Chapter 260: Section 17: Conjecture

On the twenty-second day of the first month of the sixth year of the Tianqi reign, on the official road from Liaoyang toward Shenyang.

The Later Jin army was attacked on its return journey by the Mongolian Bayan tribe, losing part of a small cart convoy and wasting considerable time. These Mongols had originally intended to withdraw before the Later Jin's main combat forces arrived, but because the Mongolian steppe had suffered drought year after year, most tribes could not feed themselves, and a small group was reluctant to leave. In the end, though they managed to loot their fill, their reduced speed allowed the Later Jin army to catch up.

Nurhaci did not slaughter the captives. On the contrary, the Later Jin not only treated them to a good meal, but also gave them a batch of grain before releasing them. Nurhaci wrote a courteous letter to the chieftain of the Bayan Mongols, in which he pointed out that both the Mongols and the Later Jin were poor people, and rather than rob each other, it would be better to join forces and plunder the Ming State.

After returning home, Nurhaci also sent a letter to Genghis Khan. This letter was equally courteous, and the gifts sent were also very generous. Furthermore, Nurhaci included a list of what he had gained this time in Liaoxi. The implication of this gesture was very clear, showing that Nurhaci hoped to ally with Genghis Khan — wouldn't raiding the Great Ming benefit both sides?

This morning Nurhaci's envoy mission returned... to be precise, one person from Nurhaci's envoy mission returned. Only a single groom was sent back by Genghis Khan, bearing a letter. In the letter, Genghis Khan cursed Nurhaci so viciously it was as if he had been drenched in dog's blood.

Genghis Khan accepted Nurhaci's gifts, then slaughtered the entire envoy mission. It is said that Genghis Khan plans to claim these heads as his battlefield trophies and send them to the Great Ming in exchange for silver.

The Bayan Mongols have also delayed endlessly in replying to Nurhaci. News has also come from the Liaohe river bend that the day before yesterday, another small band of Mongols secretly crossed the Liao River, killed over a dozen bondservants, and then ran back — reportedly, they were also from the Bayan Mongols.

Although Nurhaci raged furiously, there was nothing he could do. After returning to central Liaoning to rest for many days, it seemed the Dongjiang army at Gaizhou had also shifted to a defensive posture. Since the situation at Haizhou had stabilized, Nurhaci decided to go inspect Shenyang and, while there, receive the envoys from the Khorchin Mongols.

Daišan, Manggūltai, and Hong Taiji were all in the retinue. The three brothers knew that Nurhaci had been in a foul mood these past days, so they all kept their distance at the rear to avoid inviting trouble upon themselves. However, the other two younger brothers who had come along today seemed to have no such concerns. Manggūltai narrowed his eyes and watched the figures of Dorgon and Dodo up ahead; those two fellows seemed to have coaxed the old man into quite a good humor, and the three, father and sons, had been laughing and joking together at the front the whole time.

Daišan lagged one horse-length behind Manggūltai and was chatting with Hong Taiji: "Those Mongols are even poorer than we are, so why don't they dare to raid the Ming State? Are they content to starve to death?"

"Those cowardly rats have the heart but not the guts. Ah, over the past few hundred years, the Ming State has utterly broken their courage." Hong Taiji shook his head helplessly, then sighed repeatedly with a bitter smile: "This is the accumulated awe of Ming's might. We are now riding a tiger and find it hard to dismount, but no one else wants to accompany us... Look, Great Beile, the Khorchin Mongols have intermarried with us, and our alliance is rock-solid. If we were to attack Lin Danhan, there would be absolutely no problem, but if we ask them to openly join forces with us under clear banners to attack the Ming State, they make every excuse to refuse."

"I have also heard something of this," Daišan, though primarily responsible for Liaonan, was equally concerned with such grand strategy. Over the years, although the Later Jin army had won battle after battle, apart from some destitute Mongols who simply could not survive, no one was willing to throw in their lot with the Later Jin: "I've also heard that some headmen of the Khorchin Mongols have privately discussed that whether it takes ten years, twenty years, or fifty years, the Ming State will certainly defeat us."

"Indeed. Right now, the only reason the Khorchin Mongols need to trade salt and grain with us is that they don't share a border with the Great Ming. If we falter, they will surely stab us in the back. What a pity that back then, that Yang Hao almost agreed to negotiate peace with us." Hong Taiji's words drew a wave of emotion from Daišan.

Back then, after Nurhaci had taken military action against the Great Ming's government troops, he had taken the initiative to request peace negotiations from the Liaodong Regional Military Commission.

Because Nurhaci offered terms of paying tribute and declaring himself a vassal, Yang Hao at the time almost agreed to Nurhaci's demands. Yang Hao believed that since Nurhaci had not occupied much border territory, mobilizing a large army for suppression would be too costly. But after this peace request was reported to Beijing, it was immediately rejected by the Wanli Emperor, who ordered the mobilization of the Liaodong garrison to launch a sweeping campaign — this became the Battle of Sarhū.

After the Sarhū campaign, Nurhaci again sued for peace, saying he wanted nothing at all, only asking the Great Ming to grant him a formal title. The succeeding Grand Coordinator of Liaodong, Xiong Tingbi, scoffed at this, declaring that once such a precedent was set, there would never be peace on the frontier. Xiong Tingbi not only refused to consider peace talks, but also notified all Mongol tribes that whoever dared trade with the Later Jin would be considered an enemy of the Great Ming.

Subsequently, Nurhaci twice led the main force of the Eight Banners to attack Liaodong, but both times he was defeated in the field by Xiong Tingbi, who leveraged the advantage of fighting on home ground. The Later Jin failed to plunder anything. Three years later, Xiong Tingbi recovered over a dozen forts and towns; apart from the city of Fushun, the Later Jin had been driven out of the Liaodong border wall. It was also at this time that Mao Wenlong rose to prominence — after a year of fierce fighting, he recovered places like Gushanbao and was promoted on merit to Mobile Corps Commander.

What was fortunate for the Later Jin... was that the Wanli Emperor died just in time.

After Wang Huazhen took office, Nurhaci again wanted to negotiate peace with him. Recalling this, Hong Taiji sighed once more: "At that time we occupied the whole of Liaodong. The Khan endured curse after curse from him, always replying with kind words and using the withdrawal from the border wall as bait to lure him into talks. But although Wang Huazhen was arrogant and incompetent, he simply refused to take the bait. Apart from rude abuse, all he offered was venomous curses."

Daišan, recalling the experiences of those years, forced a smile and said: "Recently, hasn't Father Khan started peace talks again with Yuan Chonghuan at Ningyuan? I hear the progress is quite good."

"The effect is indeed quite good. That Yuan Chonghuan thinks extremely highly of himself. Father Khan originally addressed the letter with the three characters 'My Lord Yuan,' but the envoy reported that Yuan Chonghuan showed an expression of displeased annoyance. So in the second letter, Father Khan changed it to 'My Venerable Lord Yuan,' and that Yuan Chonghuan was smugly pleased, showing the letter around everywhere to flaunt it, believing he possessed the eloquence to out-argue a host of scholars and that his august prestige could overawe foreign vassals."

As Hong Taiji spoke, he couldn't help but laugh, and in a tone of sarcasm and mockery, he continued: "What followed was even more amusing. Father Khan perceived his arrogance and conceit, so he catered to his tastes, saying only that we had no choice but to go to war with the Great Ming because we couldn't get enough to eat. If they gave us some silver each year for food, we would willingly withdraw beyond the border wall and become law-abiding border subjects. That Yuan Chonghuan seemed to deeply agree, and with a straight face began discussing with Father Khan exactly how much silver would be enough to feed our entire people."

"Isn't that quite good?" Daišan also laughed as he listened. A smug look appeared on his face, and he straightened up with invigorated spirits: "If such a precedent were set, wouldn't all the Mongol tribes then scramble to attack the Ming State, seeking annual payments from the Great Ming... ha, annual bestowals?"

Hong Taiji was not as optimistic as Daišan. Worriedly, he said: "How is that possible? After Wang Huazhen refused peace talks, I thought it through. Father Khan keeps thinking of the example of Altan Khan. That Altan Khan stirred up trouble on the Ming border for so many years, and by lowering his stance just a little, didn't the Ming court also grant him a princely title and open border markets? So Father Khan always hopes to trick the Ming State into starting peace talks, so he can draw the Mongols into an alliance with us. But we are different from Altan Khan. We occupy Ming border territory. If the Ming State negotiated peace and granted annual bestowals before we withdrew from their territory, wouldn't that be showing weakness to the whole world and encouraging everyone around them to attack the Ming State? So even if Yuan Chonghuan is willing, could it be that there isn't a single clear-sighted person in the entire Ming imperial court? Look, over all these years, we've only encountered one Yuan Chonghuan, that's all."

Daišan mulled it over and then agreed with Hong Taiji's reasoning. He looked disappointedly at Nurhaci up ahead, who was still happily chatting and laughing with his two young sons: "Then why don't you go and tell Father Khan? Why lose face in front of Yuan Chonghuan for nothing?"

"Father Khan is getting on in years and has become stubborn, not very willing to listen to advice. Ah, since Father Khan wants to amuse himself by toying with Yuan Chonghuan, let him play. But I still say the same thing: it's impossible for the Ming court to be entirely without a single clear-sighted person. This intimidating prestige was bought at the cost of several of their emperors taking to the battlefield, one emperor dying of illness on campaign, and one emperor being captured. So Father Khan's correspondence with Yuan Chonghuan is useless; it will still be rejected by the Ming court, unless Yuan Chonghuan dares to bypass his own court and privately negotiate peace with us. But... could there possibly be such an arrogantly conceited man in this world?"

After Nurhaci arrived in Shenyang, Amin and Jirgalang accompanied him on an inspection of the outskirts of Shenyang. Grass roots and field mice beneath the ground, birds' nests and tree bark on the trees... there was nothing left at all.

"Mao Wenlong came by this road," Jirgalang pointed in the direction of Xianning Fort, then pointed toward Fushun: "And Mao Wenlong left by this road."

"There is nothing left along either of these roads. Nothing at all." The muscles on Amin's face twitched incessantly. These past days, his heart had ached so much he nearly coughed blood several times. There were also rumors that after inspecting the route the Dongjiang army had taken when leaving, the Second Beile had secretly shed tears where no one was watching: "Anything with four legs, except for tables, has been completely eaten by Mao Wenlong. Anything that could be carried away, except for stones, has been taken by Mao Wenlong."

Unlike the agitated Amin, Nurhaci showed no particularly strong reaction. He gave instructions that the spoils brought back from Liaoxi this time were plentiful, and a portion could certainly be allocated to Amin's Bordered Blue Banner. After all, the gains from this campaign still far outweighed the losses. The thousand li of barren land before his eyes was hardly inferior to the Liaoxi that Nurhaci had visited; this technique of foraging and plundering had undoubtedly reached the pinnacle of perfection. Nurhaci sighed with self-mockery: "Wenlong and I, indeed, are fellow disciples taught by the same master."

Nurhaci could not help but recall his dealings with Mao Wenlong many years ago. Back then, both Nurhaci and Mao Wenlong had served as household slaves under Li Chengliang. At that time, the two of them had even drunk together, but it had been so long that Nurhaci could no longer recall Mao Wenlong's appearance at all. He said flatly: "While Wenlong exists, I cannot labor my armies on distant campaigns, for I fear the women and children at home will know no peace."

At the same time, on Changsheng Island.

Jin Qiude was strolling with the garrison commander Zhao Manxiong on a deserted part of the beach. Jin Qiude had found an opportunity to call Zhao Manxiong out and told him the full story of the conflict between Huang Shi and Yuan Chonghuan. Then, somewhat anxiously, he said: "My lord won't listen to advice and is determined to impeach Yuan Chonghuan no matter what. I couldn't stop him. What should we do now?"

"Don't panic, don't panic. Let me think... think slowly."

After walking over a dozen li with his hands behind his back, Zhao Manxiong stopped, raised his right fist to his mouth, and coughed. Jin Qiude's spirits lifted, and he focused his full attention, waiting to hear Zhao Manxiong's reasoning...

"It's getting late today, let's stop our walk here. Allow me to go back tonight and think it over carefully... think slowly."

The next day, Jin Qiude brought up the old topic again. Zhao Manxiong said slowly: "What kind of person do you think Yuan Chonghuan is?"

"Fond of boasting, thinks extremely highly of himself, acts recklessly."

"Is he stupid?"

"Hard to say. Judging from his advocacy of peace talks, he seems very stupid. But before he said that, he repeatedly probed our lord, and only spoke up after he thought our lord could be easily manipulated. In the end, he even tried to make our lord take the risk and bear the blame. No matter how you look at it, he doesn't seem like a very stupid person."

After hearing this, Zhao Manxiong let out a long sigh: "Brother Jin, you come from quite a good background, don't you? You probably haven't endured too much hardship."

Without waiting for Jin Qiude to answer, Zhao Manxiong continued: "Yuan Chonghuan became a Metropolitan Graduate in the forty-seventh year of the Wanli reign. By then he was already quite old, his examination master was obscure and unknown, and he would soon be sent out to serve as a local official. Without any special circumstances, a man like that would remain a petty sesame-seed official his whole life, right?"

"True. Hmm, I'm beginning to see what you mean," Jin Qiude gave a cold laugh: "Brother Zhao is saying that Yuan Chonghuan has actually been gambling all along, always taking extreme paths in everything, deliberately making grandiose statements to draw attention to himself."

"Yes, I've seen many people like this. I heard he once went to the Ministry of War and said something... it was something like: 'Give me several hundred thousand troops, enough weapons, money, and grain, and I alone can exterminate the Jianzhou slaves.' Is that right?"

"It seems it was: 'Give me several hundred thousand troops, enough weapons, money, and grain, and I alone can hold Shanhai Pass.' But it's roughly the same as what you said. Go on."

"This morning I went to check the internal security files on Yuan Chonghuan. Our lord has actually collected quite a lot. Hmm, what left a deep impression on me: previously, when Governor Yan ordered him to check troop numbers, he treated a chicken feather as a warrant and executed people; and this time, Grand Coordinator Gao advocates withdrawing and abandoning the defense of the lands beyond the pass, while Vice Minister Yan advocates holding firm beyond the pass. In Liaodong affairs, the Grand Coordinator's word has always been final, but Yuan Chonghuan supported the Ministry of War's opinion. These are all examples of taking extreme paths, aren't they?"

Jin Qiude thought for a moment, then silently nodded: "Deliberately making grandiose statements, taking extreme paths, trying every means to attract others' attention. Gambling with matters of national importance for the sake of his own career. If the gamble pays off, he gets promoted extremely fast. If the gamble fails..."

"If he loses, the state pays his wager for him. As long as he's bold enough and keeps his life, next time he can gamble even bigger, aiming to win it all back in one throw." As he spoke, Zhao Manxiong smiled slightly and asked Jin Qiude: "You see, no one in the court dares to advocate peace talks. But if peace talks could succeed, and the Jianzhou slaves truly withdrew from Liaodong, then what kind of monumental achievement would Yuan Chonghuan have accomplished? What the state failed to do despite expending countless silver and lives, he would achieve with a mere gesture. I imagine that would be enough to earn a prominent place in the history books, wouldn't it?"

Jin Qiude argued: "But the Jianzhou slaves cannot possibly agree to peace talks. Peace talks would bring a hundred harms and not a single benefit to the state."

"Well said. If he is fooled by the Jianzhou slaves, then not only will the state be humiliated, but the Great Ming's authority will be swept to the ground. That's why no one dares to do it. If it weren't for such great danger, the Illustrious Emperor, Grand Coordinator Yang, Grand Coordinator Xiong, Provincial Governor Wang, and Grand Coordinator Sun would have done it long ago — how could it have waited until today, and how could it have fallen to him, Yuan Chonghuan? But there is also another possibility. How do you know the Jianzhou slaves don't fear the Great Ming's accumulated might, that they aren't so worried about their future they can't drink tea or think of food? How do you know the Jianzhou slaves don't want to take the riches they've plundered over the years and live a peaceful life? How do you know the Jianzhou slaves don't want to escape this predicament of riding a tiger?"

Jin Qiude was stunned for a moment, then murmured: "That possibility exists, but it's far too small. The risk is too great."

"If he loses, the state suffers the loss, and at worst Yuan Chonghuan loses his post. If he wins, his name is etched in history, and he becomes a general and a minister. If it were you, would you take the gamble?"

Jin Qiude stood still. Zhao Manxiong also stopped and watched him with keen interest. After a long while, Jin Qiude finally said: "What you mean is: defying orders to hold firm at Ningyuan and Juehua — if he loses, a hundred thousand soldiers and civilians are reduced to ashes, and Yuan Chonghuan also perishes; if he wins, he's promoted six ranks in a row. If he doesn't gamble, who would ever know a mere Ningqian Circuit Intendant? If he dares to gamble with his life, would he not dare to gamble with dismissal from office?"

"I didn't say that. That's your reasoning, measuring the heart of a gentleman with your own petty mind. The strong city of Ningyuan is one thing, but I merely suspect that if our lord hadn't gone to Juehua, there probably wouldn't be a living soul left there by now." Zhao Manxiong shrugged his shoulders and sidestepped the question.

"This isn't stupidity, it's treachery!"

"Gambling with the nation's fate for one's own career prospects is, of course, treachery. If Yuan Chonghuan truly thinks this way, then our lord's accusation that he is selling out the country is not wrong at all. This is just like Qin Gui of the Song Dynasty — those opera scripts all say he was a spy sent by the Jin State. And those stories about the Yang Family Generals also speak of Commissioner Wang — what was his name again?"

"Wang Qinruo?" Jin Qiude had read more books than Zhao Manxiong, and among them happened to be the history of the Song Dynasty.

"That's roughly the name. They say he was also sent by Empress Dowager Xiao. But I think, really, how could there be so many sent agents? The way I see it, they're just one after another trading the blood of officers and soldiers, and the nation's future, for their own career prospects. As for selling out the country — heh heh — does one have to be a sent agent to sell out the country? I truly don't believe that Qin Gui, with a perfectly good Grand Chancellor post in the great Song dynasty, was wholeheartedly devoted to the Tartars."

"Then isn't my lord in danger? Right now, my lord is standing in the way of his peace talks."

"If it's mere stupidity, then my lord will be fine. But if Yuan Chonghuan is a treacherous sycophant, then whatever Qin Gui did to Prince Yue, he will do to any war-hawk military officer." Watching the tense expression that appeared on Jin Qiude's face, a trace of mockery flickered through Zhao Manxiong's eyes. "However... isn't this an opportunity for you?"