Chapter 134: Overestimated

On the twenty-fourth day of the twelfth month of the second year of Chongzhen, it was the Chongzhen Emperor's birthday once again.

Snowflakes drifted over Yan'an Prefecture, draping a layer of silver-white over the range upon range of earthen-yellow mountains in northern Shaanxi.

An old mounted highwayman of northern Shaanxi trod through the snow into Apricot Creek.

When Gao Yingxiang arrived, Liu Chengzong was bare-chested on the frozen Apricot Creek, swinging an iron pick; the cold had flushed his skin a faint red, and wisps of steam rose faintly from the sweat on his head.

Soon, Chengyun handed him a hand-drawn silk towel; after wiping the sweat from his body, he hurriedly threw on his clothes, then forcefully exhaled a white breath and asked, "Master Gao?"

"What are you doing out here — never mind, forget it, hurry, hurry and take me inside to warm up."

Liu Chengzong had been doing his morning exercise; after his run, he had chiseled a hole in the river ice, then wiped off his sweat and put on his clothes, so his whole body was warm.

Gao Yingxiang was different — he had ridden all the way from Yanchang County and was so frozen that icicles hung from his eyebrows and beard; he rode his horse straight into the courtyard.

Seeing him in this state, Liu Chengzong did not take him up the mountain but went directly into Lin Wei's house at the mountain's foot.

Together with the five personal attendants, six grown men crowded into the room and made straight for the heated brick bed to huddle up, every one of them shivering from the cold.

Liu Chengzong deliberately stood outside for a while; only after the sweat on his body had completely dried did he walk into the room warmed by the heated brick bed and ask, "What brings Master Gao here?"

"How could I not come? You sent your top general Cao Yao to lead troops east past Yanchang — at a time like this, you still dare to split your forces!"

As Gao Yingxiang spoke, he took out seven or eight sheets of paper folded together from an attendant and held them out, saying, "Take a look!"

Taking the letters, Liu Chengzong skimmed the top one; it was roughly the same as the letter sent from Zuantianmao a few days earlier.

Only the demand was the opposite — this letter Gao Yingxiang handed over said that if someone was sent to offer amnesty, they were to agree to amnesty; if someone was sent to campaign against them, they were to agree to surrender.

Likewise, the official post promised at the end was a bit lower — it was Squad Commander.

Liu Chengzong laughed at the sight of it. "This Yang He and his little tricks — it's fake. I've got this letter here too."

Gao Yingxiang said crossly, "Keep looking further."

The smile on Liu Chengzong's face froze. He went on to read the next letter, flipping through several in succession; his expression remained untroubled until he reached the last two letters. Only then did he grit his teeth and curse under his breath, "Damn it."

The letters Gao Yingxiang brought were all different. The first few were roughly the same — all had no named recipient and contained various arrangements for the next move, whether it was encirclement and suppression or amnesty and persuasion to surrender.

Some said if amnesty was offered, agree to amnesty; some said do not agree to amnesty; some said likewise surrender; some said the leader must not surrender; there were even ones urging the leader to flee, or urging the leader to fight to the death.

Basically, whatever choice a subordinate might make when faced with amnesty or encirclement — these letters covered all of them.

Liu Chengzong reckoned this was a stratagem to sow discord, bullying the various rebel leaders for their loose organization, stirring up suspicion between superiors and subordinates so that everyone felt endangered, which would in turn throw them into disarray and weaken each faction's fighting strength.

These letters were meant to be discovered. When a leader learned of such a letter's existence and asked his subordinates what to do about the court's amnesty offer, the one who said agree to amnesty might be a court spy, and the one who said do not agree to amnesty might also be a court spy.

That leader would then be unable to lead.

When a subordinate learned of this letter's existence, no matter what the leader asked, he would not dare answer or offer counsel — whatever he said would be suspected of being a court spy.

That subordinate would then be unable to serve.

The reason Liu Chengzong was certain this was a stratagem to sow discord was that this thing was more potent as a fake than as the real thing.

If it were real, it would actually be useless.

What people feared was the spy itself, not the advice given about surrendering, fighting, or fleeing.

On this point, Liu Chengzong was rather proud, because against the Lion Camp, this was ineffective.

If one were thinking along the lines of Water Margin, where every mountain bandit chief always had a dog-headed strategist at his side, this move would work.

But the entire Lion Camp simply had no intellectual-type figures, nor did the troop practice bandit-style democracy. The one exception was Cao Yao, who could use his rich bandit experience to spot gaps and fill deficiencies.

And from what Liu Chengzong knew of Cao Yao, Cao Yao wished he could stay as far from the authorities as possible and hide — this had nothing to do with whether Cao Yao was loyal to him or not.

Liu Chengzong was not the least bit afraid of Cao Yao surrendering.

If others surrendered, they might turn around and come back under orders to fight the peasant army.

If Cao Yao surrendered, he would avoid working for the authorities if he could help it. He might be sleeping in the main camp today, and tomorrow, after swindling some army rations and pay, he would take his trusted men and head into the mountains.

Apart from Cao Yao, the roles of hidden mastermind and vanguard blade for the entire troop had, over the past half year, been shouldered by Liu Chengzong alone.

And through this process, he had been forged stronger and stronger.

If the letter was fake, as long as he did not believe it, there was no problem.

If the letter was real, it was also utterly useless — as long as he kept the soldiers under tight control and gave them no chance to tip off the authorities.

But the last two letters Gao Yingxiang brought out were different.

Those were two letters urging surrender — specifically urging someone to surrender as an inside collaborator, saying that if one surrendered holding this letter, one would be pardoned and granted an official post commensurate with the troops turned.

Seeing the grave look on his face, Gao Yingxiang knew he had reached those two letters and said, "I stopped Cao Yao for you. If you still intend to let him go, send someone to tell him. But if you ask me, at a time when the authorities are inciting defection, it's best to keep all your troops and horses under close watch."

Liu Chengzong pulled over a bench and sat down. He did not answer Gao Yingxiang right away but propped his chin on his hand and thought for a moment before turning his head and asking, "Master Gao, how did you come by these letters?"

"It wasn't from my side. Hun Tianwang is back in Yanchuan, Hun Tianhou is in Luochuan — this winter their men are all dispersed among the commoners' homes. By the time someone handed the letters to them, the letters were already everywhere."

Hearing this, Liu Chengzong's face relaxed again. He smiled and said, "Master Gao, overestimated."

"Overestimated? Overestimated what?"

He flicked the sheets of letter paper with two fingers. "Overestimated the impact of these letters. And the authorities overestimated us… Among your men, are there that many who can read? You can understand them — can they?"

Liu Chengzong reckoned these letters would have not the slightest effect.

The sowing of discord was well done, deeply revolting.

But this thing was a stratagem devised by a scholar out of touch with the social environment.

If you went asking in a town or village, maybe forty out of a hundred people could read, but those who could keep accounts, write letters, and read books — fewer than five.

The drifting bandits formed from famine victims and refugees had an even lower level of literacy.

Given the drifting bandits' current level of literacy, if a letter was handed over, out of five leaders, three would not be able to read it.

Let alone the rank and file.

When Hun Tianhou's and Hun Tianwang's men got hold of these letters, it was nothing more than picking up a piece of paper to wedge under a table leg; even if they used it to wipe their backsides in the latrine, they would still worry about the ink staining their rear.

Gao Yingxiang was also stumped by the question. He turned it over in his mind and thought it really did seem to be the case.

"Tch, I'm not saying this to be harsh, but it's the same in my outfit — out of ten thousand men, you couldn't pick fifty who could read this letter all the way through."

Liu Chengzong swept his hand across the table edge, pointing at the letters. "The few who can read — how many sheets of this scrap paper could possibly fall into their hands? Master Gao, set your heart at ease. Just have someone keep a close eye on the literate ones in the camp, and all will be well."

Liu Chengzong said all this mainly to steady Gao Yingxiang's heart, and also to have Gao Yingxiang go steady the other leaders.

Because he knew very well that for the forces of men like Hun Tian Hou and Hun Tian Wang, this matter had no solution.

Whether true or false, they could produce no countermeasure whatsoever, nor did they have any ability to deal with this matter.

If the leaders' hearts stayed steady, they could resign themselves to fate; if the leaders' hearts fell into chaos, then it wouldn't be Heaven's turn to decide — the massive but loosely organized force would simply collapse.

Liu Chengzong felt the room was a bit stuffy. He walked to the wall and propped open the wooden window. Instantly, a blast of cold wind mixed with snowflakes crashed into the room, clearing his muddled mind.

He followed his train of thought and said, "Hun Tian Wang received it in Yanchuan, Hun Tian Hou received it in Luochuan, my elder brother intercepted it half a month ago at Yan'an prefectural city, yet Master Gao in Yanchang and I in Ansai did not receive it. What does that tell you?"

Did that even need asking?

Gao Yingxiang could not be bothered to answer.

Liu Chengzong had not expected him to answer either; he was just sorting out his own thoughts. "Three-pronged advance: Yang He from Guyuan, Hong Chengchou from Hancheng, and the northern force... No, Guyuan should be slower than the northern force. Could it be Zhang Nian?"

Gao Yingxiang added, "The northern force should be Shenmu Mobile Corps Commander Ai Wannian and Ningzhai Mobile Corps Commander Ai Mu. Heng Tian Wang has mentioned them, and next year as well."

Gao Yingxiang, as if he had just remembered this, looked at Liu Chengzong and said, "It's snowing in Yan'an Prefecture, and then there's this letter — what do you think about next year?"

As the saying goes, a timely snow foretells a bountiful year.

But for him, snow was no good omen.

When the bountiful year came, they would be finished.

On this strange land of northern Shaanxi, a single snowfall could change many things.

The common folk who were protected by them and who also provided them with information would no longer need to resist taxes.

"Just this morning I sent someone to Zuantianmao to have my elder brother find another place to hide. For my people here, there is no place to hide. Next year we'll most likely be roaming and drifting everywhere."

"When I came over, I saw the river valley land was all planted with wheat. Can you bear to leave it?"

"With this one snowfall, the eleven qing of wheat fields in the river valley might yield nine dou. If next year there's no drought, the fifty-plus qing of slope land and the sixty-plus qing of tribute-submitted fields at four dou rent — this one place alone could support my entire battalion."

Liu Chengzong tallied up the harvest of the Xingzi River and shook his head with a laugh. "What can I do even if I can't bear it? I plan to have my eldest brother come over. If we can hold it, we hold it; if we can't, then we just don't have the fate to eat that grain."

The fields of the Xingzi River princely estate were so vast that Gao Yingxiang and his several personal attendants were dumbstruck.

It even made Gao Yingxiang blurt out as if possessed, "If I come over and combine forces with you, can we hold it?"

Liu Chengzong gave a faint, ambiguous smile. "What do you think, Master Gao?"

In truth, it was very possible they could hold it — they could hold against the first and second assaults.

But the first assault would expose them to the government army's sight, and the second assault would be a full-scale advance, with troops and commanders deployed simultaneously to seal every key route.

What followed would inevitably be massing heavy cannons, pressing step by step, seizing water sources and fertile fields to lay siege, sowing discord and turning insiders to launch a fierce attack. In the end, they would either break out or be trapped and worn down to death.

But if it was all for a breakout, then what meaning was there in holding out to the death for a month, half a year, or even a year?

Gao Yingxiang shook his head and clicked his tongue. "It just feels like a pity. Others aren't like you — they're not afraid of this letter. The other leaders all plan to hide far away... Shanxi — are you going?"

"All going to Shanxi?"

Gao Yingxiang nodded. "All going to Shanxi. Heng Tian Wang will go from Fugu and Hequ to deal with Ai Wannian and enter Shanxi; Zuo Guazi and Hun Tian Hou will go to Hancheng to seek revenge on Hong Chengchou and enter Puzhou; Bu Zhan Ni will cross from Jiazhou, and I will cross the river from Wubao."

This was a full-front assault on Shanxi.

Liu Chengzong asked, "Then what about Shaanxi?"

"Old Chai Li and Old Huihui don't want to enter Shanxi. For this push into Shanxi, the northern forces will fight southward, and the southern forces will fight northward. Old Huihui and Old Chai Li aren't going — they'll hold the Suide, Qingjian, and Yichuan line. What do you think?"

Liu Chengzong silently calculated in his mind.

Along the northern border wall line, the government army had Wang Jiayin and Old Huihui tying them down; on the southern Hancheng line, Wang Zuogua and Old Chai Li would handle them.

That meant only the government army from the Qingyang direction remained. Over there, the local forces of Han Chaozai and the two brothers Liu Liu and Liu Qi were present, and the northern gate of Yan'an Prefecture had Ren Quan'er's Fortress Gate Garrison.

In that case, it would not be too dangerous for his father and brother to remain near Yan'an prefectural city.

"When do we set out?"

"Next year, in the third month."

Liu Chengzong nodded. "Then I'll take the Yanshui Pass."

Yanshui Pass — he knew that place well, and most importantly, the target was familiar.

Earlier that year, when he still had only a few hundred men, he had spied from afar on the estate fields of the Qingcheng Princely Estate of the Jin Principality in Fenzhou Prefecture, though he had been blocked at the time by the Guangwu Town Patrol Office in the Lüliang Mountains.

This time would be different. He was going to fight his way into Xiaoyi, seize a few manors of the Qingcheng Princely Estate, and distribute some grain to the common folk of Shanxi as well.

For this kind of thing, better early than late — if you were late, the princely estate would be gone.

Gao Yingxiang did not stay long at the Xingzi River. After just one meal, he galloped back to Yanchang. Traveling with him was Wei Qian'er, who was going to relay a verbal message to Cao Yao to continue east and scout the situation at Yanshui Pass.

Two days before the New Year, Liu Chengzong brought Chief Mei and Little Zuanfeng back to Zuantianmao.

The Panlong River valley was plagued by rats, which delighted Chief Mei to no end. She had endless work to do, catching them from New Year's Eve all the way to the third day of the new year.

Eating them herself wasn't the end of it. It was as if she finally had a chance to repay Liu Chengzong for raising her — during those New Year days back at Zuantianmao, the old Liu family's roosters could all take a holiday.

Every morning, before the sky was even light, Liu Chengzong would be woken by the little cat's loud, scolding yowls outside his door.

Outside the threshold, without fail, would be neatly arranged several fat, black rats.

This was not Chief Mei showing off her work results — in truth, it meant she was calling him to breakfast.

And really, in northern Shaanxi of these years, because so many people defied heaven and earth and refused to believe in evil, everything was thin — only the rats grew fat.

They feared the cold too, so in winter they sought out people, burrowing into houses and digging holes.

He heard from the tenant farmers at Zuantianmao that when some households were on the verge of running out of food, they would sneak back to Black Dragon Mountain to hoe the ground, digging up the seeds they had scattered earlier that never sprouted.

They never dug up a thing — the seeds buried in the earth had simply vanished.

But when they found a rat hole, every dig struck true. Inside were piles of seeds the rats had hidden away that hadn't germinated — enough at one go to cook half a pot of gruel.

Old Master Liu was a man who could keep things to himself. During the New Year days, when Liu Chengzong spoke of his plans for spring, he said nothing, until the third day, just before Liu Chengzong was to return to the Xingzi River, he called him over at breakfast.

"Lion, when you lead the troops toward Shanxi in the second month, make a trip back to Black Dragon Mountain before you go. Deal with that brother-in-law of the Prefect, so the family can properly sweep the ancestral graves at Qingming."

Liu Chengzong bent over his rice, asking indistinctly, "What about Zhang Nian?"

"Zhang Nian's no trouble. Just have anyone fire a single shot in the city, and that'll do."

Liu Xiangyu was so furious talking about it that his teeth itched with rage: "That brother-in-law of his has moved into the fort our family built — so the Liu clan ended up building a fort for him!"