Chapter 349

Don't say, Gao Da saw some freshness in this Balkan crisis. If this Balkan crisis triggered a war between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Russia, or even triggered a world war, Gao Da really couldn't figure out how the European situation would develop.

Because Russia at this time had not reached an entente with France, while the Austro-Hungarian Empire had Germany as its biggest ally.

Even if Russia moved rapidly toward France under diplomatic pressure, Britain, isolated outside the European continent, could not join the Franco-Russian Entente.

This also means that if a war breaks out, the European situation will enter a new stage. Although following the historical trend is more advantageous to Gao Da, if the European situation has new developments, perhaps there will be more possibilities for Spain.

Back to this Balkan crisis.

At the first moment the Austro-Hungarian Empire issued an ultimatum to itself, Serbia contacted the Russian ambassador to Serbia, and after obtaining Russia's affirmative support attitude, it refused the Austro-Hungarian Empire's request.

From this aspect, one can also see that the Serbian government is not stupid. Don't look at how loud the slogan of Greater Serbianism is shouted; when Serbia faces the Austro-Hungarian Empire, a powerful power, alone, if there is no outside support, it is destined not to resist for long.

Even the weakest power is a power, and the strongest ordinary country is ultimately not a power. The Austro-Hungarian Empire completely crushed Serbia in terms of industry, population, economy, and comprehensive national strength; if Russia is unwilling to support itself, Serbia will definitely not resist the Austro-Hungarian Empire firmly.

So the question comes, why is Russia willing to risk war to support Serbia?

The main reason is because two years ago, the new Prince of Bulgaria came from the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family.

The fame of this family naturally goes without saying; its influence is in no way weaker than the German royal family Hohenzollern, and it is one of the most famous families in the German region and even the whole of Europe.

Besides mastering its own Saxe-Coburg and Gotha Duchy, the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family also controls the thrones of Belgium, Portugal, and Bulgaria.

Because Queen Victoria's husband, Prince Albert, also came from the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family, once Queen Victoria passes away and her son becomes the King of Britain, Britain will also be about to enter the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha dynasty era.

For Russia, how brilliant the Saxe-Coburg and Gotha family is is not important; what is important is where this family comes from and which country it is close to.

It is very clear that this family from the German region is certainly close to Germany, which also means that Russia will lose Bulgaria, which is very important among the South Slavic countries.

You know, Romania and Greece are not considered South Slavic countries. The truly major South Slavic countries are only two, which are Bulgaria and Serbia.

The throne of Bulgaria has been snatched away by the Germans; if the Russians can no longer keep Serbia, the last South Slavic country of scale, the Pan-Slavism that Russia promotes will also cease to exist.

This is also the reason why Russia supports Serbia; they cannot abandon Serbia, and this will also be Russia's only hope for expansion in the Balkan Peninsula.

Serbia, with Russia's support, is not afraid at all, but the Austro-Hungarian Empire, with the support of Germany, Italy, and Spain, is also not afraid at all.

As the time for the ultimatum set by the Austro-Hungarian Empire is about to arrive, various countries are guessing whether the Austro-Hungarian Empire will launch a war for this, and whether Russia will still not retreat a step under the pressure of various countries.

On February 14, 1889, Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph I signed a mobilization order, partially mobilizing the troops in Hungary and Croatia, and partially transferring the troops stationed in the Austrian region to the Croatia and Hungary regions.

On the other side, Serbia did not show weakness; Serbia issued a national mobilization order, and the two sides frequently broke out conflicts on the border line, and it seemed that war was about to come.

On the Russian side, Alexander III is ordering the diplomatic department to seek France's opinion.

Alexander III understands that once this war breaks out, when to end this war is no longer up to Russia.

Regarding the situation in the Balkan Peninsula region, the British may not necessarily maintain neutrality. If Britain insists on choosing one of the sides, then the British will likely support the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

The reason for this is also very simple, which is that the Austro-Hungarian Empire does not have any overseas territory. The Austro-Hungarian Empire has almost no conflict with Britain, while Russia has had huge conflicts with Britain in the Balkan Peninsula and Central Asia regions.

In this situation, Russia must obtain the support of another powerful country to be able to participate in this war with peace of mind.

Because the powers of Europe, besides Britain and France, have almost all expressed their stance, Alexander III can only place his hope on the French.

In fact, since the failure of the Russo-Turkish War, the connection between Russia and France has become much closer.

Whether it is Germany or Russia, they both understand that the Three Emperors' League no longer has the possibility of continuation. Germany fears Russia's continuous expansion, and Russia is also full of resentment toward Germany for not supporting itself.

Facts are indeed so; after the term of the Three Emperors' League treaty ended, Germany and Russia did not choose to renew the treaty but signed a Reinsurance Treaty similar to a non-aggression treaty.

The main purpose of this treaty is to reach a non-aggression treaty, ensuring that the border line between Germany and Russia gains short-term peace.

As for the debate in the Balkan Peninsula region, this Reinsurance Treaty did not mention too much. This actually also represents one thing, which is that in the future regarding the situation in the Balkan Peninsula, Germany will firmly stand on the side of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Russia naturally also understands what this Reinsurance Treaty represents; at the same time the Reinsurance Treaty was signed, it reached a treaty regarding further cooperation with France.

It's just that Russia at that time did not want to destroy the relationship with Germany, so the Franco-Russian Alliance that the French wanted to see was not reached, but the relationship between France and Russia was indeed closer.

At the moment, France has become the only country that might support Russia, and Alexander III can no longer care about the relationship with Germany.

Even if this war breaks out, Germany and Russia are very likely to evolve into enemies. In such a situation, a France that might support Russia is obviously more important.

As the Russian ambassador contacted the French government, the pressure of the European situation also came to the shoulders of the French government.

The French Prime Minister at this time is Charles Thomas Floquet, who is a radical republican.

Although he is quite intense in his philosophy, he did not show a very decisive attitude in handling such international major events.

When the Russian ambassador contacted the French government, Charles Thomas Floquet also fell into a quite difficult choice.

Although agreeing to the Russians' request is very likely to facilitate the Franco-Russian Alliance, this will completely break the diplomatic situation of France being isolated since the Franco-Prussian War.

But the problem is that doing so is very likely to trigger a war of extremely huge scale. The military strength of the Franco-Russian Alliance is certainly powerful, but this alliance has to face three enemies: Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and even Spain.

The close relationship between Italy and Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire is well known, which also means that Italy is very likely to join in.

What's more fatal is that France and Russia's relationship with Britain is not very good, and Britain is also very likely to join the German-Austrian Alliance to balance France and Russia.

If it really triggers a larger-scale change in Europe because France supports Russia, this would be a bit of a loss for France.

During the time the French government was still hesitating, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was already making preparations for war.

At the same time, the Austro-Hungarian Empire contacted Germany and Italy respectively, requesting both sides to provide military support to the Austro-Hungarian Empire during the war.

According to the military alliance treaty signed by the three countries, once Russia declares war on the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Germany and Italy should immediately announce entering a state of war and send troops to support the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Facing the request of its ally, Italian King Umberto I immediately ordered the government to agree to the request of the Austro-Hungarian side.

It's just that the Italian side is not without ambition. Italy also wants to expand in the Balkan Peninsula region; they do not intend to compete with the Austro-Hungarian Empire for the Bosnia and Herzegovina region but have placed their eyes on Montenegro and Albania in the south of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

These two regions face Italy across the sea, and the closest distance is only 70-plus kilometers apart. For Italy, if it can obtain these two regions, it will have an extremely important supplement to its own territory.

When signing the alliance treaty, the Austro-Hungarian Empire discussed with Italy the division of the situation regarding the Balkan Peninsula. Although the land of Montenegro and Albania is not bad, for the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the distance is too far, and it is fundamentally unable to annex them.

If these two pieces of land that it cannot obtain can be used to attract Italy to support its war, this is naturally the best choice.

Therefore, after the Italian side put forward its own requirements, Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph I quickly agreed to the requirements of the Italian side.

Compared with Italy's straightforwardness, Germany's attitude was not so decisive.

The German Emperor at this time is Wilhelm II, and the German Prime Minister is Bismarck. The administrative philosophies of these two have relatively large conflicts and contradictions, and the two have vastly different views on this war.

For Bismarck, this war will not only aggravate the contradictions between Germany and Russia but is more likely to force Russia to lean toward France rapidly.

For Germany, this will not only destroy the diplomatic environment of isolating France that Bismarck previously established but will also make the Franco-Russian Alliance a serious threat to Germany.

Theoretically speaking, the comprehensive strength of the Franco-Russian Alliance is to exceed the German-Austrian-Italian Alliance. Germany's military strength can defeat one of France and Russia, but the German-Austrian military strength cannot defeat the combined armies of France and Russia.

As for Italy, looking at Italy's current military strength, although it is a power, it is ultimately just a supporting role in a war of this scale.

Bismarck does not look favorably on Italy's military ability, nor does he feel that Italy can play a crucial role in a war of this scale.

If the European continent really forms a situation of the Franco-Russian Alliance countering the German-Austrian Alliance, for Germany, which is in the middle of the Franco-Russian Alliance, this will be a hellish ending.

Once a war breaks out, France and Russia will definitely prioritize attacking Germany. Once Germany's industry and agriculture are destroyed, the German-Austrian Alliance will have no power to resist.

Don't look at the fact that the Austro-Hungarian Empire's territory is in no way weaker than Germany's; if Germany is crushed by the Franco-Russian Alliance first, the Austro-Hungarian Empire has no ability to resist facing the two super powers of France and Russia.

After all, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was also Germany's enemy before; for this enemy that has already been defeated, Bismarck still knows it very well.

If the Austro-Hungarian Empire only had the two regions of Austria and Bohemia, Bismarck would be willing to regard it as a medium-scale power.

But if you add Hungary, Galicia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and other regions, the comprehensive strength of such a complete Austro-Hungarian Empire is actually much weaker.

The largest state in the country, Hungary, was not very keen on the Austrian Empire, and added to the fact that there are many other ethnic groups in the country and the core German ethnic group does not have an advantage, it greatly weakened the strength of this powerful power.

Compared with Bismarck not looking favorably on this war, Wilhelm II, who had just become emperor, looked very favorably on this war.

Wilhelm II believed that at present, this war is still Germany, Austria, and Italy facing one enemy, Russia. Moreover, Spain has also expressed its support for the Austro-Hungarian Empire; if the four powers can unite to eliminate Russia first, the hellish ending Bismarck spoke of naturally cannot exist.

Even if the Franco-Russian Alliance is eventually established, it does not necessarily represent a hellish ending for Germany.

That's right, Germany is indeed attacked from both the east and west by France and Russia. But the problem is, if Spain can be won over to join the alliance, France will also be in a posture of being attacked from both sides.

Although Germany is attacked from both sides, the safety of the north and south can still be guaranteed. As long as one of France and Russia is prioritized for elimination, this war can still end very quickly.

If France can be defeated again, or Russia can be defeated, it is a good thing for Germany.

Defeating France can gain a large amount of indemnity, and even snatch France's colonies in Africa. Defeating Russia can snatch the Polish region occupied by Russia; the Polish plains are also land of extremely high value.

Because of the conflict in philosophy between the new emperor and the original person in power, Germany did not express its attitude at the first moment.

The old emperor of Vienna, Franz Joseph I, had deep eyes; after determining that there was no news from the German side, he placed his eyes on the situation map of the Balkan Peninsula for a long time and finally issued his order to the government: "Start the war!"

(End of this chapter)