Chapter 336: War Begins

Not to mention, Gao Da saw some freshness in this Balkan crisis. If this Balkan crisis triggered a war between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Russia, or even triggered a world war, Gao Da really couldn't figure out how the European situation would develop.

Because at this time, Russia had not reached an agreement with France, while the Austro-Hungarian Empire had Germany as its biggest ally.

Even if Russia moved rapidly toward France under diplomatic pressure, Britain, isolated outside the European continent, could not join the Franco-Russian agreement.

This also means that if a war breaks out, the European situation will enter a new stage. Although following the historical trend is more advantageous to Gao Da, if the European situation has new developments, perhaps there will be more possibilities for Spain.

Back to this Balkan crisis.

At the first moment when the Austro-Hungarian Empire issued an ultimatum to itself, Serbia first contacted the Russian Ambassador to Serbia, and only after obtaining Russia's affirmative support attitude did it reject the Austro-Hungarian Empire's demands.

From this aspect, one can also see that the Serbian government is not stupid. Don't look at how loudly the slogan of Greater Serbia is shouted; when Serbia faces the Austro-Hungarian Empire, a powerful power, alone, if there is no outside support, it is destined not to be able to resist for long.

No matter how weak a power is, it is still a power, and no matter how strong an ordinary country is, it is ultimately not a power. The Austro-Hungarian Empire comprehensively crushes Serbia in terms of industry, population, economy, and comprehensive national strength; if Russia is unwilling to support it, Serbia will absolutely not firmly resist the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

So the question comes, why is Russia willing to risk war to support Serbia?

The main reason for this is still because the new Grand Duke of Bulgaria two years ago came from the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family.

The fame of this family naturally goes without saying; its influence is no less than that of the German royal family, Hohenzollern, and it is one of the most famous families in the German region and even the whole of Europe.

Besides controlling its own Saxe-Coburg and Gotha Duchy, the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family also controls the thrones of Belgium, Portugal, and Bulgaria.

Because Queen Victoria's husband, Prince Albert, also came from the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family, once her son becomes King of Britain after Queen Victoria passes away, Britain will also soon enter the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha dynasty era.

For Russia, how glorious the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family is, is not important; what is important is where this family comes from and which country it is close to.

Clearly, this family from the German region is certainly close to Germany, which also means that Russia will lose Bulgaria, which is very important among the South Slavic nations.

One must know that Romania and Greece are not considered South Slavic nations. The truly major South Slavic nations are only two, namely Bulgaria and Serbia.

The Bulgarian throne has already been snatched away by the Germans; if the Russians cannot even hold onto Serbia, the last South Slavic nation of any scale, the Pan-Slavism that Russia promotes will also vanish.

This is also the reason why Russia supports Serbia; they cannot abandon Serbia, and this will also be Russia's only hope for expansion on the Balkan Peninsula.

Serbia, supported by Russia, is not afraid at all, but the Austro-Hungarian Empire, supported by Germany, Italy, and Spain, is also not afraid at all.

As the time for the ultimatum set by the Austro-Hungarian Empire was approaching, various countries were guessing whether the Austro-Hungarian Empire would launch a war for this, and whether Russia would still not take a step back under the pressure of various countries.

On February 14, 1889, Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph I signed a mobilization order, partially mobilizing the army in Hungary and Croatia, and partially transferring the army stationed in the Austrian region to the Croatia and Hungary regions.

On the other side, Serbia was not to be outdone; Serbia issued a national mobilization order, and conflicts frequently broke out between the two sides on the border line, as if war was about to arrive.

On the Russian side, Alexander III was ordering the diplomatic department to seek France's opinion.

Alexander III understood that once this war started, when this war would end would not be something Russia could decide.

Regarding the situation in the Balkan Peninsula region, the British might not remain neutral. If Britain had to choose one side, then the British would likely support the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

The reason for this is also very simple, which is that the Austro-Hungarian Empire does not have any overseas territories. The Austro-Hungarian Empire almost has no conflict with Britain, while Russia's conflicts with Britain on the Balkan Peninsula and in the Central Asian region are huge.

Under such circumstances, Russia must obtain the support of another power country to be able to participate in this war with peace of mind.

Because European powers, except for Britain and France, had almost all expressed their stance, Alexander III could only place his hope on the French.

Actually, since the failure of the Russo-Turkish War, the connection between Russia and France had become much closer.

Both Germany and Russia understood that the Three Emperors' Alliance no longer had the possibility of continuing. Germany feared Russia's continuous expansion, and Russia was also full of resentment that Germany did not support it.

Facts were indeed so; after the term of the Three Emperors' Alliance treaty ended, Germany and Russia did not choose to renew the treaty but instead signed a Reinsurance Treaty similar to a non-aggression treaty.

The main purpose of this treaty was to reach a non-aggression treaty, ensuring brief peace on the border line between Germany and Russia.

As for the dispute in the Balkan Peninsula region, this Reinsurance Treaty did not mention much. This actually also means one thing, which is that regarding the future situation on the Balkan Peninsula, Germany will firmly stand on the side of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Russia naturally also understood what this Reinsurance Treaty represented; at the same time the Reinsurance Treaty was signed, it reached a relevant treaty for further cooperation with France.

It's just that Russia at that time did not want to destroy the relationship with Germany, so the Franco-Russian alliance that the French wanted to see was not reached, but the relationship between France and Russia was indeed closer.

At this moment, France became the only country that might support Russia, and Alexander III could not care about the relationship with Germany anymore.

Even if this war broke out, Germany and Russia were very likely to evolve into enemies. Under such circumstances, a France that might support Russia was clearly more important.

As the Russian Ambassador contacted the French government, the pressure of the European situation also came to the shoulders of the French government.

The current French Prime Minister is Charles Thomas Floquet, who is a radical republican.

Although his philosophy was quite radical, he did not show a very decisive posture in handling such major international events.

When the Russian Ambassador contacted the French government, Charles Thomas Floquet also fell into a quite difficult choice. Although agreeing to the Russians' request was very likely to facilitate a Franco-Russian alliance, this would completely break the diplomatic situation where France had been isolated since the Franco-Prussian War.

But the problem is, doing so is very likely to trigger a war of extremely large scale. The military strength of the Franco-Russian alliance is indeed powerful, but this alliance has to face three enemies: Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and even Spain.

The close relationship between Italy and Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire is well known, which also means that Italy is also very likely to join in.

What is even more fatal is that the relationship between France and Russia and Britain is not very good, and Britain is also very likely to join the German-Austrian alliance to check and balance France and Russia.

If it really triggered a larger-scale change in Europe because France supported Russia, this would be somewhat counterproductive for France.

During the period when the French government was still hesitating, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was already preparing for war.

At the same time, the Austro-Hungarian Empire contacted Germany and Italy respectively, requesting both sides to provide military support to the Austro-Hungarian Empire during the war.

According to the military alliance treaty signed by the three countries, once Russia declares war on the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Germany and Italy should immediately announce entering a state of war and dispatch troops to support the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Facing the demands of its allies, Italian King Umberto I immediately ordered the government to agree to the Austro-Hungarian Empire's demands.

It's just that Italy is not without ambition. Italy also wants to expand in the Balkan Peninsula region; they do not intend to compete with the Austro-Hungarian Empire for the Bosnia and Herzegovina region but have set their sights on Montenegro and Albania in the south of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

These two regions are separated from Italy by the sea, and the closest distance is only 70 kilometers. For Italy, if they could obtain these two regions, it would be an extremely important supplement to their own territory.

When signing the alliance treaty, the Austro-Hungarian Empire discussed the division of the situation on the Balkan Peninsula with Italy. Although the land of Montenegro and Albania is not bad, for the Austro-Hungarian Empire, they are too far apart, and they have no ability to annex them at all.

If they could use these two pieces of land that they could not obtain to attract Italy to support their war, this would naturally be the best choice.

Therefore, after Italy put forward its own demands, Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph I quickly agreed to Italy's demands.

Compared to Italy's decisiveness, Germany's attitude was not so decisive.

The current German Emperor is Wilhelm II, and the German Prime Minister is Bismarck. These two have relatively large conflicts and contradictions in their administrative philosophies, and their views on this war are even more worlds apart.

For Bismarck, this war would not only aggravate the contradictions between Germany and Russia but would also be more likely to force Russia to lean toward France rapidly.

For Germany, this would not only destroy the diplomatic environment of isolating France that Bismarck had previously established but would also make the Franco-Russian alliance a major threat to Germany.

Theoretically speaking, the comprehensive strength of the Franco-Russian alliance is stronger than the German-Austrian-Italian alliance. Germany's military strength can defeat one of France or Russia, but the German-Austrian military strength cannot defeat the combined armies of France and Russia.

As for Italy, judging from Italy's current military strength, although it is a power, it is ultimately just a supporting role in a war of this scale.

Bismarck does not think highly of Italy's military ability, nor does he think Italy can play a crucial role in a war of this scale.

If the European continent really forms a situation where the Franco-Russian alliance opposes the German-Austrian alliance, for Germany, which is in the middle of the Franco-Russian alliance, this will be a hellish ending.

Once a war breaks out, France and Russia will certainly prioritize attacking Germany. Once Germany's industry and agriculture are destroyed, the German-Austrian alliance will have no power to resist.

Don't look at the Austro-Hungarian Empire's land area being no less than Germany's; if Germany is defeated by the Franco-Russian alliance first, the Austro-Hungarian Empire has no ability to resist the two super powers of France and Russia.

After all, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was also Germany's enemy before; for this enemy that had already been defeated, Bismarck still knew it very well.

If the Austro-Hungarian Empire only had the two regions of Austria and Bohemia, Bismarck would be willing to regard it as a medium-scale power.

But if you add Hungary, Galicia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and other regions, the comprehensive strength of such a complete Austro-Hungarian Empire is actually much weaker.

The largest state in the country, Hungary, was not very fond of the Austrian Empire, and coupled with the many other ethnic groups in the country, the core German ethnic group did not have an advantage, which greatly weakened the strength of this powerful power.

Compared to Bismarck not thinking highly of this war, the newly crowned Emperor Wilhelm II thought highly of this war.

Wilhelm II believed that the current war is still Germany, Austria, and Italy facing one enemy, Russia. Moreover, Spain also expressed support for the Austro-Hungarian Empire; if the four powers could unite to eliminate Russia first, the hellish ending that Bismarck spoke of naturally could not exist.

Even if the Franco-Russian alliance were eventually established, it would not necessarily represent a hellish ending for Germany.

That's right, Germany is indeed pinched by France and Russia from the east and west. But the problem is, if they could pull Spain to join the alliance, France would also be in a posture of being pinched from both sides.

Although Germany is pinched from both sides, the safety of the north and south can still be guaranteed. As long as they prioritize eliminating one of France or Russia, this war can still end quickly.

If they could defeat France again, or defeat Russia, it would be a good thing for Germany.

Defeating France could obtain a large amount of reparations, and even snatch France's colonies in Africa. Defeating Russia could snatch the Poland region occupied by Russia; the Polish plains are also land of extremely high value.

Because of the conflict in philosophy between the new Emperor and the original person in power, Germany did not express its attitude at the first opportunity.

The old Emperor of Vienna, Franz Joseph I, had a deep gaze; after determining that there was no news from Germany, he kept his gaze on the situation map of the Balkan Peninsula for a long time, and finally issued his order to the government: "War!"

(End of chapter) ===== CHAPTER 337 =====