Chapter 349: Sea Power Theory and the Naval Construction Plan

It must be said, Carlo saw something novel in this Balkan crisis. If this Balkan crisis were to trigger a war between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Russia, or even ignite a world war, Carlo truly could not fathom how the European situation would develop.

Because at this time, Russia had not yet reached an agreement with France, while the Austro-Hungarian Empire had Germany as its greatest ally.

Even if Russia were to rapidly lean toward France under diplomatic pressure, Great Britain, isolated outside the European continent, could not possibly join a Franco-Russian alliance.

This also meant that if war broke out, the European situation would enter a new phase. Although the historical trajectory was more advantageous to Carlo, if the European situation took a new turn, there might perhaps be more possibilities for Spain.

Returning to this Balkan crisis.

The moment the Austro-Hungarian Empire issued its ultimatum, Serbia first contacted the Russian ambassador to Serbia. Only after receiving Russia's affirmative stance of support did they refuse the demands of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

From this, one can see that the Serbian government was not foolish. No matter how loudly the slogans of Greater Serbianism were shouted, Serbia was destined not to hold out for long if it had to face the powerful Austro-Hungarian Empire alone without external support.

A weak Great Power is still a Great Power, and a strong ordinary nation is, in the end, not a Great Power. The Austro-Hungarian Empire completely crushed Serbia in terms of industry, population, economy, and comprehensive national strength; if Russia were unwilling to support them, Serbia would absolutely not resist the Austro-Hungarian Empire with such determination.

So the question arises: why was Russia willing to risk war to support Serbia?

The primary reason for this was that two years ago, the new Prince of Bulgaria came from the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family.

The prestige of this family goes without saying; its influence was in no way weaker than that of the German royal house of Hohenzollern, making it one of the most famous families in the German region and even all of Europe.

In addition to controlling their own Duchy of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, the family also held the thrones of Belgium, Portugal, and Bulgaria.

Because Queen Victoria's husband, Prince Albert, also came from the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family, once Queen Victoria passed away and her son became King of England, England would also enter the era of the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha dynasty.

For Russia, how glorious the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family was did not matter; what mattered was where this family came from and which country it was close to.

Clearly, this family from the German region was certainly close to Germany, which also meant that Russia would lose Bulgaria, a very important nation among the South Slavic states.

One must know that Romania and Greece were not considered South Slavic states. There were only two truly major South Slavic states: Bulgaria and Serbia.

The Bulgarian throne had already been snatched away by the Germans; if the Russians could not hold onto Serbia, the last remaining South Slavic state of any scale, the Pan-Slavism that Russia championed would also vanish into thin air.

This was the reason Russia supported Serbia; they could not abandon Serbia, as it was the only hope for Russian expansion in the Balkan Peninsula.

Serbia, with Russian support, was not the least bit intimidated, but the Austro-Hungarian Empire, supported by Germany, Italy, and Spain, was likewise not the least bit intimidated.

As the deadline for the ultimatum set by the Austro-Hungarian Empire approached, various nations were speculating whether the Austro-Hungarian Empire would launch a war over this, and whether Russia would still refuse to take a step back under the pressure of various nations.

On February 14, 1889, Emperor Franz Joseph I of the Austro-Hungarian Empire signed a mobilization order, partially mobilizing troops in the Hungarian and Croatian regions, and transferring some troops stationed in the Austrian region to the Croatian and Hungarian regions.

On the other side, Serbia was not to be outdone; Serbia issued a national mobilization order, and frequent clashes broke out between the two sides along the border, as if war were imminent.

On the Russian side, Alexander III was ordering the diplomatic department to seek France's opinion.

Alexander III understood that once this war began, when it would end would no longer be up to Russia to decide.

Regarding the situation in the Balkan Peninsula, the British might not necessarily remain neutral. If Britain had to choose one side, then the British would most likely support the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

The reason for this was simple: the Austro-Hungarian Empire had no overseas territories. The Austro-Hungarian Empire had almost no conflicts with Britain, whereas Russia's conflicts with Britain in the Balkan Peninsula and Central Asia were immense.

Under these circumstances, Russia had to obtain the support of another Great Power to be able to participate in this war with peace of mind.

Because the Great Powers of Europe, with the exception of Britain and France, had all declared their positions, Alexander III could only place his hopes on the French.

In fact, ever since the defeat in the Russo-Turkish War, the ties between Russia and France had become much closer.

Both Germany and Russia understood that the League of the Three Emperors could no longer be sustained. Germany was wary of Russia's constant expansion, and Russia was equally full of resentment toward Germany for not supporting it.

This was indeed the case; after the term of the League of the Three Emperors treaty expired, Germany and Russia did not choose to renew it, but instead signed a new Reinsurance Treaty similar to a non-aggression pact.

The main purpose of this treaty was to achieve a non-aggression pact, ensuring a brief peace along the German-Russian border.

As for the disputes in the Balkan Peninsula, this Reinsurance Treaty did not mention them much. This actually represented one thing: that in the future, regarding the situation in the Balkan Peninsula, Germany would stand firmly on the side of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Russia, of course, understood what this Reinsurance Treaty represented; at the same time the Reinsurance Treaty was signed, they reached a treaty concerning further cooperation with France.

It was just that at the time, Russia did not want to destroy its relationship with Germany, so the Franco-Russian alliance that the French wanted to see was not achieved, but the relationship between France and Russia had indeed grown closer.

Now that France had become the only country that might support Russia, Alexander III could no longer worry about his relationship with Germany.

If this war were to break out, Germany and Russia could very well turn into enemies. Under such circumstances, a France that might support Russia was clearly more important.

As the Russian ambassador contacted the French government, the pressure of the European situation fell onto the shoulders of the French government.

The French Prime Minister at this time was Charles Thomas Floquet, a radical republican.

Although his ideology was quite intense, he did not display a very decisive stance in handling such major international events.

When the Russian ambassador contacted the French government, Charles Thomas Floquet also fell into a very difficult choice.

Although agreeing to the Russians' request would very likely facilitate a Franco-Russian alliance, this would completely break the diplomatic isolation France had faced since the Franco-Prussian War.

But the problem was that doing so would very likely trigger a war of extremely large scale. The military strength of a Franco-Russian alliance would certainly be powerful, but this alliance would have to face three enemies: Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and even Spain.

The intimate relationship between Italy, Germany, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire was well known, which also meant that Italy would very likely join them.

Even more deadly was that neither France nor Russia had good relations with Britain, and Britain might very well join the German-Austrian alliance to check France and Russia.

If a larger-scale change in Europe were truly triggered because France supported Russia, it would be a case of the loss outweighing the gain for France.

While the French government was still hesitating, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was already making preparations for war.

At the same time, the Austro-Hungarian Empire contacted Germany and Italy separately, requesting that both sides provide military support to the Austro-Hungarian Empire during the war.

According to the military alliance treaty signed by the three countries, once Russia declared war on the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Germany and Italy should immediately declare a state of war and send troops to support the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Faced with the demands of their ally, King Umberto I of Italy immediately ordered the government to agree to the demands of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

However, the Italian side was not without ambition. Italy also wanted to expand in the Balkan Peninsula; they did not intend to compete with the Austro-Hungarian Empire for the Bosnia and Herzegovina region, but instead set their sights on Montenegro and Albania to the south of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

These two regions were separated from Italy by the sea, with the closest point being only 70-plus kilometers away. For Italy, if they could acquire these two regions, it would be an extremely important supplement to their homeland.

When signing the alliance treaty, the Austro-Hungarian Empire had discussed the division of the situation in the Balkan Peninsula with Italy. Although the lands of Montenegro and Albania were not bad, they were too far away for the Austro-Hungarian Empire, which had no power to annex them.

If they could use these two pieces of land they could not obtain to attract Italy to support their war, this was, of course, the best choice.

Therefore, after the Italian side put forward their demands, Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria quickly agreed to the Italian side's requirements.

Compared to Italy's straightforwardness, the attitude of the German side was not so decisive.

The German Emperor at this time was Wilhelm II, and the German Chancellor was Bismarck. These two had significant conflicts and contradictions in their administrative philosophies, and their views on this war were worlds apart.

For Bismarck, this war would not only intensify the contradictions between Germany and Russia, but was even more likely to force Russia to lean rapidly toward France.

For Germany, this would not only destroy the diplomatic environment of isolating France that Bismarck had previously established, but would also make a Franco-Russian alliance a major threat to Germany.

Theoretically, the comprehensive strength of a Franco-Russian alliance would exceed that of a German-Austrian-Italian alliance. Germany's military strength could defeat either France or Russia, but the German-Austrian military strength could not defeat the combined armies of France and Russia.

As for Italy, judging by Italy's current military strength, although it was a Great Power, it was ultimately just a supporting actor in a war of this scale.

Bismarck did not think highly of Italy's military capabilities, nor did he feel that Italy could play a crucial role in a war of this scale.

If the European continent truly formed a situation where a Franco-Russian alliance confronted a German-Austrian alliance, for Germany, which was situated right in the middle of the Franco-Russian alliance, this would be a hellish outcome.

Once war broke out, France and Russia would certainly prioritize attacking Germany. Once Germany's industry and agriculture were destroyed, the German-Austrian alliance would have no power to resist.

Do not look at the Austro-Hungarian Empire's land area as being no weaker than Germany's; if Germany were the first to be crushed by the Franco-Russian alliance, the Austro-Hungarian Empire would have no ability to resist two super Great Powers like France and Russia.

After all, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was previously an enemy of Germany, and Bismarck knew this defeated enemy very well.

If the Austro-Hungarian Empire only consisted of the two regions of Austria and Bohemia, Bismarck would be willing to regard it as a medium-sized Great Power.

But if one added Hungary, Galicia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and other regions, the comprehensive strength of such a complete Austro-Hungarian Empire was actually much weaker.

The largest state in the country, Hungary, was not very fond of the Austrian Empire to begin with, and coupled with the many other ethnic groups in the country, the core German ethnic group did not have the advantage, which greatly weakened the strength of this powerful Great Power.

Compared to Bismarck, who did not think highly of this war, the newly crowned Emperor Wilhelm II was very optimistic about it.

Wilhelm II believed that at present, this war was still Germany, Austria, and Italy facing one enemy, Russia. Moreover, Spain had also expressed its support for the Austro-Hungarian Empire; if the four Great Powers could unite to eliminate Russia first, the hellish outcome Bismarck spoke of naturally could not exist.

Even if a Franco-Russian alliance were eventually formed, it would not necessarily represent a hellish outcome for Germany.

That's right, Germany was indeed being attacked from both the east and west by France and Russia. But the problem was, if they could win over Spain to join the alliance, France would likewise be in a position of being attacked from both sides.

Although Germany was being attacked from both sides, the security of its north and south could still be guaranteed. As long as they prioritized eliminating either France or Russia, this war could still end very quickly.

If they could defeat France again, or defeat Russia, it would be a good thing for Germany.

Defeating France could result in massive reparations, and they could even seize France's colonies in Africa. Defeating Russia could result in seizing the Polish region occupied by Russia; the Polish plains were also land of extremely high value.

Because of the conflict in philosophy between the new Emperor and the original person in power, Germany did not express its attitude at the first opportunity.

The old Emperor in Vienna, Franz Joseph I, had a profound gaze. After confirming there was no news from the German side, he kept his eyes on the situation map of the Balkan Peninsula for a long time, and finally issued his order to the government: "Go to war!"

(End of chapter)