Chapter 209: An Appraisal from the Progenitor Dragon

Heifu spoke with confidence: "After the last campaign against Chu, we all understood that Chu cannot be compared to Wei or Yan. Chu's territory stretches five thousand li, it wields several hundred thousand halberds, and it bears four generations of enmity with Qin."

"Now that the Jing state faces the peril of annihilation, its nobles are rearing orphans and nurturing the young to swell their numbers, the common folk are straining at plowing and sowing to increase their stores, the soldiers are mending armor and sharpening blades to heighten their edge, and the craftsmen are raising walls and dredging moats to strengthen their defenses. King Fuchu of Chu humbles himself before his ministers, and General Xiang Yan courteously seeks out men who will die for him — it can be said that ruler and minister are of one heart, high and low exerting themselves together, just as when Goujian was trapped on Mount Kuaiji…"

"Therefore I surmise that if His Majesty intends to make the veteran general Wang Jian commander for the campaign against Chu, then unless he refrains from sending troops, once he does he will surely empty Qin of its armored soldiers and commit everything with full force. Otherwise, he absolutely cannot easily defeat Chu's army of grief and fury!"

Li You was still puzzled. "That may be so, but how could you know that the troop count the old general proposed to His Majesty was six hundred thousand?"

Even within the court hall at Xianyang, no more than twenty people knew that specific figure.

Apart from the King of Qin, Wang Jian, Li Xin, Wei Liao, Xia Wuju, and the others who were present, only Li Si, Feng Wuze, and a few other key ministers involved in planning the destruction of Chu were aware of it.

As the sole bright spot in the first Chu campaign, Li You had caught the King of Qin's eye and was chosen to take part in the military deliberations, which was how he knew. Feng Jing, though the son of Feng Wuze, had not reached the requisite standing and therefore was also in the dark.

So when the two of them suddenly heard Heifu state the number six hundred thousand, both were utterly astonished. Feng Jing even began to suspect he was a fake son of a high official.

Heifu lowered his head. "This junior clerk deduced it."

"Deduced?"

Feng Jing was somewhat skeptical. "The Left Clerk of the Troops Section is stationed in Nan Commandery, far from the halls of power — and yet you could deduce it so accurately out of thin air?"

Heifu nodded and smiled. "I could."

The sky had gradually darkened. The oil lamps in the commandery lieutenant's hall had been lit, and all the servants had been shooed outside. Before Li You and Feng Jing, Heifu began his "deduction" in all seriousness.

"The art of war says: 'Whenever an army of one hundred thousand is raised and sent on a campaign a thousand li away, the expenses of the common people, the outlays of the state, amount to a thousand pieces of gold a day. Within and without there is turmoil; men collapse from exhaustion on the roads, and seven hundred thousand households are unable to attend to their work.'"

"In the time of Wu's Master Sun, eight households formed a neighborhood; one household supplied one man for the army, and seven households had to support him. Hence it is said that when an army of one hundred thousand is mobilized, seven hundred thousand households cease tilling and sowing."

In the Spring and Autumn period, productivity was lower, but the daily consumption of fodder and rations for men and horses did not decrease because of it, so the conscription ratio was also very low. Reckoning five to eight people per household, eight households would be anywhere from forty to sixty-four people; the state of Wu's conscription rate was a mere 1.5% to 2.5%.

"Today Qin applies the laws of Lord Shang, encouraging agriculture; the yield per mu is much greater than in ancient times, so roughly five households can support one soldier sent a thousand li away. Several months ago I heard the commandery lieutenant remark with a sigh that Qin has three million households… So a rough calculation tells me that if Qin empties itself of armored soldiers, it can field no more than six hundred thousand men!"

Qin already occupied more than half of all under heaven, with over three million households. Each household was a family of five to eight people, giving a population of fifteen to twenty million. If it fielded six hundred thousand men, the conscription rate would be 3% to 4%.

Does that seem low? The fact is, for two thousand years, no dynasty in any era has had a conscription rate much higher than that figure. In his previous life, Heifu had read an article saying that Germany during World War II, at the peak of its military strength, had a conscription rate between 11.5% and 14.7%. Germany's total population at the time was around eighty million; including the armies of its satellite states, it barely exceeded ten million. Even with modern technology — fertilizers and factories — the army a society could sustain was no greater than that, let alone in the Qin era.

Six hundred thousand — that was the absolute limit of Qin's conscription. Any more would severely impact rear-area production; the common people would be unable to carry on, and the soldiers at the front would grow gaunt and famished. Back when Zhao fought the Battle of Changping, its conscription once reached the 10% mark. The result was that Zhao's economy collapsed; the grain of the entire state could not feed the soldiers at the front, and no neighboring state would lend it provisions. It had no choice but to seek a quick battle — a lesson written in blood.

"Therefore, Chu cannot be attacked without six hundred thousand men!"

The deduction finished, a patter of clapping sounded within the room. It was Li You, full of admiration. "Well done, Heifu! This temple calculation of yours differs hardly at all from the old general Wang's original intent!"

Feng Jing, too, shed his earlier dismissiveness and marveled at Heifu's deductive ability. No longer daring to look down on this ordinary-looking, dark-faced army man, he rose from his mat and bowed.

"I have been studying the art of war, but I have never fully understood the 'temple calculation' and 'knowing the other and knowing oneself' that the texts speak of. Only today, hearing the Left Clerk's deduction, do I understand what 'temple calculation' means, and what 'knowing oneself' means! It seems that having experienced real battle truly sets one apart from those who have not. This young man still has much to learn!"

Heifu hurriedly returned the courtesy with humble words, while inwardly muttering to himself, "Knowing the result and then working backward to reconstruct the process — it all comes down to how well this mouth of mine can spin a tale. Of course there's no mistake…"

Now that Heifu had laid it bare, Li You no longer needed to keep it secret. He proceeded to tell Heifu and Feng Jing the full story of what had happened in Xianyang the previous month.

"You two do not know, but as early as last year, when His Majesty sought counsel from General Wang Jian and General Li Xin, General Wang Jian insisted that Chu could not be attacked without six hundred thousand men, while General Li Xin said that two hundred thousand would suffice. General Li Xin was therefore appointed commander and attacked Chu with two hundred thousand men, while General Wang Jian retired to Pinyang on grounds of old age."

"Then two months ago, Generals Li Xin and Meng Tian suffered a great defeat at the hands of Xiang Yan. The Chu army entered the two ramparts and killed seven of our commandants. Our army fled in defeat and withdrew to Shangcai and Yangcheng. Because the first snow had fallen, the two states suspended hostilities, but no peace was concluded. A hundred thousand troops remain at the front, and the Chu people are stirring restlessly, ready to resume their westward advance at any moment. The war between Qin and Chu is not yet over!"

Li You still felt a lingering fear. Had Heifu not been so reliable, he himself would likely have been the eighth commandant to die in battle.

"General Li Xin indeed brought disgrace to the army and shame to the state. When His Majesty heard the battle report, he flew into a great rage. He stripped the two generals, Li and Meng, of their ranks and banished them in disgrace. Then he went in person to Pinyang, apologized to the old general Wang, and begged him to take command…"

As for the detailed conversation — how the King of Qin persuaded Wang Jian — even Li You did not know. He only knew that in the end, Wang Jian finally agreed to take command and lead the army, but his condition remained unchanged: "It cannot be done without six hundred thousand men!"

Hearing this, Heifu sighed inwardly. Wang Jian could not possibly refuse to come out of retirement, because he would not have forgotten what had befallen Lord Wu'an, Bai Qi, over thirty years ago…

Although the upper echelons of Qin had completed the "initial assessment" stage of the war, six hundred thousand men could not be assembled all at once, and the grain to feed them had to be slowly stockpiled in granaries.

Qin's high command therefore decided not to rush the deployment this time, but to wait until the autumn harvest had filled the granaries before attacking Chu. The King of Qin first dispatched Li You and others to the various commanderies; once the busy spring plowing season was over, they were to immediately begin this year's conscription drive, train the men for five or six months, and then send them to the front!

After hearing Li You lay out Qin's strategy, a great weight lifted from Heifu's heart. As expected of Wang Jian — even before the war began, everything exuded the word "steady."

Indeed, Qin now held absolute superiority in national power, population, troop strength, and institutions. Rushing in recklessly would only give the opponent, holding the high ground, a chance to counterattack and wipe them out. By staying steady, not playing recklessly, and slowly pushing forward to take the towers, even if the Chu general Xiang Yan were a heaven-sent genius, he would be unable to reverse the situation.

That was why Li You had rushed to Nan Commandery as soon as his wounds healed — to prepare early and carry out the conscription. After the last war, he was full of confidence in the soldiers of Nan Commandery.

"Just as Heifu deduced a moment ago, five households support one soldier. Nan Commandery has one hundred fifty thousand households; during the slack farming season, it can conscript at least thirty thousand soldiers for the front!"

Reckoned this way, each of Nan Commandery's eighteen counties would have to send at least a thousand troops, while populous counties like Jiangling and Yan would have to send three to five thousand. It would truly be a mass mobilization. Simply assembling the men would be difficult enough, to say nothing of training and other matters — no easy task at all.

Li You smiled. "Conscription will not begin until after the spring plowing. You two have just arrived; go first to the lodgings that have been arranged for you and rest."

Heifu and Feng Jing rose and acknowledged the order, but Li You called Heifu back, saying he still had one matter to ask him about.

Feng Jing therefore bowed to Li You and took his leave, nodding to Heifu as well before descending from the hall.

As he reached the doorway, looking at his own silk shoes inlaid with pearls and fine jade, and then at Heifu's drab, dusty cloth shoes, Feng Jing could not help but sigh with emotion. "Earlier I thought it was really unnecessary for Li You to personally recommend a borderland nobody. Only today do I realize that this man is indeed no ordinary fellow! No wonder Li You trusts him so deeply!"

"Father and uncle were right after all: when you go out to the commanderies and counties, you must not look down on the men of the ranks and the provinces!"

…

Inside the hall, Heifu asked with concern, "I did not have a chance to ask earlier — is the commandery lieutenant's injury not serious?"

"On the road to Nan Commandery, the wound still ached from time to time, but it is no longer a major hindrance." Li You smiled. "His Majesty ordered the Prefect of the Grand Physicians, Sir Xia, to treat my wound. Sir Xia's medical skill is brilliant; as expected, the medicine cured the ailment."

The moment he heard the name Xia Wuju, Heifu had a rough idea of what Li You was about to say to him.

Sure enough, Li You pointed a finger at Heifu and said with a laugh of mock reproach, "You, Heifu — when you bandaged my wound in Chu, you merely said you had some acquaintance with the physician Chen Wujiu and that you had asked him to submit a proposal to the Prefect of the Grand Physicians, Sir Xia! I did not take it seriously at the time. But do you know, on the very day I entered the palace for my first audience with His Majesty after my wound healed, the moment I mentioned your merit in helping me break through the encirclement, Xia Wuju immediately prostrated himself on the floor, declared that he was guilty, and then presented a silk document to His Majesty in person!"

Heifu cursed inwardly. "It's been almost a year and there was no word at all — I thought the matter had fallen through! So old man Xia was just waiting for the perfect moment! What a shrewd old fox!"

Li You continued, "Indeed. On that silk document was exactly your proposal for establishing medical and emergency aid personnel so that soldiers could fight with peace of mind. After I heard it, I was utterly astonished, and even His Majesty praised it repeatedly! Do you know how His Majesty appraised you?"

"What did His Majesty say?" Heifu could not help but sit up straight from his kneeling posture. He felt a small flutter of anticipation — this was an appraisal from the Progenitor Dragon himself.

Li You's face filled with reverence as he cupped his hands toward the north from afar. "His Majesty said: 'Amid the thorny oak, can there also be timber fit for a zither?'"

PS: Next chapter after 10 p. m.

(End of chapter)