Chapter 487: The Rear Path

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From mid-August of the seventh year of Chongzhen, the grain shortage along the Grand Canal and in Jingshi began to ease. Grain merchants with backing started releasing grain one after another, and prices slowly fell, dropping from seven to ten taels of silver back to just over five taels.

Yet the cotton cloth market along the Grand Canal suddenly changed. August was the season when Shandong cotton ripened. Cotton farmers in Dongchangfu and Yanzhoufu eagerly harvested their cotton and sold it to the merchants large and small who came to buy. Because cotton cloth prices had skyrocketed this year, all

Large quantities of cotton cloth appeared on the market and were dumped, prices suddenly plummeted, and all kinds of rumors flew. The traveling merchants who had eagerly bought high-priced cotton beat their chests and stamped their feet. But the price did not change at all, plunging rapidly toward three qian per bolt.

It was especially obvious in Tianjin. An endless stream of ships came from Denglai, selling through the Four Seas Trading Company and other large merchants. Trading companies everywhere along the Grand Canal were also selling in huge quantities, batch after batch of cotton cloth being hauled out of warehouses.

With finished product prices crashing, the newly harvested cotton suddenly found no buyers. In some areas where the harvest came a little later, cotton farmers wanted to cry but had no tears. Even at half the previous price, no one bought, while grain prices kept rising. A number of freeholding farmers became refugees. These farming households from Eastern Depot and Yanzhoufu had no choice but to migrate toward Qingzhoufu, where it was said refugees were accepted. Makeshift shelters appeared along the way, and the refugees were endlessly grateful to those Dengzhou people who provided congee and rice.

By the Grand Canal in Tianjin, Deng Keshan strolled along the riverbank with a swagger, a few street toughs at his side. He now belonged to the outer circle of the Four Seas Trading Company, ran a few tobacco shops himself, and also had two cotton cloth and southern goods stores in Hejianfu. Life was quite comfortable.

When the recent grain shortage hit, he could still buy low-priced grain, but this time the cotton cloth price crash made him lose a sum too. Because for a small merchant like him, the Four Seas Trading Company would not consult him, nor would they notify him when prices would drop. So although he

One of the street toughs beside him leaned in and asked, "Big Manager, what are we here to check out today?"

"Check out what?" Deng Keshan snorted. "See how low cotton cloth has fallen."

The riverbank was still bustling. Merchants coming to buy all kinds of goods came in an endless stream, haggling with shopkeepers in every store. When they reached the cotton cloth section, they saw a cotton cloth shopkeeper wailing at his doorway. Two women were pulling at him, the three of them crying in a heap. Deng Keshan pointed at the man and said to the toughs, "See that? This family has all their capital tied up in cotton goods. They're going to lose everything this time."

The tough swallowed and said, "I heard someone tried to hang himself yesterday. Said he bought Jiangnan cloth at five qian. Now it's down to three qian and still no one's buying."

Deng Keshan walked around those distressed people. Ahead, a man sat idly at his shop entrance eating soybeans. Deng Keshan recognized him — a traveling merchant from the south named Bai Wa. He went over and asked, "Brother Bai, how's business lately?"

"Business?" Bai Wa looked up with a mournful face. "Well. Just look — there aren't even a few people around. Where would business come from?"

"It's dropped this much and they still won't buy?"

"Cotton cloth isn't food. With the price dropping day by day before their eyes, who's willing to buy now? Those out-of-town cotton merchants would rather find an inn and wait. Then come check the price every day. They won't make a move until it hits bottom."

Deng Keshan frowned and rubbed his head. He still had over five thousand taels of silver in goods. This time he'd lose at least over two thousand taels.

Walking further along, the tough beside him came over again and asked, "Brother Deng, I heard the Four Seas Trading Company is hoarding grain together with a few grain merchants, but with cotton cloth it's almost just the Four Seas alone stirring things up. Lately they've been dumping goods fiercely. Prices drop every day, and they've got plenty of stock. Some merchants who can't wait any longer all go buy from them — the more you buy, the more the price drops. The Jiangnan cloth they hoarded before has all been pushed to the lowest, but Dengzhou cloth is still expensive."

"Of course it's more expensive." Deng Keshan said listlessly, "Dengzhou cloth is finer, denser, and sturdier than Jiangnan cloth. It feels comfortable to the touch and sells without worry. Of course they offload the Jiangnan cloth first."

"Then Brother Deng, you've taken a terrible loss. A lot of the cloth you bought is Jiangnan cloth. Now that the Four Seas Trading Company is dumping Jiangnan cloth like mad, ours definitely can't be sold. Next year let's not deal in this stuff anymore, just sell some cigarettes."

Deng Keshan ground his teeth. "That damn woman Wang Erya didn't say in advance she was going to dump goods. I sent her gifts and she wouldn't even take them. If she'd just tipped me off earlier, I could have dumped goods along with her and wouldn't have taken a loss like this."

That tough rolled up his sleeves. "Brother Deng, let's take a few brothers and teach her a lesson, grab her and bring her back to warm your kang."

Deng Keshan rained blows on the tough's head. "Teach your mother a lesson! You dare hit the shopkeeper of the Four Seas Trading Company? You don't want your life anymore? Do you know what Wang Erya counts for in Lin... forget it, I'm not going to talk to you about this."

The tough rubbed his head. "Then Brother Deng, are we still selling cotton cloth next year?"

"Sell, why wouldn't we sell? Next year I'm only buying Dengzhou cloth. We won't mess around on the Grand Canal anymore — we'll go sell in Hejianfu. I've got to earn back this year's losses. When we get back later, we'll sell all the cotton cloth at low prices. That dog Wang Erya, who knows how low she'll push cotton cloth. Just sell at a loss and be done with it."

As they talked, they reached the place where cotton was sold. The street was lined with countless loads of cotton-filled shoulder poles, but many cotton-buying shops were closed. Many of the small shops here were run by locals. The Four Seas Trading Company valued them for having storage space and had them help the company buy cotton on normal days, earning some profit in between.

Now the Four Seas Trading Company had suddenly stopped buying cotton. Word was the cotton cloth couldn't be sold, so these small shops also stopped buying. Those traveling merchants who had just collected new cotton early from Linqing lost their entire capital and had nowhere to even put the cotton.

Among the traveling merchants on the street, some beat their chests and stamped their feet, some wailed loudly, and some stared blankly at the sky with vacant eyes.

Ahead, someone suddenly shouted, "Someone's jumped into the river!"

Deng Keshan and the others hurried to the riverbank and saw a person thrashing in the water. A few boatmen were already rowing over to rescue them. The tough beside him whispered to Deng Keshan, "Brother Deng, the Four Seas Trading Company has harmed so many people in one move. Do you think these people will go fight them to the death?"

Deng Keshan watched the person being pulled out and breathed a sigh of relief. He turned to the tough and said, "In business, there's profit and there's loss. They didn't steal or rob — what are they going to fight to the death over? If you really want to talk about fighting to the death, there are over a thousand Dengzhou soldiers stationed next to Zhenhaiying. You think they're just there lazing through the winter?"

The tough pursed his lips and nodded. Deng Keshan looked again at the person who'd been fished out and muttered under his breath, "This stunt the Four Seas Trading Company pulled really went too far. Wouldn't it be better if everyone just made silver?"

"Marshal Zu, what are we going to do about this?"

In the Regional Commander's residence in Jinzhou, Wu Xiang, the Liaozhen Tuanlian Regional Commander, looked like a frostbitten eggplant as he spoke, facing the imposing Zu Dashou before him.

Zu Dashou had aged considerably these past two years. After the Battle of Dalinghe, his crimes of surrendering and killing He Kegang were exposed. From then on, he dared not enter the passes again, not even going to Ningyuan. He relied on Jinzhou to keep the imperial court in check. So if anyone at court proposed abandoning Jinzhou, that would be cutting off the Zus' army's retreat, and the Guanning Army would fight them to the death.

Wu Xiang, Zu Kuan, Zu Dale, and others were key officers of Liaozhen, all belonging to the Zu family faction, maintaining the Zus' army's position in Liaoxi. Chongzhen could do nothing about Zu Dashou. For the moment, Huang Taiji could do nothing about him either. But ultimately it was a tightrope act — once the balance was mishandled, it was easy to fall into the abyss.

Chongzhen's loathing for Zu Dashou went without saying. Now it was only forced by circumstances. If the court was pushed too far and cut off the regular grain supply and the Liaodong Tax, Liaoxi would be a dead end, and Zu Dashou could only surrender to the Jianzhou Bandits. That kind of life was naturally not what Zu Dashou wanted. But the Later Jin side couldn't be pushed too hard either. If Huang Taiji once again struck fiercely and besieged Jinzhou, Zu Dashou would become a high-ranking slave, his power gone, and his good days would end. So when the court wanted to transfer the Guanning Army into the passes for imperial rescue and the like, the Zus' army still had to obey orders. The proper formalities toward the powerful at court also had to be observed. But taking the initiative to fight the Jianzhou Bandits or continuing to build forts forward — those things they would not do.

After the fourth year of Chongzhen, another player joined the Liaodong chessboard — Dengzhou Garrison. The game became even more complicated for Zu Dashou. After Dengzhou Garrison occupied Lvshun, Zu Dashou was initially unhappy that they were splitting the Liaodong Tax. Later he discovered they could effectively tie down the Jianzhou Bandits. Plus he understood Chongzhen's strategy of using Denglai to check Liaoxi, so he endured it. He even sent Wu Xiang to build ties with Dengzhou Garrison. After probing, Wu Xiang concluded that Chen Xin also intended to be a warlord like the Guanning Army, and the only Ming force that could defeat the Guanning Army was Dengzhou Garrison. Zu Dashou then agreed to trade warhorses with Dengzhou, easing relations with Chen Xin.

But Dengzhou Garrison expanded at an astonishing speed, soon dominating the Jinzhou Isthmus, and now even occupying Fuzhou. Their cavalry fought back and forth with the Jianzhou Bandits at Gaizhou all day long, already nearing the central Liaoning plain, the Jianzhou Bandits' core. Denglai's power grew even stronger. According to Wu Xiang's estimate, Chen Xin's military households would exceed one and a half million this year, with combat troops between thirty and forty thousand, plus a large number of militia. And with abundant military pay, their overall strength pressed directly on the Jianzhou Bandits. If fighting in Denglai, Wu Xiang reckoned the Jianzhou Bandits might not be a match for Dengzhou Garrison. It was only the difficulty of projecting manpower and supplies into Liaodong that kept them temporarily contained in Liaonan, but their power was constantly swelling.

Zu Dashou now hesitated again. The three main powers in Liaodong had all drawn near the Liaoxi region. The imperial court, the Jianzhou Bandits, and Dengzhou Garrison each had their own advantages, and all had entanglements of interest with the Guanning Army, yet could turn into mortal enemies at any moment. The Zus' army was caught in the middle, and maintaining their position was truly not easy.

Now Chen Xin had come out to stir the pot again, adding more white hairs to his head. If it were some local rich bully from anywhere else who dared to speculate on grain in Liaoxi, Zu Dashou would have cut him down with one stroke. But now Dengzhou Garrison's power was rising steadily — power was diplomacy. Zu Dashou had to consider whether Chen Xin might one day cut him down, so toward the Four Seas Trading Company he could only watch helplessly, lest he cut off the route to Dengzhou. The grain shops of other court powerholders and princes speculating on grain — he likewise dared not use force against them.

Under such cramped conditions, Zu Dashou racked his brains all day. And stuck in Jinzhou, a frontline facing the powerful threat of the Jianzhou Bandits, Zu Dashou's psychological pressure was immense. These two years had aged him considerably.

Wu Xiang was still there saying, "Over on the Denglai side, quite a few ships suddenly came, bringing a lot of grain. And quite a lot came from Tianjin too, mostly grain from the Four Seas Trading Company. All of a sudden, grain prices dropped."

Zu Dashou waved his hand impatiently, "I know that. How low have they dropped now?"

"They sold at fifteen taels for two days. The Kalaqin people were buying like mad in Ningyuan. The silver was piled up like a mountain outside the Four Seas' door. I couldn't hold back and started selling too, but then it suddenly crashed. The day before yesterday it was twelve taels per shi, yesterday it was seven taels. I hear tomorrow it'll be three taels. The Kalaqin people have gotten smart too — they're still waiting to push the price down."

Zu Dashou's eyes went wide. "Then get our goods out fast."

"Well, I want to get them out, but half the goods from Tianjin still haven't arrived."

Zu Dashou paced slowly in the room. He still made quite a bit of money each year from trade with the Mongols, but the grain he bought in Tianjin was seven taels five qian per shi. Half of it was bought from the Four Seas Trading Company. Wu Xiang had even gone begging at that Lu You's door, owing a favor to get that price. Now it seemed they'd been duped. They had originally planned to make a big profit off Kalaqin silver in Ningyuan, and now they couldn't even recover their capital.

Wu Xiang said anxiously, "These past days Guanning has been full of wailing — so many people starved to death. When grain prices were that high, he didn't come sell. Now that we've just bought grain, he comes to suppress the price. The traveling merchants who used to come sell grain are all finished this time, including the businesses of many gentry and civil officials. What exactly is Chen Xin trying to do?"

Zu Dashou ground his teeth. "Aside from harming us, what else could he be doing?" He huffed a few breaths, then slowly exhaled and said, "Forget it. I can't afford to provoke him. We'll drop prices along with him. Just consider the silver thrown to hungry dogs."

"But if you say he's trying to harm us, he's still supplying us with cigarettes, southern goods, and private salt. We can still earn silver from that."

Zu Dashou for a moment had no idea what Chen Xin really meant. He paced with his head down for a while, then could only shake his head and say, "Anyway, we can't sell grain anymore. Next year we'll see how the wind blows. What the hell is Chen Xin doing? He's shipping it cheap to Guanning — isn't he afraid the Mongols will resell it to the Jianzhou Bandits?"

Wu Xiang said fiercely, "But Kalaqin might not be able to resell it to the Jianzhou Bandits. Grain prices in Jingshi still haven't dropped — still around seven taels, just that you can actually buy it now. If Kalaqin buys grain at two taels from Liaoxi, they'd rather sell it at the border passes of Jizhen. One flip and they earn silver. The Mongols have plenty of people anyway, and they've got abundant horses — they don't mind traveling extra. The traveling merchants inside the passes are out of luck — once the checkpoints along the way collect taxes, they still have no profit. So if the Jianzhou Bandits want to come buy grain, they'll still have to pay a higher price."

Wu Xiang turned to look at Zu Dashou. "Last time Kefa wrote saying the Tatars' land is strewn with corpses of the starved. In Shenyang City, there are hundreds of oxcarts hauling bodies out of the city every day. The countryside is even worse. How about we send letters to Runze and Kefa, have them send people directly to the Yizhou area to buy grain? We can still earn something from it."

Zu Dashou looked at the floor and said, "Mm, once the grain is harvested we can still..." Zu Dashou suddenly stopped and slapped his thigh. "Liaoxi and Liaodong are both about to have the autumn harvest. Chen Xin has been holding back for this moment to release grain. First he drove up prices in Guanning, made grain merchants all stop selling, sent grain prices soaring to the heavens, starved a swath of the Jianzhou Bandits to death. At the moment of greatest grain shortage, he suddenly releases grain, earns the Kalaqin silver, and screws over our brothers in Liaoxi. How can this bastard be so shameless?"

Wu Xiang sucked in a breath of cold air. "Then with the Jianzhou Bandits having starved so many to death this year, will they come raid Liaoxi in the winter?"

Zu Dashou's eyes shifted as he thought for a moment and said, "Shouldn't be a worry. Chen Xin and Dongjiang Garrison are squatting in Liaonan. Around Gaizhou there are cavalry battles every day. The Plain White Banner and the Bordered Red Banner are being worn down and crying out in misery. Even if the Jianzhou Bandits attack, they can't besiege a city and stay. We don't care how Dengzhou and the Jianzhou Bandits fight — we just hold Liaoxi and wait for them to decide a winner. From the moment this man Chen Xin appeared, he's been fixed on hitting the Jianzhou Bandits. Others think he's avenging a blood feud, but I think he wants to drive out the Jianzhou Bandits and occupy Liaodong himself, then..."

Wu Xiang said in a low voice, "Then..."

The two exchanged glances. Zu Dashou nodded slightly and said, "And it happens that his Dengzhou Garrison is this strong, and can still manipulate grain prices like this. This man we cannot offend. Losing a bit of silver is a small matter — keeping some goodwill for future dealings is what matters."