Chapter 241: Anglo-Russian Conflict, German Neutrality

While the Spanish government was discussing its actions regarding Portugal, the situation in the Balkans, which had been calm for several months, finally fell into chaos once again.

In mid-to-late February 1878, the Russian government forced the Ottoman Empire to sign the Treaty of San Stefano, attempting to end the war as quickly as possible to avoid the results of the war being interfered with by the British and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

The contents of this treaty had been discussed in advance by the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov, and Tsar Alexander II; for the Ottoman Empire, whose troops were collapsing like a mountain, there was simply no room for choice.

According to this treaty signed by both sides, the Ottoman Empire would be forced to recognize the complete independence of Montenegro, Serbia, and Romania, and to recognize the autonomous status of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Bosnia and Herzegovina would remain within the territory of the Ottoman Empire as an autonomous region, but the two countries would be responsible for their own internal affairs, and the Ottoman Empire would have no right to interfere.

Additionally, a Greater Bulgaria would be established in southern Romania, and the Ottoman Empire must allow the legal activities of Russian forces in the Bulgarian region.

The Ottoman Empire also needed to return the southwestern region of Bessarabia to Russia and cede Kars, Batum, Ardahan, and Bayazid to Russia.

In addition to territorial changes, the Russian government also demanded that the Ottoman Empire modify the transit rules for the Bosphorus Strait, requiring the Ottoman Empire to permanently permit warships from all Black Sea coastal countries, including Russia, to pass through the strait.

Originally, according to the Russians' requirements, the contents of this contract were to be kept strictly confidential for a short period to avoid provoking opposition from the British and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

But the Ottoman Empire was not stupid; the empire's top leadership knew that only the British could prevent the Ottoman Empire from being dismembered at this time.

Through the efforts of the Ottoman Empire's top leadership, the relevant contents of the Treaty of San Stefano were disclosed to the European media and became known to all European countries.

This immediately caused strong dissatisfaction in the British and Austro-Hungarian Empires.

The Emperor of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Franz Joseph I, could no longer sit still; he ordered the government to express criticism of this contract with a tough stance and issued a regional mobilization order.

The Russians had gained a large amount of land in the contract and could indirectly control the three countries of Montenegro, Serbia, and Romania by supporting their independence.

And what about the Austro-Hungarian Empire? Bosnia and Herzegovina, which the Russians had promised to hand over to the Austro-Hungarian Empire before starting the war, had only gained autonomous status and still remained within the territory of the Ottoman Empire.

This also meant that if things went as agreed in this contract, the Austro-Hungarian Empire could only sit and watch as Russia continuously expanded its influence in the Balkans, while it could only withdraw from the struggle for hegemony in the Balkans.

At the same time, the British Empire was also extremely dissatisfied. Although this treaty did not allow Russia to gain control of Constantinople, Russia had gained the right of free passage through the straits.

Without the restrictions of the straits, the Russian Black Sea Fleet would be able to head south into the Mediterranean without restraint, thereby disrupting the British arrangements at the two outlets of the Mediterranean.

The ambitions of the British were vast. After gaining control of the Suez Canal, they had achieved actual control over the Mediterranean.

With both the eastern and western outlets in the hands of the British, Mediterranean countries wanting to exit the Mediterranean had to look to the attitude of the British.

The British enjoyed this attitude; they were unwilling for any country to disrupt the existing system, let alone Russia, which had a strong competitive relationship with Britain.

After the Austro-Hungarian Empire announced partial mobilization, Britain directly sent the Royal Navy to the Constantinople Strait and convened a diplomatic conference, solemnly declaring that the Treaty of San Stefano signed between Russia and the Ottoman Empire was illegal and was a unilateral extortion of the Ottoman Empire by Russia.

The strong stance of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Britain put Russia under great pressure for a time, and Tsar Alexander II could only place his hopes on his ally, the German Empire.

The Germans were also in a difficult position at this time. Their two allies were almost at the point of turning against each other over the Balkan issue, and whichever one Germany chose would disrupt the policy of isolating France formulated by Chancellor Bismarck.

But if they did not take a stand, it would not only chill the hearts of their two allies but might also affect Germany's international status in Europe.

This kind of conflict between great powers was precisely the time to demonstrate national status and international influence; if the Germans acted like cowards, this matter would likely be mocked by the French for decades.

After careful consideration, German Chancellor Bismarck finally chose to mediate the conflict between the major powers as a neutral middleman.

This also reflected the ability of the Iron Chancellor Bismarck. Regardless of which side of the conflict Germany chose, it would seriously damage its relationship with the other side.

But it would not do for Germany not to step forward, so mediating this conflict as much as possible as a neutral party was the most appropriate choice.

Germany also had sufficient strength to act as this middleman. The so-called role of a middleman requires not only sufficient international status and influence but also sufficient strength to allow various countries to compromise with each other under relatively fair conditions.

If there is no sufficient strength, a situation will arise where mediation is attempted but all countries treat it as a deaf ear.

After Germany announced that it would mediate this conflict as an absolutely neutral middleman, Russia effectively lost the initiative.

The current situation was Russia fighting two, and one of the opponents was the most powerful country in the world today, the British Empire.

Under such circumstances, even though Russia had already completed its control over the various Balkan countries, it was forced to re-enter negotiations with Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

In late March 1878, at the invitation of the Germans, the British Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and Russia convened a conference in Berlin with the goal of resolving the competition and conflict among the Balkan countries.

As the most powerful country today, the diplomatic representative sent by Britain sternly denounced the treaty signed by Russia at the beginning of the meeting and stated that the British Empire would absolutely not accept such a treaty.

The British representative demanded a redrawing of the situation in the Balkans and ensured that the Bosphorus Strait remained under the control of the Ottoman Empire.

In this regard, the British also gave their reasons. Because the Ottoman Empire had not lost Constantinople, the Bosphorus Strait should theoretically belong to the internal waters of the Ottoman Empire.

Since it was the internal waters of the Ottoman Empire, Russia naturally had no right to pass through the strait freely.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire also put forward its own demands; they demanded the annexation of Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Serbia, and to change the Greater Bulgaria proposed by Russia into a Lesser Bulgaria to prevent the rapid expansion of Russian influence in the Balkans.

The Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov, who was attending this meeting, saw his face turn very gloomy upon hearing the demands of Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

If the plan proposed by Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire were truly executed, then what was the purpose of Russia fighting this war?

After painstakingly launching a war, all the benefits were taken by Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire; was Russia just doing this to control a tiny Romania?

Although Russia appeared somewhat powerless in the face of the pressure from the British Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov knew that he could not take the initiative to retreat.

If he had any thoughts of retreating, Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire would definitely propose even more excessive suggestions. For the sake of Russia's interests, he had to show a sufficiently tough attitude at this diplomatic conference, at least to let Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire understand that Russia was absolutely not a fat sheep for them to slaughter.

"Gentlemen, your proposal is absolutely unacceptable to us. The Treaty of San Stefano is a ceasefire treaty signed between our country and the Ottoman Empire. All the contents of the treaty are compensation from the Ottoman Empire to our country after its defeat, and there is nothing unreasonable about it," the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov, could not help but stand up and retort.

If he didn't speak up now, who could guarantee that the British and Austro-Hungarian foreign ministers opposite wouldn't say something even more outrageous?

"Reasonable compensation for defeat?" The British diplomatic representative smiled and said disdainfully: "Wasn't it your country that launched the war first? Your country launched the war without any reason and still wants the Ottoman Empire to bear the compensation for the defeat. Isn't this a bullying clause?"

The war deprived hundreds of thousands of Ottoman Empire civilians of their lives; this was already the most powerful punishment for the Ottoman Empire.

I believe that the Ottoman Empire was not at fault in this war. The Treaty of San Stefano needs to be revised; otherwise, our country cannot recognize its legitimacy."

Because of the strength of the British Empire, the British diplomatic representative spoke with great confidence. Even though he was sitting opposite the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov, who was deeply trusted by Tsar Alexander II, he was not in the least bit timid.

The diplomatic representative of the Austro-Hungarian Empire also nodded and chimed in: "Your country not only launched the war without any reason but also completely failed to abide by the agreement between our two countries before launching the war.

For such an act of breaking promises, our 38 million citizens and His Majesty Emperor Franz Joseph are very hateful of it.

Like Britain, we do not recognize the legitimacy of the Treaty of San Stefano and demand that we jointly revise this treaty under the witness of all of us to ensure that the interests of all nations and countries involved in this treaty will not be affected."

Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov never expected that while his attitude was tough, the attitudes of the British representative and the Austro-Hungarian representative were even tougher.

In order to make the Russians obediently retreat, the British representative and the Austro-Hungarian representative also successively expressed their pro-war stance.

The British representative stated that if the Russians did not agree to revise the Treaty of San Stefano, then the next time Britain and Russia met would be at the negotiating table of war.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire stated that the troops around Hungary had already begun mobilization. If Russia did not choose to retreat in this conflict, the Austro-Hungarian Empire would take the initiative to declare war on Russia.

Facing the almost naked war threats from the two countries, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov, finally hesitated.

If facing either Britain or the Austro-Hungarian Empire alone, Russia would not be afraid of the other's war threats.

But there was no way around it; the British Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire were united, and they were in a state of not fearing anyone in the world.

Let alone Russia, whose industry had just started, even a European upstart like Germany, or France, which once dominated Europe, could not have a calm dialogue without waves.

The naval power of the British Empire alone was enough to dominate the world, not to mention that the combined army power of Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire could pose a serious threat to Russia.

The British Empire was famous for its navy, but this did not mean that the British army's combat effectiveness was poor. Although it could not compare to countries like Germany and France that mainly dominated with their armies, among the major powers, the British army's combat effectiveness was enough to rank in the upper-middle tier.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire naturally goes without saying. The main ethnic group, the Austrians, that is, the South Germans, had quite fierce combat effectiveness, which could also be seen from the combat effectiveness of the German army.

Although the proportion of the Austrian population in the Austro-Hungarian Empire was not very high, the army mixed with Austrians, Hungarians, and other ethnic minorities did not have combat effectiveness that was too poor.

The biggest problem for the Austro-Hungarian Empire was the difficulty of language barriers among these ethnic groups. Not everyone was like Emperor Franz Joseph I, who had a talent for languages that ordinary people could not imagine.

Of course, no matter how many problems the Austro-Hungarian Empire had internally, they were one of the five traditional European powers, and their comprehensive strength was still very powerful.

Facing the joint war threat from Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Russian diplomatic ambassador could only look again at the German Chancellor Bismarck, who was presiding over the meeting.

Bismarck had already planned to remain completely neutral in this meeting so as not to seriously damage his relationship with Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Seeing the Russian diplomatic ambassador Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov looking at him, Bismarck could only shake his head obscurely, indicating that he was powerless to do anything about it.

Although he had guessed in his heart that Germany might remain indifferent, when Chancellor Bismarck shook his head at him, the Russian diplomatic ambassador Alexander could not help but show a look of disappointment.

Without Germany's support, this also meant that Russia could only fend for itself in this meeting, or rather, could only be slaughtered by Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

As the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander certainly understood the internal attitude and specific decisions of Russia. It was impossible for Russia to launch another war against Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire because Russia had already suffered heavy casualties in the Russo-Turkish War, and there was also a large expenditure of military budget.

The Russo-Turkish War had been fought for a year; if another war were fought between Russia and Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, even if Russia could achieve final victory, this deal would not be profitable at all.

Russia had a sufficient population, and the loss of troops was not something the Russian government was very worried about.

But while the troops were being lost, weapons and ammunition were also being consumed frantically. Whether produced domestically or imported from Spain, this was a huge military expenditure.

It would be fine if they could win the war in the end; Russia could still comfort itself with the land gained and the Balkan countries controlled.

But if the outcome of this war ended in failure, then Russia would lose everything.

Precisely because of this, long before attending the Berlin Conference, Tsar Alexander II had instructed the diplomatic ambassador to show a tough attitude in the early stages of the negotiations to see if he could force Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire to retreat.

If Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire were willing to pay the price of war to force Russia to submit, then Russia could only obediently fall into the net and raise its hands to announce surrender.

Sigh!

Alexander Mikhailovich Gorchakov sighed secretly in his heart, and then his whole person seemed to deflate, suddenly losing his spirit.

After struggling with his expression for a few seconds, Alexander said helplessly: "Let's do as you say, honorable envoys. Russia is willing to revise the Treaty of San Stefano, but the premise is that our country's interests also need to be sufficiently respected."

Seeing that the Russian diplomatic ambassador had chosen to retreat, the British and Austro-Hungarian representatives looked at each other and saw a hint of a smile in each other's eyes.

Although they had already crushed Russia in comprehensive strength by joining forces, this did not mean that they wanted to break out into a war with Russia.

What made Russia most troublesome was its huge population, which represented a massive army of millions. If the behemoth that was Russia were truly provoked and mobilized millions of troops, wouldn't Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire have to mobilize millions of troops to maintain their advantage on the battlefield?

Even if they could win the war by doing so, Britain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire would have to bear significant losses.

Especially for the Austro-Hungarian Empire, without any colonies, the mobilized troops were all from their own population.

Among the many ethnic groups in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the most reliable in terms of combat effectiveness was the Austrian army. If the Austrian army suffered heavy losses in the war, even the stability of the Austro-Hungarian Empire would be affected.

The reason why the Austro-Hungarian Empire was dismembered into several countries after World War I was largely because the heavily damaged Austria could no longer control Hungary.

Only by constantly maintaining the advantage of the main ethnic group over the ethnic minorities could the country achieve long-term stability.

This also reflected the importance of colonies. Although the colonial army armed with colonial indigenous people did not have strong combat effectiveness, they were excellent cannon fodder.

Even if a casualty ratio of 10 to 1 was achieved, it was not a loss for many colonial countries. Ten colonial indigenous people were certainly not as valuable as one of their own people, unless it was those countries with a very large population.

For Spain, even if they lost all their indigenous population, they would not want the Spanish domestic population to decrease by 1 million.

Not to mention that the war losses were extremely excellent young and middle-aged labor, and the value of these young and middle-aged labor could not be measured by the indigenous population.

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(End of this chapter)