Chapter 274: Reasons for Declaring War

There is a reason why Tunisia is able to attract the attention of France and Italy.

Aside from being located in North Africa and facing France and Italy across the sea, out of Tunisia's 160, 00 square kilometers of land, nearly 90, 00 square kilometers are arable—a scale that is quite staggering.

90, 00 square kilometers is equivalent to 9 million hectares, 22. 395 million acres, or 135 million mu of land.

If calculated based on the yield of several hundred jin per mu seen in later generations, 135 million mu of land would produce at least 70 billion to 100 billion jin of grain annually, which is between 35 million and 50 million tons.

According to the grain consumption levels of later generations, this amount of grain would be enough to feed over 100 million people. If viewed by the current world per capita grain consumption, 35 million tons of grain alone would be enough to feed at least 120 million people.

Of course, the actual situation certainly cannot be calculated this way. Even if all 90, 00 square kilometers of land were reclaimed as arable land, there would inevitably be some losses.

Between the fields, there must be canals, roads, farmers' residences, living facilities, and a series of other architectural spaces; the land ultimately reclaimed as arable would certainly not be as much as 90, 00 square kilometers, and the current yield per mu cannot reach the staggering figure of several hundred jin.

But what is certain is that whichever side, France or Italy, obtains Tunisia will be able to fully possess this natural treasure trove that can be vigorously developed.

Tunisia's land cannot feed hundreds of millions of people at present, but with a little reclamation, providing Europe with enough grain to feed millions is no problem.

More importantly, although Tunisia belonged to the Ottoman Empire for a long time, it existed as a vassal rather than being annexed into the Ottoman Empire.

The Tunisian people live in a semi-nomadic and semi-agricultural way; the Tunisia region can not only serve as a grain production area but also as an overseas pasture, providing large amounts of grain and meat products to whichever side, France or Italy, takes it.

Although there is no specific intelligence data on Tunisia's population, it is certain that the total population of all of Tunisia does not exceed 1 million, being approximately between 600, 00 and 800, 00.

For France and Italy, annexing Tunisia would be very simple, and completing the localization of Tunisia would be easily accomplished.

This is also one of the reasons why Italy has its eyes on Tunisia; for Italy, which does not have a particularly large population, controlling a piece of land that can be localized is definitely more attractive than a large colony thousands of miles away.

What's more, Tunisia is right before Italy's eyes.

The Apennine Peninsula is about 200 kilometers away from Italy's Sardinia at its closest point, while Sicily is less than 150 kilometers away from the Tunisian peninsula, which can completely be considered at their doorstep.

As for why Italy has not been able to take this land at its doorstep for so long, one can actually understand by looking at a map of the Mediterranean.

The Mediterranean stretches from the Strait of Gibraltar in the west to the west coast of the Arabian Peninsula in the east, with an east-west span reaching a staggering 3, 00-plus kilometers.

The shape of the Mediterranean is like the number 7, and Italy is located at the corner of this number 7. If Italy obtains Tunisia, the corner of the number 7 from south to north will be completely controlled by Italy.

This also means that Italy, having unified and become a Great Power, could potentially split the vast Mediterranean in two at any time.

Such a situation would not only disrupt the British layout at the two exits of the Mediterranean in the east and west, but it would also make the connection between France and its African colonies precarious.

This has also led to a relatively rare phenomenon, which is that both Britain and France maintain an opposing attitude regarding Italy's colonization of Tunisia.

It is precisely because Britain and France united to oppose Italy's colonization of Tunisia that Italy, which had its eyes on Tunisia early on, has never been able to obtain this land.

It is precisely because France understands Britain's wariness regarding Italy potentially cutting off the Mediterranean that it reached a relevant compromise with the British government several years ago.

France will voluntarily abandon its dispute with Britain in the Cyprus region in exchange for Britain maintaining friendly neutrality during France's process of colonizing Tunisia.

So-called friendly neutrality means that Britain can refrain from issuing any statements during France's invasion of Tunisia, but it also cannot take any hostile or obstructive actions.

The reason why Jules Ferry dared to plan the war to invade Tunisia was precisely because he was certain that Britain would not interfere with France's actions.

As long as Britain does not interfere with France's actions, France's invasion of Tunisia will absolutely not fail. As for France's neighbor and mortal enemy, Germany, it is absolutely impossible for them to stop France's colonial expansion at this time.

The actual reason is also very simple: Germany at this time does not want to face a war either.

In fact, as early as the negotiations with the French government after the end of the Franco-Prussian War, there were quite obvious differences within the German government.

The original plan of the then-Prussian Prime Minister Bismarck was to demand 1 billion francs in reparations from the French government to establish Prussia's advantage in the dispute with France once and for all.

But unexpectedly, the Junker nobles at the time clearly had greater ambitions, and it was precisely the Junker nobles' lion's share that ultimately turned the French government's reparations from 1 billion to 5 billion.

Although the German government obtained more funds, the hatred between France and Germany also became more intense. This is also the reason why Bismarck went all out to build a system to isolate France; once the French found an opportunity, France would very likely launch a war of retaliation.

For Germany at this time, if there is anything that can attract the attention of the French government, that would naturally be for the best.

As a neighbor, Germany understands French public opinion very well. If the French government is not allowed to release the repressed emotions within the country through a hearty colonial war, I am afraid that sooner or later an extreme French ruler will come to power, followed by the outbreak of a war with Germany.

This also means that before launching this war, France had already effectively obtained support from Britain and Germany.

About a few days later, Jules Ferry summoned the Minister of War again to inquire about the military's preparations for this war.

Considering that Italy is very likely to forcibly interfere in the war, the French Army's preparations for this war are quite sufficient.

The French Army will commit 50, 00 troops to the war to invade Tunisia, of which 30, 00 will be committed to the operations against Tunisia, and 20, 00 will serve as reserve troops to prevent a surprise attack by the Italian army.

In addition to the 50, 00 troops committed by the Army, Jules Ferry also plans to have the French Navy mobilize during the invasion of Tunisia to guard against a possible invasion by the Italian Navy at any time.

Although there is a high probability that the Italians do not have the guts to launch a war against France, the necessary precautions are still very necessary.

If they were really caught off guard by a successful Italian sneak attack, that would be a huge problem. Although the Italian army's combat effectiveness is not strong, the Italian navy still has a certain scale.

If the French Navy were to be sneak-attacked and lose a portion of its capital ships, whether it could win against Italy in a subsequent naval battle would really be a question.

Regarding the offensive plan proposed by the Army, Jules Ferry was generally quite satisfied. Deploying 50, 00 troops is not a very large investment for France; if they can obtain the entirety of Tunisia with a smaller expenditure, that would be a great achievement for both the French government and the military.

Regardless of the future of Tunisia, in short, for the current Prime Minister Jules Ferry, this is his solid political achievement and his trump card to protect himself from being impeached.

After confirming that the Army department had completed its preparations, Jules Ferry brought in the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gambetta, and requested the diplomatic department to find a suitable reason for France to declare war.

Although it is launching a war against an indigenous country, for Europe, which already values face, a relatively suitable reason for declaring war is still very important.

This can not only prove the legitimacy of launching the war but also reduce the reasons for other Great Powers to interfere in this war.

For example, Italy; if they want to interfere in the war between France and Tunisia, they must also find a suitable reason, otherwise, they would already be at a disadvantage in terms of the legitimacy of the war.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Gambetta did not rush to agree to Jules Ferry's order, but instead raised a new question to Jules Ferry: whether Spain, which shares the same roots as the Italian royal family, would help Italy interfere in the war between France and Tunisia.

The kings of Spain and Italy are of the same origin, which also means that the two countries have a quite close relationship. Even though the bond of this close relationship, Victor Emmanuel II, has been dead for three years, this does not affect the close cooperation between Spain and Italy.

If it were only Italy's opposition, the French side would have no worries at all. But if Spain also joined the ranks of opposing the war, the threat posed to France would be much greater.

First of all, Spain's international influence is still higher than Italy's. Although the comprehensive national strength of the two countries is not much different, Spain, as the world's third-largest colonial empire, has always maintained a decent status in Europe.

Historically, Spain first went through the chaotic period from the Bourbon dynasty to the republic and then back to the Bourbon dynasty, plus the loss of its last two large colonies, Cuba and the Philippines, before finally falling completely from the throne of the Great Powers and never being a first-class European country again.

But the current Spain is different; although the Cuba colony is gone, what Spain has obtained is a larger area of the Congo plus several pieces of land in West Africa.

The Philippines colony has also seen expansion, and the overall scale of Spain's colonies has multiplied several times over.

Coupled with the fact that Spain has already built several ironclad ships, its navy has become more powerful, and its colonies are increasing, its international influence naturally rises with the tide.

Spain and Italy uniting is indeed a trouble for France. More importantly, Spain also concerns whether France can break Germany's isolation plan.

If, for the sake of a Tunisia, Spain and Italy are both forced to the side of Germany, then what France might face next is a joint blockade by Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Russia, Italy, and Spain.

Facing a blockade by five Great Powers, even the British Empire would be seriously affected. For France at this time, this might be the worst outcome.

This is also the worry of Minister of Foreign Affairs Gambetta; if Spain is really willing to stand on Italy's side, this war is very likely to push France into the abyss.

"This is also what I am worried about." Jules Ferry did not hide his concern about Spain's attitude, but he also had sufficient confidence in the plan he had carefully prepared:

"But don't forget, France is a first-class Great Power, while Spain and Italy are only second-class Great Powers. As long as we can achieve a rapid occupation of Tunisia and establish the Tunisia colony before Italy and Spain can react, we don't have to worry about these problems that might not happen."

Jules Ferry's action plan is just four words: a quick victory.

In any case, Tunisia's population is only a few hundred thousand; with France deploying 30, 00 troops, there is great hope of occupying several important cities in Tunisia within a few days.

As long as the situation in Tunisia is controlled, even Spain and Italy will not be able to say anything about France's war.

Because at that time, if they want to change the situation of the war, they must be prepared to break out into a full-scale war with France.

Although France's development is somewhat slow compared to Britain and Germany, this still cannot stop France from becoming one of the most powerful countries in the world.

Currently, France has a population of over 38 million, while the total population of Spain and Italy combined is only 11 million more than France.

Is France afraid of Spain and Italy? Not at all. France is only afraid of Spain and Italy leaning towards Germany; in the end, it is still wary of Germany, this most powerful enemy.

French Minister of Foreign Affairs Gambetta nodded. In the absence of any better way, a quick victory is indeed the best solution.

As long as France controls the situation in Tunisia, how the war develops will be up to the French to decide.

Subsequently, Gambetta nodded and said to Jules Ferry with a solemn face: "I will prepare a reasonable reason for declaring war for the military, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs awaits your next order at any time."

In this era, it is still very simple to find a reason to declare war; it entirely depends on whether European countries want to launch a war against the indigenous people or not.

Since the French government has already decided to launch an invasion of Tunisia, the actions of the diplomatic department will naturally be quite rapid.

Just the next day, the French diplomatic department found a suitable reason for declaring war.

Although Tunisia is a whole region, there are different indigenous tribes and ethnic groups in this region.

Conflicts will break out between different tribes of the same ethnic group, let alone different tribes of different ethnic groups; the conflicts will only be more intense.

The indigenous people of Africa live by hunting, which also means that adjacent tribes will often have great conflicts because of the ownership of prey and land.

Unlike in the past, this time the two tribes in Tunisia that broke out in conflict were located in the border area near Algeria, and two European white men were unfortunately caught in the crossfire of the two conflicting tribes and tragically died.

Two Frenchmen were slaughtered by the indigenous people; for the French government, this is the best reason to declare war. If a government cannot even protect its own citizens, how can the public believe that the government can protect the country's land and all its people?

Facing this excellent reason for declaring war, the French government did not hesitate at all; the diplomatic department immediately launched a condemnation of the tribes that broke out in conflict in the Tunisia region and demanded that Tunisia immediately hand over the murderers who killed the two Frenchmen, with a deadline of 24 hours to execute it.

If Tunisia does not hand over all the murderers who killed the Frenchmen within 24 hours, then France will dispatch troops to avenge its citizens personally.

(End of chapter)