Chapter 481: The Arrow on the String

As the various European powers gradually made their financial data from the previous year public, even an ordinary European citizen knew that a super war was imminent.

The reason was simple: no great power could sustain such enormous military expenditures for several years. When the powers could no longer hold on, the only way they could stop the arms race was through war.

In a report by the Spanish newspaper *El Sol* interviewing citizens in Spain's two largest cities, Madrid and Barcelona, it could be seen that out of over a thousand randomly interviewed citizens, more than 60% of Spaniards believed the super war would occur within 1912, over 30% believed it would occur in 1913, and only 10% thought it might be delayed until 1914.

It was not just the Spanish public; most of the European populace held this view, and even the governments of various European nations generally believed that the state of peace between France and Germany could last for at most two more years.

Within the German and French governments, discussions regarding war plans were also underway.

The war plans of various nations were not formulated after the outbreak of war; rather, very detailed and meticulous offensive plans had existed long before the fighting began.

Germany's offensive plan was formulated by the former Chief of the General Staff, Count Schlieffen, and was touted as being able to capture Paris in eight weeks.

The content of the plan was simple: Count Schlieffen boldly guessed that France would commit its main forces to the direction of Alsace and Lorraine. These two regions had been seized by Germany after the Franco-Prussian War, and the primary hatred between France and Germany was concentrated there.

Under the premise that France would primarily attack toward Alsace and Lorraine, Germany only needed to use two or three armies to defend in that direction, while concentrating the remaining majority of its forces on the right flank to pass through the Low Countries, thereby achieving the goal of rapidly capturing Paris.

In this way, the German army could not only bypass the main offensive direction of the French army but also turn the tables to threaten the French army's flank.

Once news of Paris being captured reached the interior of the French army, the French army would surely collapse instantly, just as it had during the Franco-Prussian War.

Because this offensive plan was formulated by Count Schlieffen, it was known as the Schlieffen Plan. Although Count Schlieffen had passed away, because his former assistant, Moltke the Younger, had taken over as Chief of the German General Staff, the Schlieffen Plan continued to be utilized by the German General Staff as Plan No. 1 for the invasion of France.

However, since the new Chief of the German General Staff had become Moltke the Younger, it was certainly impossible to keep the plan formulated by Schlieffen entirely unchanged; would that not make the new Chief of Staff, Moltke the Younger, appear incompetent?

Under the insistence of Moltke the Younger, the German General Staff modified some details of the offensive plan, reducing the right flank—which originally held 85% of the Western Front's forces—to 60%, and concentrating the reduced 25% of forces on the left flank.

Compared to the originally somewhat frantic Schlieffen Plan, the modified offensive plan appeared much more conservative. Count Schlieffen had concentrated the vast majority of Germany's forces on the Western Front, and the vast majority of the Western Front's forces on the right flank, leaving the Alsace-Lorraine region and the eastern front against Russia extremely empty.

After the modifications by Moltke the Younger, although the strength of the right flank on the Western Front was weakened, the strength of the left flank was increased, ensuring that the Western Front still assembled the majority of the German army.

If viewed from the perspective of later generations, such adjustments caused Germany to squander its initial advantage. But for Germany at that time, as Chief of the General Staff, Moltke the Younger making slight adjustments to the offensive plan was truly the most normal thing.

There was no disagreement within Germany regarding the adjustments to the offensive plan; they firmly believed that the powerful German Imperial Army would capture Paris in a short time, and that the war would end with extreme speed, just like the Franco-Prussian War of the past.

Within the German government, the conversation between Kaiser Wilhelm II and the current Chancellor of the German Empire, Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg, was also unrelated to the modifications of the offensive plan; the two were actually discussing the timing of the war's outbreak.

"Your Majesty, the French government is already accelerating the expansion of its army. If there are no accidents, the war is very likely to break out this year," the German Chancellor, Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg, said to Kaiser Wilhelm II with a serious expression.

The current situation for both Germany and France was a scenario where the arrow was on the string and had to be released.

If Germany did not intend to start the war, it would face the risk of being actively declared war upon by France. Rather than saying Germany and France wanted to ignite a war, it was more that both sides had reached the edge of a cliff and needed to fight to the death regardless, otherwise, both would perish.

"The General Staff has finished modifying the offensive plan. If we must fight a battle with the French, then I believe now is the time," Kaiser Wilhelm II said confidently, leaning his body slightly to hide his congenitally withered left arm while tapping the table lightly with his right hand.

His congenital physical defect made Wilhelm II sensitive and insecure, but having ascended to the throne at a young age, he inevitably became somewhat arrogant and overbearing.

This also made Wilhelm II an extremely contradictory person. On one hand, he expressed intentions to be on good terms with Britain by attending two British funerals (Queen Victoria and Edward VII), while on the other, he recklessly offended the British government and public through his own words.

Fortunately, the British Royal Family would not hold a grudge against him because of a few words from Wilhelm II; at this time, the relationship between the British Royal Family and the German Imperial Family was still relatively good.

On one hand, the current surname of the British Royal Family was still Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, which was a German surname with deep roots.

On the other hand, Wilhelm II's mother, Princess Victoria, was the eldest daughter of Queen Victoria, and there was a close marital relationship between the British Royal Family and the German Imperial Family.

It was precisely these factors that created the good Anglo-German relationship; if not for the historical Germany's frantic naval construction before World War I making Britain feel threatened, Britain might not have necessarily chosen to help France, a hereditary enemy full of hatred.

"Your Majesty, should we consider the attitudes of Britain and Spain? If Britain and Spain choose to intervene after the war breaks out, the situation is very likely to move in a more unfavorable direction for us," the German Chancellor, Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg, said with some worry while looking at the confident Kaiser Wilhelm II.

Regardless of how the strengths of the Allied Powers and the Entente Powers compared, as Chancellor of the German Empire, Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg knew that Germany would definitely be the country under the most pressure once the war broke out.

Although both Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire needed to fight on two fronts, Germany faced the two super powers of France and Russia. The Austro-Hungarian Empire only needed to face a portion of the main Russian army plus the small country of Serbia, and had the help of Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire, so the actual pressure was not great.

Especially on the Western Front, Germany needed to face the French army's offensive alone. Although France had declined by this time, the German Empire was the most powerful country.

But the problem was that a lean camel is still bigger than a horse; France was still recognized as the second-strongest land power in Europe, and Germany needed to pay 100% caution when facing France.

What made Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg even more worried was that outside the two major military groups, there were two other super powers eyeing the European situation.

As long as either Britain or Spain intervened in the European war, it could have an extremely unfavorable impact on Germany.

It was precisely because of this that before the war officially broke out, it was necessary to ensure that Britain and Spain remained neutral simultaneously, or to ensure that Germany could obtain the support of one of them, so as to remain invincible.

Hearing the inquiry from Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg, Kaiser Wilhelm II nodded, but without the slightest worry, he replied with a smile: "We should thank the Spanish government. If it weren't for them proposing the Neutral Nations Treaty, I fear we would not have full confidence in dealing with the possible intervention of Britain and Spain.

Now, with Britain and Spain having signed the Neutral Nations Treaty simultaneously, the possibility of them intervening in the European war has been reduced to the minimum.

Of course, we cannot let our guard down because of this. Spain might not be won over, but we can still strive for Britain.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs can contact the British government to ensure that Britain remains neutral if Spain does not intervene, and leans toward us if Spain does intervene.

If necessary, we can make concessions regarding the navy. As long as we ensure that our war will not have outside factors interfering, the German army will capture Paris in a short time, and we might be able to hold a military parade outside the Palace of Versailles to proclaim our strength to Europe."

There was still a lot of confidence within Germany regarding the war with France; the only thing they worried about was perhaps British intervention.

Historically, the German government had once tried to mediate its relationship with the British government, but the final results were minimal. However, they miscalculated Britain's choice; they originally thought Britain would remain neutral in the world war, but they did not expect Britain to stand directly on France's side.