Chapter 336: Declaring War

It must be said, Gao Da saw something fresh in this Balkan crisis. If this Balkan crisis were to trigger a war between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Russia, or even ignite a world war, Gao Da truly could not fathom how the European situation would develop.

Because at this time, Russia had not yet reached an agreement with France, while the Austro-Hungarian Empire had Germany as its greatest ally.

Even if Russia were to rapidly lean toward France under diplomatic pressure, Britain, isolated outside the European continent, could not possibly join a Franco-Russian alliance.

This also meant that if war broke out, the European situation would enter a new phase. Although the historical trajectory was more advantageous to Gao Da, if the European situation took a new turn, there might perhaps be more possibilities for Spain.

Returning to this Balkan crisis.

The moment the Austro-Hungarian Empire issued its ultimatum, Serbia first contacted the Russian ambassador to Serbia, and only after receiving Russia's affirmative support did it reject the demands of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

From this, one can see that the Serbian government was not foolish. No matter how loudly the slogans of Greater Serbianism were shouted, Serbia was destined not to hold out for long if it faced the powerful Austro-Hungarian Empire alone without outside support.

No matter how weak a Great Power is, it is still a Great Power, and no matter how strong an ordinary country is, it is ultimately not a Great Power. The Austro-Hungarian Empire completely crushed Serbia in terms of industry, population, economy, and comprehensive national strength; if Russia were unwilling to support it, Serbia would absolutely not have resisted the Austro-Hungarian Empire so firmly.

So the question arises, why was Russia willing to risk war to support Serbia?

The most important reason for this was that the new Grand Duke of Bulgaria from two years ago came from the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha.

The prestige of this family goes without saying; its influence was in no way weaker than that of the German royal House of Hohenzollern, and it was one of the most famous families in the German region and even all of Europe.

In addition to holding its own Duchy of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha also controlled the thrones of Belgium, Portugal, and Bulgaria.

Because Queen Victoria's husband, Prince Albert, also came from the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, once Queen Victoria passed away and her son became King of Britain, Britain would also enter the era of the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha dynasty.

For Russia, it did not matter how glorious the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha was; what mattered was where this family came from and which country it was close to.

Clearly, this family from the German region was certainly close to Germany, which also meant that Russia would lose Bulgaria, a very important country among the South Slavic nations.

One must know that Romania and Greece are not considered South Slavic nations. The only truly major South Slavic nations were Bulgaria and Serbia.

The Bulgarian throne had already been snatched away by the Germans; if the Russians could not hold onto Serbia, the last remaining South Slavic nation of any scale, the Pan-Slavism promoted by Russia would also vanish into thin air.

This was also the reason for Russia's support of Serbia; they could not abandon Serbia, as this would be the only hope for Russia's expansion in the Balkan Peninsula.

Serbia, with Russian support, was not the least bit intimidated, but the Austro-Hungarian Empire, supported by Germany, Italy, and Spain, was likewise not the least bit intimidated.

As the deadline for the ultimatum set by the Austro-Hungarian Empire approached, various countries were speculating whether the Austro-Hungarian Empire would launch a war for this, and whether Russia would still not take a step back under the pressure of various nations.

On February 14, 1889, Emperor Franz Joseph I of the Austro-Hungarian Empire signed a mobilization order, partially mobilizing troops in the Hungarian and Croatian regions, and transferring some troops stationed in the Austrian region to the Croatian and Hungarian regions.

On the other side, Serbia was not to be outdone; Serbia issued a national mobilization order, and frequent conflicts broke out between the two sides along the border, as if war were imminent.

On the Russian side, Alexander III was ordering the diplomatic department to seek France's opinion.

Alexander III understood that once this war started, when it would end would no longer be up to Russia to decide.

Regarding the situation in the Balkan Peninsula, the British might not remain neutral. If Britain had to choose one side, then the British would likely support the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

The reason for this was also simple: the Austro-Hungarian Empire had no overseas territories. The Austro-Hungarian Empire had almost no conflict with Britain, whereas Russia had massive conflicts with Britain in the Balkan Peninsula and Central Asia.

Under these circumstances, Russia had to obtain the support of another Great Power before it could safely participate in this war.

Because almost all the Great Powers of Europe, except for Britain and France, had stated their positions, Alexander III could only place his hopes on the French.

In fact, ever since the defeat in the Russo-Turkish War, the ties between Russia and France had become much closer.

Both Germany and Russia understood that the League of the Three Emperors no longer had any possibility of continuing. Germany was wary of Russia's constant expansion, and Russia was likewise full of resentment toward Germany for not supporting it.

This was indeed the case; after the term of the League of the Three Emperors treaty ended, Germany and Russia did not choose to renew the treaty, but instead signed a new Reinsurance Treaty similar to a non-aggression pact.

The main purpose of this treaty was to achieve a non-aggression pact, ensuring a brief peace along the German-Russian border.

As for the disputes in the Balkan Peninsula, this Reinsurance Treaty did not mention them much. This actually represented one thing: that regarding the future situation of the Balkan Peninsula, Germany would firmly stand on the side of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Russia, of course, understood what this Reinsurance Treaty represented; at the same time the Reinsurance Treaty was signed, it reached further relevant cooperation treaties with France.

It was just that at the time, Russia did not want to destroy its relationship with Germany, so the Franco-Russian alliance that the French wanted to see was not achieved, but the relationship between France and Russia had indeed drawn closer.

Now that France had become the only country that might support Russia, Alexander III could no longer worry about his relationship with Germany.

If this war were to break out, Germany and Russia could very well turn into enemies. Under such circumstances, a France that might support Russia was clearly more important.

As the Russian ambassador contacted the French government, the pressure of the European situation fell onto the shoulders of the French government.

The French Prime Minister at this time was Charles Thomas Floquet, a radical republican.

Although quite intense in his ideology, he did not display a very decisive stance in handling such major international events.

When the Russian ambassador contacted the French government, Charles Thomas Floquet also fell into a very difficult choice. Although agreeing to the Russians' request would very likely facilitate a Franco-Russian alliance, this would completely break the diplomatic situation of France being isolated since the Franco-Prussian War.

But the problem was that doing so would very likely trigger a war of extremely large scale. The military power of a Franco-Russian alliance was certainly strong, but this alliance would have to face three enemies: Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and even Spain.

The close relationship between Italy, Germany, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire was well known, which also meant that Italy would very likely join them.

What was even more dire was that the relationships of France and Russia with Britain were not very good, and Britain might also join the German-Austrian alliance to check France and Russia.

If a larger-scale change in Europe were truly triggered because France supported Russia, this would be somewhat counterproductive for France.

During the time the French government was still hesitating, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was already making preparations for war.

At the same time, the Austro-Hungarian Empire contacted Germany and Italy respectively, requesting both sides to provide military support to the Austro-Hungarian Empire during the war.

According to the military alliance treaty signed by the three countries, once Russia declared war on the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Germany and Italy should immediately declare a state of war and send troops to support the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Faced with the request of his ally, King Umberto I of Italy immediately ordered his government to agree to the demands of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

However, the Italian side was not without ambition. Italy also wanted to expand in the Balkan Peninsula; they did not intend to compete with the Austro-Hungarian Empire for the Bosnia and Herzegovina region, but instead set their sights on Montenegro and Albania to the south of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

These two regions were separated from Italy by the sea, with the closest distance being only a little over 70 kilometers. For Italy, if it could acquire these two regions, it would be an extremely important supplement to its homeland.

When signing the alliance treaty, the Austro-Hungarian Empire had discussed with Italy the division of the situation in the Balkan Peninsula. Although the lands of Montenegro and Albania were not bad, they were too far away for the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which had no power to annex them.

If these two pieces of land, which it could not acquire itself, could be used to attract Italy to support its war, this was of course the best choice.

Therefore, after the Italian side put forward its demands, Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria quickly agreed to the Italian side's requirements.

Compared to Italy's straightforwardness, the attitude of the German side was not so decisive.

The German Emperor at this time was Wilhelm II, and the German Chancellor was Bismarck. These two had significant conflicts and contradictions in their administrative philosophies, and their views on this war were worlds apart.

For Bismarck, this war would not only intensify the contradictions between Germany and Russia, but was even more likely to force Russia to quickly lean toward France.

For Germany, this would not only destroy the diplomatic environment of isolating France that Bismarck had previously built, but would also make a Franco-Russian alliance a major threat to Germany.

Theoretically, the comprehensive strength of a Franco-Russian alliance would exceed that of a German-Austrian-Italian alliance. Germany's military strength could defeat either France or Russia, but the German-Austrian military strength could not defeat the combined armies of France and Russia.

As for Italy, judging by Italy's current military strength, although it was a Great Power, it was ultimately just a supporting actor in a war of this scale.

Bismarck did not think highly of Italy's military capability, nor did he feel that Italy could play a crucial role in a war of this scale.

If the European continent truly formed a situation of a Franco-Russian alliance opposing a German-Austrian alliance, for Germany, which was located right in the middle of the Franco-Russian alliance, this would be a hellish outcome.

Once war broke out, France and Russia would certainly prioritize attacking Germany. Once Germany's industry and agriculture were destroyed, the German-Austrian alliance would have no power to resist.

Do not look at the Austro-Hungarian Empire's land area as being in no way weaker than Germany's; if Germany were the first to be crushed by the Franco-Russian alliance, the Austro-Hungarian Empire would have no ability to resist the two super Great Powers of France and Russia.

After all, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was also a former enemy of Germany, and Bismarck knew this already-defeated enemy very well.

If the Austro-Hungarian Empire only consisted of the two regions of Austria and Bohemia, Bismarck would be willing to regard it as a medium-sized Great Power.

But if one added Hungary, Galicia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and other regions, the comprehensive strength of such a complete Austro-Hungarian Empire was actually much weaker.

The largest state in the country, Hungary, was not very fond of the Austrian Empire to begin with, and coupled with the many other ethnic groups in the country, the core German ethnic group did not have the advantage, which greatly weakened the strength of this powerful Great Power.

Compared to Bismarck, who did not think highly of this war, Wilhelm II, who had just become Emperor, was very optimistic about this war.

Wilhelm II believed that at present, this war was still Germany, Austria, and Italy facing one enemy, Russia. Moreover, Spain had also expressed its support for the Austro-Hungarian Empire; if the four Great Powers could unite to eliminate Russia first, the hellish outcome Bismarck spoke of naturally could not exist.

Even if a Franco-Russian alliance were eventually established, it did not necessarily represent a hellish outcome for Germany.

That is correct, Germany was indeed caught in a pincer attack by France and Russia from the east and west. But the problem was, if Spain could be drawn into the alliance, France would likewise be in a position of being caught in a pincer attack.

Although Germany was caught in a pincer attack, its security in the north and south could still be guaranteed. As long as one of France or Russia was eliminated first, this war could still end very quickly.

If France could be defeated again, or if Russia could be defeated, it would be a good thing for Germany.

Defeating France could result in large amounts of reparations, and even the seizure of France's colonies in Africa. Defeating Russia could result in the seizure of the Polish region occupied by Russia; the Polish plains were also land of extremely high value.

Because of the conflict in philosophy between the new Emperor and the original person in power, Germany did not express its attitude at the first opportunity.

The old Emperor in Vienna, Franz Joseph I, had a profound gaze; after confirming that there was no news from the German side, he kept his eyes on the situation map of the Balkan Peninsula for a long time, and finally issued his order to the government: "Declare war!"

(End of chapter)