Chapter 144: The Great Ming's Problem Today (Part Two)

After Ni Yuanlu withdrew, Zhang Zhiji stepped forward and swept his gaze across the assembly.

This young heir to the Duke of Ying was, at this moment, equally overwhelmed with emotion.

He drew a deep breath, forced himself to calm down, yet his voice still carried a faint tremor.

"The answer we ultimately found consists of only eight words!"

He paused, then spoke each word as if expending every ounce of his strength.

"Population multiplies; the land cannot sustain it!"

The moment his words fell, a slight stir rippled through the hall.

Some older, steadier officials furrowed their brows slightly, as if unconvinced by this answer.

In their view, the dynasty's problems were a tangled mass of countless threads — how could a mere eight words sum them up?

Yet, before they could ponder further, Zhang Zhiji suddenly swept his hand through the air.

The young eunuchs standing in attendance pulled down the white paper from the screen in unison, and an enormous chart burst into view before everyone's eyes.

"In the time of Emperor Gaozu of Han, when the realm was first settled, the registered population was eighteen million."

Zhang Zhiji's voice abruptly rose.

"By the time of Emperor Ping of Han, a mere two hundred years later, the population had already reached over fifty-seven million! More than a threefold increase!"

"After subsequent wars and chaos, by the time of Emperor Guangwu of Han, the population had fallen back to over twenty million."

"Yet, by the time of Emperor Huan of Han, barely a century later, the population had once again climbed to over fifty-six million! A staggering more than twofold increase!"

He spoke all the way from the Han down to the Song, finally coming to a close at the end of the chart.

"By the Song dynasty, when Emperor Taizong reigned, the realm's registered population was over thirty million."

"By the time of Emperor Huizong, a mere one hundred and thirty years later, the population had already reached over one hundred million! Yet another threefold increase!"

At the figure of one hundred million, some officials whose minds had been wandering were finally drawn back to attention, though others still remained lost in their own thoughts.

"We combed through the archives of every dynasty, consulting the Book of Han, the Comprehensive Institutions, the Old Book of Tang, the Yongle Encyclopedia, the Song Huiyao, and other works, examining each in turn — only thus did we obtain these figures!"

At this, a fanatical flame blazed in Zhang Zhiji's eyes, his voice surging to a peak of fervor.

He faced all the officials and posed a question everyone already knew.

"And yet, at the founding of our Great Ming, in the twenty-sixth year of the Hongwu reign, the recorded registered population was over sixty million!"

"To this day, upon the Yellow Registers of our Great Ming, the figure remains over sixty million!"

"I venture to ask you, my lords!" he barked sharply. "After two hundred and thirty-four years of peace, with the realm undisturbed, can the population of our Great Ming truly be only a little over sixty million?!"

"Is that possible?! Is that reasonable?!"

Of course it's not reasonable — everyone knows that — but you really don't need to shout so loudly.

Some in the hall had now truly fallen into the rhythm and were seriously speculating about the current Ming population.

Had it doubled, to one hundred twenty million? Or tripled, to one hundred eighty million?

Surely not... two hundred million?

This thought flickered through some minds, only to be dismissed by themselves an instant later.

Others, however, were weighing the purpose of this Daily Lecture, calculating its implications for their own offices and family properties.

So...

They really are going to carry out a full cadastral survey of the farmland, aren't they?

Should they first disperse their land among their clans?

Or wait and see for now? Land, once dispersed, becomes very hard to clarify after a few years.

Amid this silence of private calculations, a steady voice rang out.

"Your subject has a question."

Everyone turned toward the voice and saw an official rising to his feet — none other than the former Nanjing Minister of Revenue, Bi Ziyan.

This veteran minister's face bore no mockery or opposition, but rather an expression of intense interest and inquiry.

"Young Sir Zhang's thesis, using history as a mirror, is deeply thought-provoking." He first cupped his hands politely, offering affirmation.

"But this subject believes that scholarship must be rigorous."

"At the beginning of a dynasty, warfare is frequent, the common people are displaced, and many flee the chaos and abandon their household registrations — hence the registered population figure is relatively low."

"Once the realm is stabilized, those households hidden in the mountains and forests will return one after another. Thus, comparing the peak values of two dynasties may lead to an overestimation of the multiple of population growth."

Bi Ziyan's voice was unhurried and measured, his reasoning clear.

He bowed slightly and offered another salute: "Nevertheless, this subject still believes this method is already worthy of being called a masterwork. I raise this question solely for the sake of rigor. May I ask you gentlemen, is there still more ample supporting evidence?"

His gaze burned bright, as if he were admiring a peerless piece of jade and could not wait to see its even more perfect side.

Hearing this, Zhang Zhiji, far from showing the embarrassment of being refuted, instead let out a long breath of relief and gave Bi Ziyan a slight bow.

"Minister Bi, what you say is absolutely correct! We had the same thought!"

He gestured with his hand, and the young eunuchs once more pulled down the paper on the screen, revealing a new chart.

"This is a chart of the population growth of our Great Ming's imperial clan, with data drawn from the clan's jade register records."

Zhang Zhiji declared loudly: "The late Right Vice Minister of the Ministry of Rites, Xu Guangqi, once submitted a 'Memorial on Disposing of Imperial Clansmen and Auditing Border Pay.'"

"In it, he stated: In the Hongwu reign, the princes of the blood and below, male and female, numbered only fifty-eight. By the Yongle reign, the number was one hundred and twenty-seven — that is a doubling in a little over thirty years!"

"At the beginning of the Longqing reign, those extant numbered twenty-eight thousand; in the twenty-second year of the Wanli reign, those extant numbered sixty-two thousand — that is, again, a doubling in thirty years!"

"In the thirty-second year of the Wanli reign, those extant numbered no less than eighty thousand — that is an increase of one-third in ten years, which again amounts to a doubling in thirty years!"

However, Bi Ziyan slowly shook his head.

"This sealed memorial — this old man has also had the honor of reading it."

"In the past, whenever an imperial clansman fathered a son, he would receive a clan stipend. A Defender-General of the State received a thousand shi of stipend; a Defender-Commandant of the State received four hundred shi."

"Driven by profit, everyone bore sons, all making propagation their chief concern — to the point that there were cases of a single man fathering a hundred children."

"However, in the fifth year of Tianqi the fixed-stipend law was enacted, permanently capping the quota of imperial clansmen in each region. This unchecked proliferation will inevitably be curbed. Using it as evidence is therefore somewhat biased."

Zhang Zhiji nodded and frankly admitted, "Minister Bi is absolutely right."

"The growth of the imperial clan was simply taken as the most extreme case — the growth rate when commoners are free from want for food and clothing, and even have incentives to bear children. It truly cannot serve as proof."

With that, he stepped back, a trace of reluctance in his expression.

Just as everyone assumed this debate had reached its end—

Wu Kongjia smoothly stepped forward.

He first bowed toward the throne, then to the assembled officials, his movements flawlessly precise.

"As Minister Bi has said, in the matter of population growth, neither the histories can be wholly trusted, nor can the imperial clan serve as evidence."

"The most accurate method is to use the common people's births and rearing as a sample — only then can the truth be discerned."

With a sweep of his hand, the young eunuchs pulled down the sheets of white paper on the screens in unison, revealing a fresh page before everyone's eyes.

There were no complex curves — only line after line of cold words and figures, filled into a table.

"This: a report on the population growth of the capital, from the first year of Tianqi to the present."

Wu Kongjia's tone was utterly flat, as if he were reading aloud from an account book that had nothing to do with him.

"We mobilized personnel to investigate and survey six hundred and eighty-one midwives within the capital."

"Among them, a small number with a smattering of literacy had account books recording their delivery data over the years. The majority, who were illiterate, could only orally recount data from the past one or two years."

"In total, we recorded thirty-seven thousand two hundred and eighty-two valid birth records."

"In a capital of one million people, a married couple, over a lifetime, produces roughly five children. However, half of these either die in difficult labor or perish in infancy."

"The infants who ultimately survive and grow to adulthood: over twenty-seven thousand."

"We further visited five hundred and twenty-five ward and neighborhood tithing chiefs, and simultaneously investigated the account books of twenty-eight coffin shops and incense-and-candle shops in the capital."

"We obtained a total of five thousand eight hundred and twenty-seven valid death records, and calculated that the average age of death for the common people of the capital is forty-five years."

"Extrapolating from this, in a capital of one million people, the number of those who die each year is approximately twenty-two thousand and more."

Wu Kongjia paused, his icy gaze sweeping across the hall.

"Therefore, from this we may conclude: in the capital, for a population of one million, excluding migration in and out, the net annual increase in population is over five thousand persons."

He looked around the hall once, then delivered his summation.

"In other words, the rate of population growth in the capital is approximately five per thousand per annum."

As his words fell, Bi Ziyan let out a long sigh, his face full of admiration and genuine submission.

"Such exquisitely meticulous research — I have never heard the like! Matching births against deaths, midwives against coffin shops… brilliant! Truly, utterly brilliant!"

He cupped his hands toward Wu Kongjia, spoke not another word, and slowly sat down.

Wu Kongjia, however, remained utterly expressionless and continued, "Well then — what does a population growth of five per thousand truly mean for our Great Ming?"

"In the twenty-sixth year of the Hongwu reign, the realm was at peace and the civil service was clean and clear. The census of that time, recording sixty million persons across the empire, should be accepted as reliable history."

"At that time, the realm still had more land than people. The speed of the common people's propagation may well have been faster than in today's capital."

"But for the sake of prudence, we shall still calculate the population growth of that time at five per thousand."

"Then, from the twenty-sixth year of Hongwu to today, two hundred and thirty-four years later, the population of our Great Ming is…"

Everyone's attention was at last completely captured.

Even the most deep-scheming among them were drawn in by this lucidly reasoned, layer-by-layer advancing method of empirical research.

They stared fixedly at those screens, holding their breath.

Wu Kongjia slowly raised his hand and gave a light wave.

Swish!

All the screens flipped to the next page in unison.

A new chart — a number so immense one dared not look directly at it — appeared before everyone's eyes!

Coldly, Wu Kongjia uttered the final answer.

"One hundred ninety-three million, five hundred forty thousand!"

The entirety of Huangji Hall instantly erupted!

No one cared any longer about losing composure before the sovereign. All the shock, the horror, the disbelief — at this moment they burst forth completely, transforming into a seething roar of voices that threatened to blow the very roof off the great hall!

"One hundred ninety million?! This… how is this possible!"

"It seems well-reasoned and well-evidenced, yet… yet this is simply too shocking to believe!"

"Wrong! What of disasters, wars, plagues! How can it be calculated so simply!"

"Indeed! In the south, the drowning of infants is common — they bear children but do not raise them. How can population nourishment be the same as in the capital!"

"If today there are already one hundred ninety million, then what of a hundred years hence? Three hundred million? Four hundred million?!"

"Impossible! Where in the realm is there enough land to feed so many people!"

Wu Kongjia watched the chaos before him coldly, uttering not a word, yet in his heart, towering waves were crashing just the same.

Among the five of them, he alone came from a merchant background and was the most proficient in arithmetic.

When this number was first calculated, even they themselves could not believe it.

It was he who had personally spent an entire double-hour, repeatedly verifying it on the abacus, before he finally confirmed the result with trembling hands.

What the histories of successive dynasties recorded was actually true!

In two hundred years of peace, the population can more than triple!

This secret, hidden in piles of old paper and ignored by countless scholars, was now laid bare before everyone's eyes, stark and naked.

And yet… among all the clever men under heaven, why was it only that young sovereign upon the throne who had noticed it?

"Silence! Silence!"

The protocol officers bellowed themselves hoarse.

It was a long while before the clamor in the hall gradually subsided, but the faces, each bearing a different expression, made it clear that the shock within them was far from over.

Wu Kongjia, his face expressionless, turned around, bowed deeply toward the throne, and silently withdrew back into the ranks.

His task was complete.

The boulder had been cast.

And this pool of stagnant water would now boil over because of it.

Begging for monthly tickets.