Chapter 423: The Situation

"One contingent of Tartars entered through Wall Ridge on the western route, probed the border on the twenty-second day of the ninth month, and broke through Wall Ridge city on the twenty-ninth. By the nineteenth of this month, the Tartars were outside Mi's city walls. Around the twenty-fifth of the ninth month, the eastern-route Tartars entered through Qingshan Pass and encamped at Tongzhou on the nineteenth of this month. On the twenty-fifth, a Mi detachment reached Shunyi. The two forces appear to be attempting an assembly. On the fifteenth of the tenth month, the Ministry of War received a dispatch report from the Liao Garrison. Tashan, Xingshan, Xiao Linghe, and other locations reported back that roughly thirty thousand Tartar Mounted Armor are moving toward Zhonghousuo. As of the twenty-fifth, no report of a border incursion had yet been received."

The Advisory Room clerk accompanying the army finished reading carefully and added, "As of the twenty-fifth day of the tenth month, the Tartars have not captured a single city. Apart from the garrison troops at the Ji Garrison border passes, they have not routed any Government Troops force."

In the main hall of an inn outside Xuzhou city, Pang Yu used a charcoal stick to mark the map. Although the Dark Sentinel Division's secret message was also rather vague, it was still the most detailed enemy intelligence Pang Yu had received so far.

The map on the tabletop marked the major passes north of the Capital. Wall Ridge and Qingshan Pass were both among them. Pang Yu had marked each separately, but he had never been to either place, and from the map, the terrain was completely indiscernible.

"The composition of the Tartar forces."

"The western-route Wall Ridge incursion force numbers between thirty and forty thousand. A few days later, the eastern-route Qingshan Pass incursion force numbered around thirty thousand."

"That's it?"

"That's it. We do not know which Tartar banners they belong to, nor do we know which Bandit Slave chieftain is leading them."

"A month into the incursion and we still don't know the enemy's commanding general. What are the Ministry of War's scouts even doing?" Pang Yu finished cursing and then said, "The composition of the Government Troops sent to meet them."

"The Ministry of War divided the available troops in the Capital Environs into two forces. The first is led by Aid Commissioner Lu, comprising seven thousand men from the Xuan-Da Governor's Standard Army, five thousand from Xuanfu Regional Commander Yang Guozhu, six thousand from Shanxi Regional Commander Hu Dawei, eight to nine thousand from Datong Regional Commander Wang Pu, four thousand from the Shanxi Auxiliary Standard Camp, and four thousand from the Xuanfu Auxiliary Standard. The paper strength should be around thirty-five thousand. The two Provincial Commander's Standard Troops units have not arrived. Those already at the Capital are the Governor's Standard Army and the three Regional Commanders. Commissioner Lu has roughly twenty-eight thousand troops. The second force is led by Supreme Overseer Gao Qiqian, who came from the Liao Garrison. It includes the various units of Hou Gongji, Zhang Arrow, Wu Yonglu, Zhou You, and Yu Yongshou, all from the Liao Garrison and Shanyong. The total Regional Commander strength is between twenty and thirty thousand. By the twenty-fourth, roughly twenty thousand should have reached Tongzhou. The Ministry of War has also transferred Sun Chuanting from Shaanxi, though it is unknown how many troops he brings. The Shandong Grand Coordinator is stationed at Dezhou, and the Shuntian Grand Coordinator at Baoding. Zuo Liangyu's unit is also on the conscription roster, but his current location is unknown."

"Has the Advisory Room made any estimate of the actual troop strength of the Nine Borders garrisons?"

This Advisory Room clerk had originally been a Squad of Five leader in the First Division. He was wounded during the relief of Jiangpu and went first to the Military Office. When the Advisory Room was separated from the Military Office, he transferred there. Being clever and learning to read quickly, he soon became a clerk — effectively the deputy of the Advisory Room.

"Judging from the memorial of suggestions copied from the Ministry of War, the actual troop strength of the Nine Borders appears higher than that of ordinary garrisons. Household Retainers constitute between ten and twenty percent of the paper strength."

Pang Yu recalled the situation of the Yingtian Troops. The Household Retainers of Xu Strengthening, Cheng Long, and others were less than ten percent of paper strength. The Nine Borders were indeed higher. But from south to north, the Household Retainer System was universal — a distorted state of affairs that emerged after the military system failed. That after all these years, facing such immense military pressure, the court had carried out no effective reforms whatsoever was truly lamentable.

"Are the two forces under the Supreme Commander and the Grand Supervisor both elite troops?"

"What Commissioner Lu leads are indeed the elite of Xuan-Da. The army has a large cavalry contingent. The largest and longest-trained among them belongs to Datong Regional Commander Wang Pu's unit. His Household Retainers alone number over a thousand, and they have suffered no major losses in recent years. The troops transferred from the Liao Garrison and Shanhai Pass are mostly infantry and Firearm Soldiers, not comparable to Xuan-Da."

Chen Rulie looked at the map and said, puzzled, "The Tartars haven't assembled in a full month since entering the border. This is precisely the time to combine forces and launch a joint encirclement. Why are the Government Troops also stationed in two separate places? Why not surround and annihilate one contingent first? Once the Tartars form a Combined Camp, they'll be much harder to fight."

Pang Yu also frowned at the map. The two Qing army encampments — one northeast of the Capital, one directly east — could neither effectively threaten the Capital nor cut off traffic in and out of it. The Dark Sentinel Division's Messenger, for instance, had traveled without obstruction the entire way after leaving the city.

For an isolated army penetrating deep on such a campaign, the commander should assemble his forces as quickly as possible to prevent being defeated in detail. No Ming Army or natural barrier lay between the two encampments, yet the Qing army seemed in no hurry to assemble, instead halting in place to observe — a hint of something strange. And the Government Troops, for their part, did not seize the chance to combine forces and attack, which was equally baffling.

Pang Yu pointed at the map. "The western-route Tartars broke through Wall Ridge on the twenty-ninth of the ninth month, yet were still at Mi on the nineteenth of the tenth month. In a full twenty days, they moved less than a hundred li. The eastern route entered the pass slightly later and moved nearly four hundred li to reach Tongzhou. But the strange thing is, in the span of a month, neither route has attacked any prefecture or county. So what did they enter the border to do?"

Chen Rulie turned to look at Pang Yu. "Based on all previous experience when the Roving Bandits came to Jiangbei, as soon as word spreads, the rural populace flees into the cities. Rations and Pay, children — all are gathered inside the city walls. The Tartars march even slower than the Roving Bandits. Out in the wilds, the most they can loot is grain too heavy to carry off, not even enough to replenish their losses en route. Are they waiting for a third force?"

"I believe there may not necessarily be a third force. If this were a multi-pronged incursion, the three routes would not be a month apart. The Tartars have been fighting wars for decades; they would not deploy troops this way." The Advisory Room clerk tapped the charcoal stick on the location marking the Liao Garrison. "The last message sent back said that in the seventh month, the Ministry of War received a Liao Garrison dispatch report: Huang Taiji conscripted sixty registered individual from each Niu-lu to build roads at Shenyang. The Advisory Room believes Huang Taiji was not building roads, but using that as a pretext to assemble troops — the very two routes of this incursion. Based on intelligence gathered from various channels, in past years, each Tartar banner had around thirty Niu-lu, with the Bordered White Banner having the most at thirty-five. The total number of Eight Banners Niu-lu is around two hundred and fifty. Each Niu-lu has two to three hundred registered individual. The total True Yi registered individual is no more than fifty or sixty thousand. Those capable of fighting number only between twenty and thirty thousand. If sixty registered individual were drawn from each Niu-lu, the number of True Yi entering the pass would be fifteen thousand, with roughly ten thousand left to guard Liaodong. They still need to guard against the Liao Garrison raiding their home base, so they wouldn't commit everything. The Adviser Division's assessment is that there is no third force. If the Liao Garrison's intelligence is accurate, of those thirty thousand Tartars appearing at Xiao Linghe and Tashan, the True Yi contingent should be between five and ten thousand. Their purpose is to pin down the Liao Garrison Army, preventing Liao Garrison elites from entering the pass to encircle and attack the first two routes."

"Does the Liao Garrison even have any fucking elites?" Chen Rulie stood up and threw his charcoal stick onto the map. "The Tartars split half their forces to enter the border, and that half is further divided into two contingents. The elites drawn from the court's several hundred thousand Border Army don't even dare attack one of those split contingents. If they're not waiting for a third force, are they really waiting for peace negotiations?"

"But Zhang Mazi says public opinion in the Capital is in uproar; there is absolutely no possibility of peace talks." Pang Yu leaned against the edge of the table. "What exactly are the Tartars' intentions? Everyone give a clear opinion."

The Advisory Room clerk thought for a moment and said, "This subordinate believes they are resting and refitting their troops. The march from Shenyang, detouring through Mongolia to enter the border, is a journey of roughly a thousand li, taking about a month. Both men and horses would lose condition. They would need to recover near the Border Wall before fighting. Furthermore, after the Tartars entered, the Capital went under martial law. They also have no way of knowing public opinion in the capital, so they might still be waiting for peace talks."

Chen Rulie said with certainty, "The Tartars are waiting to engage the Relief Troops in battle. Specifically, they want to draw out the garrison forces of each city. After defeating them in the field, it will be easier to Breakthrough and loot, or even to directly threaten the Capital."

Pang Yu looked at Chen Rulie. "And if the Relief Troops still refuse to engage them?"

"Then they'll besiege Tongzhou, then shift toward the Hejian Prefecture and Tianjin Garrison area, to draw the Relief Troops into coming to the rescue."

The Advisory Room clerk added, "Or they might head south into Baoding and Zhending."

Pang Yu stepped away from the table and paced the main hall for a moment. The inn seemed to have been abandoned for quite some time. The wooden planks on the counter had been pried off and taken away. Scarcely any window paper remained, and dust covered everything. Xuzhou was the north-south hub of the east, similar to Xiangyang in the central region. Though the prefectural city had never been besieged by the Roving Bandits, it had been threatened many times. An inn like this outside the city walls was very difficult to keep running.

He closed his eyes and thought for a moment, then nodded. "What you've all said is possible. The Tartars' intent is actually very clear: they came a thousand li to invade and will absolutely not return empty-handed. Right now, this official does not know what they are waiting for. But if they have gained nothing after a full month inside the border, then this incursion is very likely to last longer than just two months."

The Advisory Room clerk asked in a low voice, "Then should the march plan be altered?"

"Since the Tartars are holding their forces in place, our march plan need not be so urgent. The cavalry will remain stationed at Xuzhou. The Logistics Division is to replenish fodder and rations as quickly as possible and await the arrival of the Personal Soldier Qianzong. The Tartars are currently at the Capital. To the west is Xuan-Da — they've already looted that area twice, so the likelihood of going again is very small. To the east is Shanhai Pass — they also looted there in the second year of Chongzhen, so they won't get sufficient Rations and Pay. To the north is the way they came, which needs no discussion. That leaves only one direction: south. The most likely destination is primarily the area south of the Capital, around Baoding and Hejian. The mounted scouts will advance into Zhili to reconnoiter. They must ascertain the Tartars' movements..." Pang Yu pointed at Chen Rulie. "If the mounted scouts encounter other Government Troops on the road, they are to say they came from Nanzhili to gather intelligence, and must not say they are here for rally to the king."

"The gentleman's meaning is to not let the Ministry of War know there is a force here?"

"The Tartars are moving strangely, and the court's troop deployments are in chaos. The Supreme Commander and the Grand Supervisor don't even agree on strategy. We are a small force of two thousand men — we must not get mixed up in such a chaotic situation. We'll fight our own war. Wait here in Xuzhou and see exactly where the Tartars go."

At the Charcoal God Temple outside the Capital's East Glorious Gate, the courtyard within the walls was covered in feces and filth. Over a dozen Eunuch Officials huddled against the walls inside the Charcoal God Hall. Lin Dengwan pressed close to the crack in the door, tilting his head to observe the situation outside.

Suddenly, he flailed his arms and legs in excitement and hurriedly pulled open the Gate Leaf. The great door creaked loudly. A figure clutching two large bowls to his chest dashed swiftly into the courtyard. The Gate Leaf was immediately shut again.

"Found food."

The Eunuch Officials huddled inside the Charcoal God Hall all sprang up at once and pounced into the courtyard like ravenous tigers. The figure threw the bowls onto the ground. Pancakes and Steamed Cakes scattered across the floor. The dozen-plus eunuchs rolled in a tangled heap on the ground, cursing and brawling with one another. Those who snatched food could not be bothered to stand up; they lay on the ground and began chewing furiously. Those who failed to grab anything tugged at others' arms, determined to tear off a piece of cake.

Lin Dengwan was close by. He grabbed two Steamed Cakes in his hands and had already run behind the door panel. Facing the corner of the door, he stuffed the Steamed Cakes into his mouth while panting, his cheeks bulging hugely as he kept cramming more in. Crouching beside him was Li Wu — the one who had just stolen the food back.

The very day he entered the palace, he encountered the Tartar Incursion. The old eunuch leading their group locked them in this temple and never returned. They had been forgotten inside the Charcoal God Temple for over a month, with no one coming to check on them. Fortunately, the Charcoal God Temple had no shortage of Firewood; otherwise, most of them would have frozen to death.

No one provided meals either. They relied on those with nimble legs to go out and steal. Lin Dengwan had been castrated only recently; his legs still had difficulty striding, and he had never gone out. This Li Wu was only fifteen, but had been castrated seven or eight years ago. His hands and feet were the most agile, and he was the one who went out to steal the most.

The scramble in the courtyard came to a temporary halt. Everyone had managed to get at least a little something. They wolfed down the food, some lying, some crouching.

Suddenly, someone outside shouted, "The one who stole the food just now ran right in here!"

Then came the sound of pounding on the door — bang, bang. Lin Dengwan could not worry about anything else. He kept chewing without pause, needing to swallow what was in his mouth as fast as possible.

Li Wu stepped back and leaned against the Gate Leaf. Seeing this, Lin Dengwan also pressed himself against it. He felt the door panel vibrating violently. A few other eunuchs nearby came over as well, and together they braced against the door panel.

The noise outside was chaotic, as if more and more people were gathering. One shrill voice was particularly piercing: "I wondered whose wretched dog-slaves dared — you even dare steal the food of the Imperial Stables Directorate!"