Chapter 339: The Possibility of Overtaking France (Not Asking for Leave Today)

The British idea of preventing a Franco-Russian alliance was not just empty talk. To prevent the birth of a Franco-Russian alliance—a super-power far exceeding the German-Austrian alliance—British Prime Minister Robert Gascoyne-Cecil expressed his views on the Balkan War during an interview with a Reuters reporter on February 17, 1889.

Prime Minister Robert Gascoyne-Cecil first called upon the belligerents—the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Serbia, and Russia—to calm down and resolve the conflict in the Balkans through peaceful means.

Subsequently, the Prime Minister stated that Britain would not intervene in this war and would act as a neutral party to prevent the further expansion of the conflict as much as possible.

In order to spare the people of the Balkans and the warring nations from the distress of war, Britain announced it would do its utmost to prevent other countries from participating in this conflict, and called upon other European nations to refrain from escalating the war and to mediate it as much as possible.

Although Prime Minister Robert Gascoyne-Cecil only simply called on European countries not to let the war expand during the interview, no country would underestimate the words of this Prime Minister.

This was the most powerful person in the most powerful country in the world; if one were to truly ignore the British advice and let the war expand, who could guarantee that the British would continue to maintain a neutral role as they claimed?

The British threat was very effective; at least on the surface, the progress of the Franco-Russian alliance's contact had indeed slowed down significantly.

Regardless of whether the French were afraid of the British, the Russians were truly afraid of the British at this very moment.

After all, the competitive relationship between Russia and Britain was well known. If they were to offend Britain by courting the French, and Britain were to directly intervene in this war and join the German-Austrian side, then the Russians would truly have no way out.

Moreover, for the Russians, limiting the scale of the war was not a bad thing.

If the warring parties were only Germany and Austria vs. Russia and Serbia, although Russia was at a certain disadvantage, it was not hopeless.

The Russians could certainly court France, but the Austro-Hungarian Empire also seemed capable of bringing in many allies. Italy, which had an unknown treaty with the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and Spain, which had expressed support for the Austro-Hungarian Empire before the war even broke out, were both at the level of great powers.

As the saying goes, "a flurry of punches can kill an old master"; although the combined strength of Spain and Italy could not compare to super-powers like France and Russia, the result would be uncertain in a multi-on-one situation.

Coupled with the vague threats from the British, the Russians were successfully persuaded to limit the scale of the war and did not intend to ignite a super-war covering the entire continent of Europe.

Sharing the same decision as Russia were Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

To be honest, the news of Russia and France slowly drawing closer had terrified the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Even the German Empire, which had once defeated France, broke out in a cold sweat upon hearing the news that France and Russia might unite.

Although Europeans often spoke of the five great powers, the concept of the "four great powers" was actually more widely recognized. The four great powers were Britain, France, Germany, and Russia; these four countries led all other powers in industry, population, economy, and military strength.

If two of the four great powers were to form an alliance, unless the remaining two also formed an alliance, it would be difficult to resist them relying solely on the strength of one super-power.

The German-Austrian alliance was clearly no match for a Franco-Russian alliance. Unless the Germans could also court Italy and Spain, they might only be able to win with a four-on-two situation.

Precisely because neither side wanted the war to become uncontrollable, combined with the overt and covert threats from the British, the war was ultimately confined to the scope of four countries.

Although only four countries participated in this war, three of them were great powers. While the scale of the war was limited to a certain extent, theoretically, it could absolutely be considered a large-scale war.

Since the outbreak of the war, the Austro-Hungarian Empire had also been in contact with Spain. It was not just the Austro-Hungarian government contacting the Spanish government; the Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph I was also contacting Carlos, asking if Spain could join the war to help the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Originally, Carlos had adopted a stalling tactic, intending to wait for the British to state their position before making a corresponding decision. Since the British government had already made its stance known, Carlos naturally would not drag it out any longer.

The day after the British government made its statement, February 18, 1889, Carlos summoned the Austro-Hungarian Ambassador to Madrid to express Spain's attitude toward this war.

First, the Spanish royal family and government supported the Austro-Hungarian Empire in its fight against Serbia. However, for various reasons, Spain could not join this war, which naturally included the attitude expressed by the British Prime Minister the day before.

However, because of the alliance between Spain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Spain was still willing to provide any material resources to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and at pre-war market prices.

This point was quite important. Although the war had only been going on for a few days, it was certain that the prices of strategic materials would only get higher in the future.

Among these, the most important were food, medical supplies, weapons, equipment, ammunition, and so on; the future prices of these materials would definitely continue to climb. Spain being able to sell these materials to the Austro-Hungarian Empire at pre-war market prices was actually fulfilling its duty as an ally.

After all, during the war phase, the price growth of various materials was quite rapid. This was not a matter of a few percentage points of growth; the price growth of materials during wartime could very likely be a doubling or even several-fold increase, and the price gap involved was quite huge.

Of course, Carlos's willingness to sell materials to the Austro-Hungarian Empire at pre-war cost prices was not entirely due to the alliance with the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

It was mainly because there were not many great powers participating in the war in Europe; Britain and France, the two main great powers, were not involved, and they certainly would not miss the good opportunity to make a fortune during the war.

In this way, although prices would rise during the war, the extent of the increase should be limited. Spain maintaining pre-war market prices to sell materials, while earning a little less, could gain the goodwill of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Germany, which was also quite important.

In addition to Carlos promising to sell materials to the Austro-Hungarian Empire at pre-war market prices, Carlos also had the Spanish government reach a military agreement with the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

The main content of this military agreement was that the Spanish Ministry of Defense would send a military observer mission to the main battlefield in the Balkans to observe the war from the perspective of a bystander and to learn from the strengths and weaknesses of each country's military actions.

"Military observer mission" was no longer an unfamiliar term, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire did not refuse this.

Carlos's purpose in sending the military observer mission was also very simple: to let the Spanish military properly observe this war between European great powers and learn from the superior military ideas and strategic deployments of various countries.

Although the Spanish military had displayed quite excellent combat effectiveness in the process of fighting against African natives, the enemies were, after all, African natives who could not be taken seriously, which was completely different from European great powers.

The Spanish military could not become arrogant and complacent because of this; in such a good learning environment, an observer mission should still be sent.

In addition to sending a military observer mission, Spain also gifted a batch of rifles, artillery, and matching bullets and shells to the Austro-Hungarian Empire for free.

The reason for gifting this batch of weapons and equipment was also very simple: to use the Austro-Hungarian Empire to test the practicality of this equipment. As the saying goes, the environment of the African battlefield was completely different from that of the European battlefield; one could be careless when fighting natives, but one must be cautious when fighting European countries.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire naturally understood the idea behind Spain gifting this batch of weapons and equipment for free. But for the Austro-Hungarian Empire, such a batch of free weapons and equipment was not something to turn down.

After reaching the relevant cooperation agreement with the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Spanish government also revealed its attitude to the outside world. Similar to the British Prime Minister's attitude, the Spanish government also advocated for both sides of the war to calm down,

and not to increase casualties in vain.

Countries not participating in the war should maintain a neutral role to avoid getting involved in this war and making the situation even larger. The successive statements from Britain and Spain were actually setting a tone for this war.

France and Italy, which had not yet stated their positions, would also find it difficult to join this war; after all, they did not have many excuses to join.

France and Russia currently had no alliance relationship; if France wanted to join this war, it could only reach a temporary alliance with Russia.

But doing so would make the objective too obvious; not only would it cause France to lose public support in this war, but it would also make France's diplomatic situation even more awkward.

A Franco-Russian alliance would make all European great powers wary, and by then, it might be the Franco-Russian alliance that ended up isolated.

As for Italy, as long as they did not want to make the Triple Alliance treaty between Germany, Austria, and Italy public, they had no excuse to join this war.

Moreover, since Britain and Spain had both stepped forward to state their positions, Italy had no way to join even if they wanted to.

Inside the Madrid Royal Palace, after confirming that only three great powers—Germany, Austria, and Russia—were participating in this war, Carlos also lowered his attention to this conflict.

For Carlos, the outcome of this war no longer mattered. What Carlos truly cared about was how long this war could last and what Spain could actually harvest from it.

Judging from the current European situation, once Germany and Russia were mired in war, Spain would have more opportunities to overtake the four great powers.

Among the remaining European countries, the only one that could surpass Spain in development speed and economic prosperity might be Britain; the French development speed had stagnated too much after the Franco-Prussian War.

Currently, within the Spanish government, there was already a slogan about overtaking the four great powers, and there were even more exaggerated slogans about overtaking England.

However, the one most recognized by government officials was the slogan: "Overtake France in five years, catch up to Germany in ten."

As for overtaking the British, for the current Spain, that was indeed just a fantasy.

Not to mention whether catching up to Germany could be realized, overtaking France was indeed not just a slogan for the current Spain.

First, look at steel production, which was important for measuring industrial scale.

Throughout 1888, Spain's annual steel production reached about 500, 00 tons; this level was already among the best in Europe.

In the entire world, the only countries that could surpass Spain in steel production were Britain, the United States, Germany, and France, and among them, only Britain, the United States, and Germany had a significant gap with Spain.

Although France's steel production exceeded Spain's, it was only a little over 600, 00 tons, just over 100, 00 tons more than Spain.

According to the growth rate of French industry in recent years, even if Spain's industry could not overtake France in five years, it would basically be able to maintain the same level as France, meaning the gap would be within 50, 00 tons.

Of course, in terms of pig iron production, France was still slightly ahead of Spain. However, France's lead relied on a larger population and colonies, and this lead was also constantly being narrowed by Spain.

In the chemical industry and other industries, France also maintained a slight lead. But in the Second Industrial Revolution, the French had clearly fallen behind Spain.

Spain did not have much of an industrial foundation from the First Industrial Revolution, but this was not entirely a bad thing. The First Industrial Revolution was, after all, biased toward the basics; as long as one could catch up with the Second Industrial Revolution, one could make up for the deficiencies of the First.

As it stood, Spain could no longer be said to be catching up to the Second Industrial Revolution, but was instead one of the leading countries of the Second Industrial Revolution.

Especially in terms of electricity, the "City That Never Sleeps" was pioneered by Spain, and large-scale power generation equipment was also transmitted from Spain to various European countries.

Although European countries currently had a "blooming of many flowers" in power generation and electrical applications, as the former founding country, Spain's achievements in electricity could be considered top-tier in Europe.

Even if Spain's population was not as large as other European countries, in terms of power generation and per capita electricity consumption, Spain was currently still at the forefront of Europe.

Currently, in Madrid and Barcelona, over 60% and over 50% of factories respectively used electrical equipment.

These two cities, where Spanish industry was most developed, could actually represent the current application of electricity in the Spanish industrial sector.

Compared to industrial electricity usage, the situation for civilian electricity usage was worse.

Even in Spain's two most developed cities, the number of households that could currently access electricity was only about one-third of the total number of households in the two cities.

This was an achievement obtained only after power generation equipment was constantly updated and electricity costs decreased with the continuous growth of power generation.

Compared to Spain, the electricity usage in other countries was even worse. Even in the capitals of European great powers, few countries could achieve an electricity penetration rate of over one-third.

Currently, there were two cities with the lowest electricity penetration rates among European capitals: the first was the Russian capital, Saint Petersburg, and the second was the French capital, Paris.

It was normal for Saint Petersburg's electricity penetration rate to be low; after all, the Russian government did not have much money to build electricity infrastructure, and the current electricity supply could not support Russia's vast territory.

There was also a reason for Paris's low electricity penetration rate. Compared to Berlin, Vienna, and Rome, Paris had a larger population, which made electricity penetration even more difficult.

Even though many Parisian wealthy merchants and capitalists had enjoyed electricity, there were still a large number of commoners and the middle class who could not access this new energy source in the short term.

Coupled with the French government investing less and less in the industrial revolution, French factories were also unwilling to connect to electricity to increase their costs.

This led to the fact that although France was one of the four great powers of Europe, it was actually lagging behind many European powers in the use and popularization of electricity.

I can still hold on after taking some medicine; I won't ask for leave today. Thank you all for your support.

(End of chapter)