Chapter 392: Probing

"In the eleventh month of the second year of Chongzhen, the Tartars invaded the imperial environs; in the fifth month of the third year, they withdrew beyond the border — it lasted seven months. In the fifth month of the fifth year, they invaded Xuan-Da; in the sixth month, they withdrew — lasting only one month. In the seventh month of the seventh year, they invaded Xuan-Da again; in the intercalary eighth month, they withdrew — lasting two months. In the seventh month of the ninth year, they invaded; in the ninth month, they withdrew — lasting two months. Below are the routes and ranges of each incursion. The first, in the second year of Chongzhen, entered via three routes — Da'ankou, Hongshankou, and Dragon Well Pass — assembled at Zunhua, passed through Tongzhou to the Capital..."

In a large residence west of Xiangyang City, inside a tile-roofed house that had not been burned, Xie Zhaofa held a compiled document and used a tree branch to point at a map hanging on the wall.

This map had been revised by Pang Yu — mainly a northern border defense map. Pang Yu had drawn the general shape from memory, then combined it with actual administrative markings. Pang Yu could not obtain the Nine Borders map from the Ministry of War; it was Fang Yizhi who found materials his father had compiled and provided them to the Adviser Division for reference. The invasion routes came from years of Court Gazette reports, and only after great effort was it completed. Even so, the military officers present were still utterly confused — especially as Xie Zhaofa kept rattling off new place names. These southern officers from the Great River region had never heard of them, nor could they imagine what the grasslands beyond the Nine Borders looked like.

Fortunately, assistants from the Adviser Division had pasted several arrows made of red silk strips onto the map. The second invasion route was marked in blue. A quarter-hour later, Xie Zhaofa finished his explanation. The red silk strips covered the Capital and the Xuan-Da region.

Xie Zhaofa set down the branch and took his seat. Pang Yu waited a moment for the officers to digest it, then asked, "Clerk Xie has just spoken for some time. What insights have you all gleaned? Speak whatever comes to mind — every Qianzong must say something."

Silence fell over the meeting hall for a moment. The officers exchanged glances, none willing to speak first. Just as Pang Yu was about to call on someone by name, the blacksmith across from him stood up first.

"The Tartars invade the border every two or three years — at the earliest in the fifth month, at the latest in the eleventh. The second year of Chongzhen lasted the longest; after that, all lasted only one or two months. This year marks two years since the last one — I fear it is about due. The entry point will be between the fifth and tenth months, lasting around two months. That is all this subordinate has gleaned."

"Which month do you think is most likely?"

The blacksmith tilted his head and studied the map for a long moment. "The seventh month."

Pang Yu nodded and gestured for the blacksmith to sit, then looked at Yao Dongshan. Yao Dongshan stood and thought for a moment. "Judging by these past invasion routes, the Tartars move slower than the Roving Bandits, but they capture more cities and towns than the bandits do."

"Why do you suppose they move slowly?"

"Their forces are numerous. They plunder more meticulously than the bandits, and they are unafraid of Government Troops pursuing and attacking them. One would think their combat strength is far superior to the bandits'."

"Well said." Pang Yu had Yao Dongshan sit, then called on Chen Rulie.

Chen Rulie rose and moved his hand away from his chin. "The Tartar incursions mostly split into three routes. After entering, they assemble, then split again to plunder. Their forces are relatively dispersed — we could choose one contingent to strike. But what this subordinate most wants to know is the Tartars' infantry and cavalry troop types. Clerk Xie did not mention that just now."

Pang Yu turned to look at Xie Zhaofa, who hurriedly added, "The Adviser Division has not obtained detailed information on Tartar troop types — it mainly comes from Pang-daren's conversations with General Officers of Liao Garrison background such as Marshal Zuo and Chen Yuwang. The Tartar main force is the True Yi Eight Banners, mostly Armored Soldiers who ride horses but fight on foot. The strongest among them are the White Armor Soldiers, who can wear two or three layers of armor and are used to break formations and crush vanguards. There are also True Yi armored light cavalry used for cavalry battles, Mongol Banner light cavalry, and Outer-Vassal Mongol Light Cavalry. These light cavalry are numerous — some armored, some not. Their horses are superior to those of government troops. The most numerous are the bondservants — these men have swords, spears, and other weapons but no armor. Their combat strength is low; they barely qualify as light infantry. There is also a contingent of firearm soldiers. That is to say, the Tartars are similar to our Cavalry Camp — they possess troop types including heavy armor infantry, armored cavalry, light cavalry, light infantry, and firearm soldiers. Their armor, weapons, and equipment are excellent, and their numbers are vast."

At these words, a slight stir rippled through the room. What they had faced before were all Roving Bandits — the only ones that basically counted as combat-effective were the light cavalry. The light infantry were mostly servants serving as cannon fodder. But the Tartars possessed a complete array of troop types.

Pang Yu rapped on the table. Once silence returned, he said, "Just now Battalion Commander Yao said the Tartars move slowly. They are indeed slower than the Roving Bandits. When the bandits' Mounted Bandits flee, they cover two hundred li a day; when raiding a city, they can cover a hundred li in a day. But the Tartars will not do this — it has to do with their troop composition. Moreover, their columns are larger. Plundering more meticulously means they must carry large numbers of carriages, so their mobility cannot compare to the Roving Bandits'. But that is their mixed formation. If the Tartar light cavalry operates independently, they can match the bandits' standard. Having heard about the Tartar army, you need not fear. If you carefully analyze the Tartar composition, it is actually not much different from the Roving Bandits — the same form, mixed with large numbers of servants and logistics trains. Furthermore, they also seize people and valuables. After entering the border, they carry large numbers of captives and supplies the whole way — their column is cumbersome and enormous. We, on the other hand, are a professional army — more efficient and flexible than they are. They should be the ones afraid. Wang Zenglu, you speak as well."

Wang Zenglu rose to his feet, tilted his head to look at the map again, and said, "This subordinate carefully examined the Tartars' marching routes. There are almost no places they repeated."

Pang Yu said approvingly, "Elaborate."

Wang Zenglu walked to the front of the map and used his hand to point at the silk strips. "Every invasion route entered through a different border pass. The subsequent plundering routes never overlapped with previous ones. The Tartars' routes were carefully chosen — it is clear they are quite familiar with conditions in Xuan-Da and the imperial environs. Perhaps, like the Roving Bandits, they make good use of spies."

"Then why do they choose thus?"

"Much the same as the Roving Bandits — to seize more things." Wang Zenglu turned and said respectfully to Pang Yu, "Any place plundered last time will yield little if visited again."

"Which means, this time the Tartars will not go to those regions again. So, everyone, which regions do you think the Tartars will strike this time?"

Wang Zenglu immediately said, "Shanxi, or Beizhi south of the Capital."

"Why not Shaanxi?"

"Shaanxi has been ravaged by Roving Bandits for years. The Tartars cannot be unaware — they would seize little there, and it is farther away."

Pang Yu gestured for Wang Zenglu to sit, then rose and walked to the map himself. Looking at the officers in the room, he said, "Summarizing everyone's opinions: this year, the Tartars will certainly invade. The timing will be between the fifth and tenth months — most likely the seventh month. The duration should be around two months. The invasion zone will be Shanxi or Beizhi south of the Capital. If we are to perform rally to the king, our best option is, after they invade, to concentrate our forces and strike one of their detached contingents while it is in mixed formation."

Chen Rulie spoke from below. "Since we can analyze this, the Ministry of War naturally should know it too. If an invasion is coming in the seventh month, the court ought to mobilize forces from all quarters now to assemble, so we can wait at ease for the exhausted enemy. Otherwise, if we have to march a thousand li to get there, men weary and horses spent — how can we fight?"

Pang Yu nodded. "In principle, that is so. Last time the Tartars invaded, we were at Puzikou and nearly had to perform rally to the king from a thousand li away — clearly the Ministry of War had not anticipated it. But we ourselves must anticipate. This year is already different from past years. The Eight Brigand and Liu Guoneng have both accepted pacification, and the various Roving Bandit factions in Henan have also sent men seeking pacification. On the surface, the bandit menace seems quelled. For now, we cannot be transferred away — we still have to keep an eye on these few. But once an invasion truly comes, the Ministry of War will be thrown into chaos and will certainly mobilize us."

Yao Dongshan cursed, "Does the Eight Brigand look like he's sincerely seeking pacification? If the Ministry of War wants to mobilize, they can mobilize the Eight Brigand first to fight the Tartars. Let's see if that dog brigand goes. If he doesn't, we'll wipe him out first, then go wipe out the Tartars."

The blacksmith and Chen Rulie voiced their agreement in unison. The other officers of Company Commander rank murmured among themselves. Wang Zenglu and Xie Zhaofa sat upright and still, not joining the discussion.

Pang Yu ignored it. When the discussion died down, he continued on his own, "If, when the invasion comes, the Eight Brigand has not rebelled again, we will most likely go perform rally to the king. At that time, we will need to cross through Henan. Apart from making logistical preparations, all General Officers must also prepare — in daily training, according to the newly issued syllabus, intensify training and preparation for combat against this type of mixed-troop force..."

At that moment, Pang Ding appeared at the door. He walked quickly to Pang Yu's side and said in a low voice, "Guo-xiansheng has arrived."

"Is it urgent?"

"Urgent. It seems the place for Zhang Xianzhong to receive his service ticket has been decided."

"Mianyang Port?"

Guo-xiansheng looked at Pang Yu and nodded. "Xiong-daren has decided to have Zhang Xianzhong receive his service ticket at Mianyang Port. His Excellency's intention is to have the General accompany him, to display the court's majesty."

Pang Yu rapidly searched his mind. He had inspected all the strategic points around Xiangyang and could immediately determine that this location was absolutely not chosen by Xiong Wencan, but by Zhang Xianzhong — because he did not dare come to Xiangyang to submit to pacification. He was clearly afraid the Government Troops would set a trap to lure him there. At the very least, it showed that Zhang Xianzhong's heart was not sincere in submitting to pacification, and that he was on guard against the court at every turn.

For the sake of a pacification, Xiong Wencan had allowed even the pacification site to be entirely decided by Zhang Xianzhong. All of this stemmed from the pressure to suppress the bandits by the third month. It seemed that after repeated probings, Zhang Xianzhong had thoroughly grasped his bottom line and was now completely leading the Eight Brigand by the nose.

The "suppress the bandits by the third month" deadline could seemingly be answered for. And Pang Yu could guess that the demand for Zhang Xianzhong to receive his service ticket in person must have come from the Ministry of War or the Emperor — using this to test Zhang Xianzhong's sincerity in seeking pacification. But the Ministry of War would not be so meticulous as to specify the exact location. This gave Zhang Xianzhong and Xiong Wencan room to maneuver.

Mianyang Port was sixty li south of the Gucheng County Seat (note: see Gucheng County Gazetteer), about eighty li from Xiangyang, and it lay north of the Han River. Zhang Xianzhong would not need to cross the river. The Government Troops were currently all on the other side of the Han. If they wanted to ambush him, they could not do it with too few troops — they would need to ferry the army across the Han, which would be very difficult to conceal from the Western Camp's patrol cavalry.

Xiong Wencan was now riding a tiger and finding it hard to dismount. Even if Zhang Xianzhong had set the location at the Gucheng County Seat, Pang Yu estimated Xiong Wencan could only accept it. But Xiong-daren was not entirely without worry — after all, Zhang Xianzhong was a monstrous bandit who killed people like scything flax, who had slain countless court officials, and he would not stay his hand just because Xiong was a high official. Going to Mianyang Port like this, anxious and fearful — this so-called "displaying the court's majesty" was merely a pretext. The main point was that he needed Pang Yu to bring troops as an escort.

Pang Yu immediately said, "Please rest assured, Xiansheng. I will certainly select elite troops and will by no means let the court lose face."

Guo-xiansheng smiled faintly. "Then General Pang, make your preparations first."

Pang Yu hurriedly continued, "Xiong-daren exhausted every effort to achieve this Pacification Company. The common people of the realm now have hope. However, this trip to Mianyang Port will inevitably involve considerable movement of troops and horses. This humble official proposes that we first communicate with the Western Camp's people, clearly stating the troops' marching route and arrival date, so as to avoid any misunderstanding with the Western Camp that might affect the Pacification Company."

Guo-xiansheng pondered for a moment, then nodded. "General Pang is thorough in his considerations. I shall arrange this matter."

Pang Yu shot Pang Ding a look. Pang Ding quickly produced a silver note from his sleeve and handed it over. Guo-xiansheng was taken aback — he had come to ask Pang Yu to handle a matter and had not expected Pang Yu to give him silver.

"Xiansheng toils for the common people. This is my token of gratitude, on behalf of all under heaven, for Xiansheng's virtue. Please, Xiansheng, you must not refuse."

Guo-xiansheng gave an "Ai," but did not return the silver note. He needed to hear what Pang Yu wanted.

Pang Yu said in a low voice, "I also have a humble opinion."

"General Pang, please speak."

"I have heard that recently, the trade routes to Gucheng have been completely severed. Not only can the common people not buy rice, beans, and goods, but even the Western Camp has nowhere to purchase them. The Western Camp has over ten thousand troops — Gucheng's local rice and beans cannot sustain them. They cannot go without food and supplies. If this continues, I fear it will breed trouble."

Guo-xiansheng nodded gravely. "That is indeed the case."

"The root cause is that those Hangshang do not know the Western Camp is sincerely submitting to pacification — they still treat them as Roving Bandits, so no one dares come. We must rely on our own government to handle it. Mianyang Port is on the west side of the Han River. If my Water Camp could be permanently stationed there from now on, commercial goods could be restored via the water route, immediately relieving the Western Camp's urgent need." Pang Yu paused. "At present, on the west side of the Han, there is not a single government soldier. We are still estranged from the Western Camp, leaving everyone guarding against each other. My meaning is this: the Western Camp could also station troops inside Mianyang Port. This would facilitate better interaction, and joint training would be more convenient. When Zhang Xianzhong is to suppress bandits to redeem himself in the future, coordination would be flawless. I must trouble Guo-xiansheng to explain this clearly before Xiong-daren."

Guo-xiansheng narrowed his eyes and pondered for a long while without speaking. Pang Yu knew he was weighing the pros and cons — the greatest worry was simply that Zhang Xianzhong would rebel again. But Mianyang Port was sixty li from Gucheng, not so close as to overly provoke Zhang Xianzhong. Pang Yu had deliberately emphasized it was the Water Camp, and that it could be jointly garrisoned with the Western Camp.

A foothold west of the Han River was extremely important to Pang Yu. Zhang Xianzhong was entrenched at Baishazhou — to his north and east lay the Han River, to his west was the mountain region, which was also his main line of retreat, and to his south, Mianyang Port could threaten that line of retreat.

In the negotiations, Zhang Xianzhong had continuously probed and found Xiong Wencan's bottom line. This time, it was Pang Yu probing Zhang Xianzhong's bottom line. Zhang Xianzhong had now gained a chance to catch his breath. Having negotiated to this point, the sunk cost he had paid was not small. The Western Camp's supplies were scarce, government troops were massed all around — the likelihood of him immediately rebelling again was not high.

The threat posed by Mianyang Port was neither small nor large — it was at a suitable level. If Xiong Wencan nodded and Zhang Xianzhong did not rebel again, then Pang Yu would at least have gained a foothold on the west bank.

Guo-xiansheng raised his head, studied Pang Yu carefully, then smiled faintly. "Pang-daren is thorough in his considerations. If it is a joint garrison, this old man believes Vice General Zhang should agree."

"I've put you to trouble, Guo Xiansheng."

Guo Xiansheng said no more. He mounted his horse and rode out of the camp. Pang Yu turned around and immediately went back inside the house, pulled out the Adviser Division's map, and confirmed the location of Mianyang Port once more.

Pang Ding said from the side, "Young master, since we're mixing with the Roving Bandits, can we start doing business with them?"

"Business will be done, of course, but I'm more eager to force the Eight Bandits into rebellion sooner. Do you know, Zuo Liangyu also told me last time that the Tartars will certainly invade this year, and on a scale far beyond anything before. This is something every damn person knows, yet there's simply no way to prepare — because of the containment by the Eight Bandits and Liu Guoneng."

"But only sending the Water Camp to the port, and having them mix in defense with the Roving Bandits — if something really happens, I'm afraid the Water Camp won't be able to beat those bandit spawn."

Pang Yu gave a cold snort, standing up. "The Water Camp is naturally the Water Camp. But the Marine Corps is also the Water Camp."