Chapter 319: The Limit

By Lei Pool north of Wangjiang, Pang Yu and He County Yamen stood before the boundless lake waters, as flock after flock of migrating birds flew across the sky.

"The locals around Leigang say the birds usually fly off long before this time of year. Maybe it's the cold this year — the birds are all leaving a bit late," He County Yamen beside him said quietly. "Come to think of it, it really is much colder than in years past. It's already the fourth month and we've barely had a few rains."

"The Little Ice Age." Pang Yu lifted his head to look at the sky. His understanding of climate surpassed his knowledge of dynastic history. The Little Ice Age was not a brief process of a few decades; it was linked to the sunspot activity cycle. Each period of temperature decline severely impacted agricultural production, triggering all manner of economic problems, followed by political instability, and then possibly epidemics and war. These had major effects on asset prices, so Pang Yu paid more attention to climate than the average person.

Although modern society had more developed productive forces and access to a greater variety of energy sources, humanity still appeared tiny when confronting the climate, let alone under the survival conditions of ancient times. Pang Yu vaguely recalled that the final years of several dynasties in ancient history all fell at low points in the cooling cycle.

Compared to the Western Han, Yuan, and Northern Song dynasties, which all ended during cooling periods, the Ming dynasty was even more unfortunate. It experienced two grand solar minima: the first was the Spörer Minimum, after which came the Tumu Crisis; the second was the Maunder Minimum, which occurred right at the end of the Ming. Temperatures then were even lower than at the end of the Yuan. The Tianqi and Chongzhen reigns fell during a period of sharply declining sunspot numbers, which plummeted to near zero in the 1640s. This corresponded to a continuous drop in temperature at the time, with severe droughts and floods alternating, seriously impacting agricultural yields. The higher the latitude, the greater the impact. Such periods often spurred nomadic peoples toward stronger southward migration.

This seventeenth-century Little Ice Age dealt a severe blow to the global living environment. The hundreds of thousands of roving bandits before his eyes were likely closely connected to it. But even knowing such a link existed, it was of no help whatsoever to Pang Yu, because he could do nothing about the climate. The bandits, though powerful, still fell within the realm where effort could be made.

The overall military situation remained largely unchanged. The over one hundred thousand roving bandits at Huangmei and Guangji hung like a sharp sword poised over the western flank of Anqing, ready to fall at any moment. And because Susong lay in ruins, the troops stationed there were limited, leaving the Anqing government troops in a passive defensive posture.

Pang Yu no longer held any hope of taking the offensive. The only favorable condition he could exploit was that the bandits' own survival situation was also poor. Huangmei and Guangji had been raided many times, and they could no longer plunder much in the way of supplies. After last winter's defensive operations, Pang Yu wanted no further cooperation with any allied forces. Encircling and annihilating a few large camps now seemed unreliable. He could only set his sights on small camps. This deployment of troops at Wangjiang was preparation made precisely for that.

Besides the front line against the bandits, Pang Yu had another, smokeless front. He County Yamen had rushed over from the Prefectural City today precisely for that.

"Ruan Jin made thorough inquiries at the Circuit Intendant Yamen. This investigation into Second Brother — under ordinary circumstances it would be a routine matter. But because it involves Qian Qianyi, when it reached the Cabinet, it was Zhang Zhifa who drafted the Drafting and Redacting. It was written quite severely. Not only was it sent down to the Yingtian Regional Inspector for investigation, but a document was also simultaneously sent to the Ministry of Justice, to look into matters related to Second Brother at the core of the Qian Qianyi case."

Pang Yu narrowed his eyes. He only knew that Zhou Renzai came from the imperial palace in the Capital, but he had no clear idea how much influence Zhou actually wielded there, or whether he could affect Zhang Zhifa. But having no connections in the Capital was his greatest hidden vulnerability at present.

"Where is Qian Qianyi now?"

He County Yamen said in a low voice, "According to the news sent by Mr. Ma, the very day Commander Zhang returned to Jiangnan, he unsealed the confidential document from the Ministry of Justice and had Qian Qianyi arrested for questioning. He has already been sent to the Capital. Jiang Fan's side also received word. Rumors are circulating everywhere in Nanjing that Commander Zhang, for the greater good, turned on his own kin — sending his former examination master to the execution ground to save himself."

Pang Yu rubbed his chin. "An explicit order from the Ministry of Justice — unless one plans to rebel, naturally it must be carried out. But even having arrested his former master and sent him to the Capital, Commander Zhang's current situation may not improve much."

"That is indeed the case. The very day Commander Zhang arrested Qian Qianyi, he submitted a memorial requesting resignation. Commander Zhang is probably afraid."

Hearing this, Pang Yu knew it was also information from Mr. Ma. As Zhang Guowei's Chief Advisor, such major matters would certainly have been discussed with him back in Anqing. With the Ministry of Justice issuing a document to arrest the man, Zhang Guowei had no choice but to comply. But if he remained comfortably in his high post afterward, the flood of condemnation from all sides would drown him. So requesting resignation was a necessary gesture — to show he had not arrested his former master merely to keep his official hat, and also to express some degree of displeasure to the Emperor. As to whether excessive pressure was a personal factor, only Zhang Guowei himself knew.

"Commander Zhang's return to Jiangnan is not just because he holds a dim view of the Qian Qianyi affair. I fear he also holds a dim view of the outcome of this fight against the roving bandits," Pang Yu said softly. "Here in Anqing, Circuit Intendant Shi is conducting the investigation into me. Although Circuit Intendant Shi told me it only involves minor points, I am still uneasy. Did Ruan Jin manage to find out how the Circuit Intendant Yamen plans to reply to the throne?"

"That much we did manage to find out. The first minor point is the breaking of a marriage contract without cause, leading to a tarnished reputation for the commoner girl Liu Ruozi..."

He County Yamen paused here. Pang Yu did not know whether to laugh or cry. He was being investigated after being framed by a eunuch, and the first item in the investigation's conclusion was a broken engagement.

"Circuit Intendant Shi certainly knows how to investigate. This truly is a minor flaw. What else is there after that?"

"There are a few other things — some chi Vacancy Salary, allowing troops to forcibly occupy civilian residences, and the like. The amounts are all small. After that, it lists in detail Second Brother's achievements in quelling civil unrest, defending Anqing, and reinforcing Jiangnan. Under ordinary circumstances, the court would not pursue it."

"I'm just afraid this time is not ordinary." Pang Yu frowned in thought. "You made a special trip from Anqing — is there other urgent business?"

"Liu Ruogu brought a letter. There are also some rumors about you, my lord, in the Southern Capital. They say you are implicated with Qian Qianyi because of the money house. At the Silver Bank, many people are giving up their interest just to withdraw their silver in cash. In three days, over thirty thousand taels have been withdrawn. This news was sent seven days ago — we don't know how things have been these past few days." He County Yamen's expression was grave. "There is also a piece of news from Mr. Ma. I do not know if it counts as urgent. It says Commander Zhang intends to remove Anqing from the jurisdiction of the Yingtian Grand Coordinator. He says he has long intended this, but this time he specifically had Mr. Ma draft the detailed provisions. It seems he has made up his mind to carry this out."

Pang Yu furrowed his brow. It all seemed to be bad news. The Silver Bank had already been misappropriated to a significant degree, though compared to the total deposits, it was still not much. The withdrawal of thirty thousand taels was not large in itself, but the worry was that it might be the start of a bank run. Especially once rumors started — in a place like Nanjing, information circulated far faster than in Anqing. The more money people had, the more they cared about risk. A bank run could easily form, and then all the effort poured into the money house would vanish into nothing. The longer the Qian Qianyi affair dragged on, the more disadvantageous it became.

The matter of Zhang Guowei transferring Anqing's jurisdiction was equally bad news. Anqing belonged to the Yingtian Grand Coordinator, meaning there were no administrative barriers with the Jiangnan region. Through Zhang Guowei's position, Pang Yu could more conveniently obtain economic benefits in Jiangnan. Once it was divided under a different Grand Coordinator, the difficulty of getting things done would multiply.

In Zhang Guowei's eyes, Anqing was now a severely negative asset that needed to be offloaded as quickly as possible — and the Garrison Battalion would be packaged right along with it, to escape the current dire situation. Ultimately, it still came down to his dim view of the outcome of the fight against the roving bandits. Everything still seemed to hinge on whether Pang Yu could achieve a major victory.

"Also, there is a dispatch report from the Provincial Courier Official at the Viceroy of Water Transport's office. Liu Liangzuo entered the mountains ten days ago."

This news was not bad, but not good either. Pang Yu made a quick mental calculation and nodded. "With Liu Liangzuo entering the mountains, the roving bandits' room to maneuver shrinks further. Lord Zhu does not want the bandits entrenched in areas near Lu'an Prefecture. He wants to drive them elsewhere. Right now, Henan and Huguang are both blocking and intercepting. It seems the weakest point is our Anqing."

"Lord Zhu's intentions are hard to fathom."

Pang Yu smiled. "His intentions are actually not that hard to guess. It's nothing more than seeking advantage and avoiding harm. But the outcome is plain to see. The bandits' room to maneuver grows ever more cramped. If Liu Liangzuo occupies Huoshan, the roving bandits will not keep wandering in the mountains. Otherwise, if another strong force comes from Huguang, they'll be trapped and die in the mountains. When they had grain, they could wear down the government troops' logistics, but not now. This time, several Mounted Bandits captured by Zuo Liangyu confessed — they truly have no grain left."

He County Yamen's face was full of worry. The current internal and external situation was extremely poor. The officers and men of the Garrison Battalion probably could not feel it, but he was very clear on Pang Yu's predicament. Both fronts were deadly. He shook his head. "No wonder Zuo Liangyu left. He's been fighting bandits for ages — he knows when they're going to fight to the death."

"Others fear them coming. I am just waiting for them to come fight to the death." Pang Yu gritted his teeth. "I believe the roving bandits will still enter via Susong. As far as we know, there are fourteen camps at Huangmei and Guangji. If they go west, that's an old route they've taken before — their plunder would surely be scant, and Huguang government troops are blocking the way. South is the Great River. North, the mountain paths through Yingshan are difficult to travel, and they could be blocked and trapped in the mountains. Now that Liu Liangzuo has blocked Huoshan, the roving bandits choosing the weakest point, Anqing, is the most logical choice."

Having said this, Pang Yu raised his head to look at the sky. Another batch of migrating birds had just flown past. "Detestable that Zuo Liangyu wasted a perfect opportunity. Otherwise, with the massive concentration of forces last month, we could have wiped out Geli Yan. I've seen through them all now. This time, we fight on our own. No reaching beyond our grasp. The bandits number at least over a hundred thousand — they can't all travel the post road. Once they enter Susong, they will inevitably split their forces to head for Shipai and Wangjiang. I will wait for them right at these two places. Once they enter this route, I'll use the Water Army to transport troops and cut off the Susong road. Let's see where they run then."

He County Yamen looked up at Pang Yu. This Second Brother wore an expression of clenched fury. Since his inexplicable Spirit Awakening, He County Yamen had never seen him like this. Not even that night at Yunji Temple, when the Chuzhou troops appeared and the situation was so desperate — Pang Yu had not looked like this. If he was not simply enraged by Marshal Zuo, then it meant the current situation was even more dire, and even Pang Yu's mental spirit was nearing its limit.

For the first time ever, He County Yamen wished the roving bandits would come sooner. If this dragged on any longer, he figured both Pang Yu and himself would go mad.

Just as he was about to offer a prayer to Heaven, the guide Xie Zhaofa, who had been waiting in the distance, came walking over hurriedly.

Pang Yu heard the footsteps, turned around, and watched Xie Zhaofa approach from afar, yet still did not rush to question him.

Xie Zhaofa came up before him and said, "My lord, military intelligence just received from the Marine Corps: two camps of roving bandits have appeared at Chenhan Mountain. One of them is Chuang Tatian. They have no scouts. They have come out of the mountains in full force, bringing their servants and family dependents. They have been advancing all day along the Sanxi River. At the time the report was sent, their Vanguard had already exited the Mountain Pass. Additionally, when the Marine Corps messenger passed Erlang Bridge by boat, they saw mounted bandit scouts active in the direction of Huangmei."

"Send word to all units at Shipai and Wangjiang: cancel all training, all personnel on standby. Cavalry is to withdraw from the Fengyi Shangxiang area of Susong and must not engage the bandit scouts. Order the Water Army and Marine Corps to continue dispatching follow-up reconnaissance. Scout by water the military situation along the line from Erlang Town to Susong. Travel only on grain transport ships. Do not fly any Water Army banners. All scouting troops are strictly forbidden to wear our battalion's military uniforms."

Xie Zhaofa asked, "Should this military intelligence be sent as a dispatch report to the Circuit Intendant Yamen?"

Pang Yu waited a moment, then shook his head slightly. If he informed Shi Kefa, Shi would certainly redeploy part of the Garrison Battalion to Taihu. Pang Yu did not dare disobey orders at this moment, because the reply to the investigation into him was still in Shi's hands. The most likely outcome would be a repeat of past experience.

Xie Zhaofa asked no further questions. He immediately turned back to give instructions to the relay horse rider.

Pang Yu glanced at He County Yamen, bit his lip, and said, "Since everyone wants a fight to the death, then let's settle this sooner rather than later."