily dispatching a large force to Shanxi, leaving his own isolated force to be surrounded.

What he received now was merely Chen Xinjia's roughly processed information, and Lu Xiangsheng was just as thoroughly bewildered.

This thing could only be resolved by guessing!

One wrong guess, and the whole game was lost.

Lu Xiangsheng dismissed the commanders and pulled out all the military reports from the past month, cross-referencing dates, locations, and routes.

Lu Xiangsheng had a vague sense that the Manchu Qing had not split their forces again to go to Shanxi.

Yet he could not be certain, because the other military reports in his hands were also highly likely to be inaccurate.

He still had to rely on guessing...

"Pass the order to all commanders: pursue along the originally planned route. Do not turn back to defend Shanxi!" Lu Xiangsheng had to take this gamble.

(End of chapter)