Chapter 430: Deduction

"Lingshou and Xingtang have both been breached. That band of Tartars that went south of Xincheng has broken through Renqiu, Wenan, and Gaoyang — the towns were looted and slaughtered clean. There are rumors that Shenzhou has been breached as well."

Xu Deshi coughed twice, his face flushed with a sickly pallor. After spitting out a mouthful of phlegm, he said, "The Tartars broke Gaoyang on the eleventh. Gao Qiqian has already recovered Sun Gebu's remains."

Lu Xiangsheng's face was haggard; in just a few days he seemed to have aged several years. Hearing this, his expression shifted slightly. He gazed eastward for a moment, then said, "Sun Gebu has also given his life for the nation."

Xu Deshi turned his head to look at Lu Xiangsheng. Since the Tartars had swept south, Ji'nan had been ablaze with beacon fires. These prefectures and counties had no war preparations whatsoever, and urgent dispatches pleading for reinforcements crowded the roads without end.

A strategic stronghold like Zhending, with its high walls and thick ramparts, might hold out — but of those many other prefectures and counties, most would likely not escape the fate of Lingshou and Xingtang. These cities desperately needed rescue by the rally to the king forces. So even though they still lacked provisions, the Xuan-Da Army had no choice but to march south.

Xu Deshi changed the subject. "Delayed two days, and every garrison still lacks grain. At least Baoding supplied us for two days. Since Zhending is begging for reinforcements, going there to secure provisions should be easier than at Baoding."

"The Tartars have been besieging it for days. Zhending has few troops — with or without grain, we must go."

Xu Deshi could hear the bleakness in Lu Xiangsheng's tone. As Commander-in-Chief of Relief, he held the concurrent title of Minister of War, yet here in Northern Zhili it carried little weight — even a County Magistrate dared openly defy his orders. Baoding Prefecture had doled out a little grain by the day; Qingyuan County had yet to give a single grain of rice.

During these two days of delay at Baoding, the Xuan-Da Army had already lost contact with the Qing forces. They only knew the Qing army's position through Zhending Prefecture's plea for aid — and that information was already two days old. Marching from Baoding to Zhending would take another two or three days. Who knew if the situation had changed.

Refugees fleeing from various regions brought vague and muddled reports, many of them contradictory. For a commanding general, losing track of the enemy's movements was a cardinal taboo — all the more so when that enemy might be seizing cities, seizing territory, and slaughtering the people. Xu Deshi could well imagine the agitation burning in Lu Xiangsheng's heart these past two days.

"When you reach Zhending, my lord, will you divide the troops to relieve them, or fight several pitched battles with the Tartars?"

"Not relieving them is to sit idle and indulge the bandits. Fighting several pitched battles is reckless engagement, throwing lives away." Lu Xiangsheng gave a bitter smile. "But one way or another, it must be done."

Xu Deshi was silent for a moment, then said, "Your subordinate will still accompany the Doutang. If trouble arises, there will be someone to consult."

Lu Xiangsheng raised his head and looked at Xu Deshi. "Yang Tinglin has only just arrived, but he is upright and capable. Xuecheng, you need not worry. Rest here at ease and recover from your illness. Your parents, wife, and children are here — this life of yours is not yet yours to give away."

Xu Deshi coughed twice more. "Yang Tinglin offended Yang Sichang and was sent down here as an advisor. He was originally one of the Remonstrance Officials — upright, yes, but full of nothing but bookish idealism. In military matters, I fear he has little insight."

Lu Xiangsheng waved his hand. Before he could speak further, he saw his Personal Guard captain Gu Xianyi hurrying over urgently. Lu Xiangsheng quickly stepped forward to meet him.

Gu Xianyi handed over a letter. "An urgent report from Zhending. The Tartars outside the Prefectural City have suddenly struck camp and left. No one knows where they have gone."

Lu Xiangsheng swept his eyes over it hastily, then looked up. "Strike camp. We leave for Zhending immediately."

……

"You think I'm afraid, young master? Even if we go north, so what."

On the twenty-second day of the eleventh month, the land of Shandong lay under a blanket of white snow. On the Official Road seventy li south of Jining Prefecture, snow lay several inches deep. A long marching column struggled forward through the howling wind and snow.

Pang Yu clutched his collar tight, trying to stop the frigid air from invading through the neck opening. He had already shrunk his neck down and pulled his collar up as high as it would go, but it seemed to do little good — he still felt the bone-piercing cold through his body.

"I've got that fox-fur collar with me. Would the young master like to wear it now?"

Pang Yu glanced around, then shook his head. "The soldiers seeing it wouldn't be proper. I'll put it on inside the tent after we make camp. Damn it, how is it this cold? Yan Guan, hold my horse for me."

The Personal Guard Captain walking ahead immediately turned back and took hold of Pang Yu's mount. This Yan Guan had followed Pang Yu to rescue the Right Wing during the Battle of Chemah, and at a critical moment had steadied Lord Pang with a helping hand — from then on he had caught General Pang's discerning eye. After Guo Fengyou was transferred out to Wuhu, Yan Guan became the new Personal Guard Captain.

Pang Yu slowly slid off the horse's back. He was not worried about losing face — in this winter cold, everyone's joints were stiff, and every man dismounted far more slowly than usual.

"How much longer until we make camp?"

Yan Guan replied respectfully, "The Scout Cavalry up ahead sent word back — they say there are still ten li to go. Today's camp ground is Luqiao."

Pang Yu tossed the reins to Yan Guan and swung both arms as he walked. Moving about made his body feel somewhat better, not as frozen as it was on horseback. In the cavalry columns ahead and behind, men could be seen waving their arms from time to time as well.

Pang Ding also dismounted and came up behind him, saying in a low voice, "Young master, any further north and the Grand Canal will be all ice. There truly won't be any boats then."

"That is a problem." Pang Yu furrowed his brow. Before, they had always fought near the water — before engaging, there had always been a choice. Shandong was a completely unfamiliar combat region. What he had envisioned was fighting along the Grand Canal, and if things went badly, boarding boats and fleeing. But the Tartars had come at the wrong time. North of Xuzhou, he had heard, many sections of the river had already frozen over. Grain Transport Ships could not get through.

Pang Yu hesitated a moment, then asked, "Which month does the ice thaw?"

"February or March."

"We won't be fighting until then — early January at the latest. Looks like we can't count on it. This time we'll take a bit more risk and go without the boats. I trust the Military Council's conclusion: the range of the Tartars' plundering — I don't think it will be too vast. It should be limited to Baoding and Hejian. If the Tartars want to plunder on a large scale, they'll have to split their forces. The Tartars splitting their forces is a weakness." Pang Yu clenched his fist. "Never mind their White Armor, Mounted Armor, Foot-Armour, Surplus Troops — the total number of True Yi who can actually fight is only so many. The estimate of fifteen thousand entering the pass shouldn't be far off. Each Banner has fewer than two thousand True Yi War Soldiers. The rest are attached Mongols, Han Army, Bondservants — each Banner, what, five or six thousand men in all."

"Young master, are you saying the reason Lu Doutang hasn't engaged is that he's waiting for the Tartars to split their forces?"

"We saw Lu Military Governor lead troops in battle at Chuzhou. Against the Roving Bandits, it was like chopping melons and slicing vegetables. The Tartars may be a bit stronger, but Lu Doutang has more troops and officers this time too. He's leading the Superintendent Battalion plus the Three Garrisons, and two Provincial Commander's Standard Troops as well — around thirty thousand men. His Household Retainers alone number more than three thousand. Dealing with a single Banner would be a matter of reaching out and taking it. At Chuzhou, he massed his forces and struck with concentrated power, shattering the Roving Bandit army in one battle." Pang Yu said with confidence, "This time he doesn't need to destroy the entire Tartar army — he only needs to deal a heavy blow to any single Banner. If I were Lu Doutang, I would ignore all that clamor from the Capital, resolutely refuse a general engagement with the Tartars, and patiently wait for them to split their forces. And the Tartars will inevitably split their forces — only by splitting up can they expand the scope of their plunder. The Tartars hope to first smash the reinforcing Ming troops to eliminate future worries. They chose to seek a decisive battle near the Capital, making it easier to send their dead and wounded out beyond the Border Wall, then plunder with a light load. But Lu Doutang has surely seen through the Tartars' scheme, which is why he's kept his troops in place. The Tartars waited a month without getting their wish. They came into the pass as a deep-strike invasion — time is not on their side. They were forced, with the threat still uneliminated, to split their forces. The Tartars are taking a risk."

Pang Ding turned his head to look back at the marching column. "So that's why you chose to enter Shandong at this moment, young master?"

Pang Yu waved his arms for warmth as he spoke. "Now that the Tartars have thrust south into Zhending, they are certain to split their forces. I believe Lu Doutang is waiting for the right moment — he may even have already begun his attack. Once he deals a heavy blow to one Banner, that Banner — because it must carry its wounded — will no longer possess the ability to maneuver or fight. The commander leading the Tartar forces won't dare split his troops further. They will have no choice but to regroup and strive to seek a decisive battle with the Government Troops. At that point, Lu Military Governor will hold complete initiative. He can freely withdraw into the cities. The Xuan-Da Army won't need to fight a general engagement with the Tartars — their mere existence will tie down the Tartars. The Qing army, unable to split up and plunder, and facing a threat if they linger too long, will have no choice but to withdraw beyond the Border Wall. By then, the Tartars will have gained nothing — their men exhausted, their horses spent, their morale low. Lu Doutang will then lead the Xuan-Da elite in pursuit. We're hurrying to Dezhou precisely to catch this moment. This is a fine opportunity — it would be a pity to let it slip."

"But once we enter Shandong, the local authorities will certainly report it to the Grand Coordinator. The Grand Coordinator will report it upward, and the Ministry of War will know about us."

Pang Yu patted Pang Ding's shoulder approvingly. "Very thorough thinking. The Advisory Room raised this during the Military Council too. I'm willing to take this risk, because the reward is also great. The Tartars hold our Ming Dynasty army in complete contempt — plundering this deep is practically acting as if there's no one here. This is a golden opportunity delivered to the imperial court. If they suffer defeat in the interior, not one man, not one horse will escape back to Liaodong. It will certainly be total annihilation. The Tartars will lose the greater part of their fighting strength... annihilation may be too strong a word, but making them suffer catastrophic losses is entirely possible."

Pang Ding nodded, half-understanding. "Things are different now from Chemah. Your situation is excellent, young master. Must you really go take this risk?"

Pang Yu raised his head and looked at the overcast sky. It seemed somehow familiar. Endless snowflakes drifted down in a hush, as if appearing out of thin air.

"I must go. Otherwise, why did I become a military officer?" Pang Yu let out a long breath, a white mist that vanished in an instant before his eyes. "When you get to the root of it, the Government Troops only need one battle — only need to win one battle — and the situation in Liaodong can be reversed. What they call a Banner entering the border is really just half a Banner's troops. Lu Doutang leads the Xuan-Da Three Garrisons — he can't possibly fail to take down even half a Banner's troops. He will certainly win one engagement. Once the Tartars begin to retreat, their army will be full of openings everywhere. That's when we can go help Lu Doutang."

"The young master's plan is the same as at Chuzhou — wait for Lu Doutang to bear the brunt of the hard fighting."

"Of course. He's the Doutang with many troops. How many men do I have? And all Southern Troops at that." Pang Yu clutched his collar again. "What the hell kind of weather is this? How can the Tartars march for so long — are they not human or something?"

He had barely finished cursing when two mounted scouts came racing from up ahead. Pang Yu looked over — Chen Rulie had come along too. It had to be important news.

The three men halted before Pang Yu. Chen Rulie hastily reported, "The Scout Company of the Cavalry Chief-of-a-Thousand Department reports back: at Linqing they encountered Relay Horses from three locations in Zhili and Shandong. The Tartars are besieging Gaoyang, Renqiu, and Danger County. Their Vanguard has appeared in the area of Wuqiao, Wuding, and Leling. Additionally, large numbers of commoners are fleeing from Zhending and Guangping toward Linqing, saying the Tartars have already entered Zhending Prefecture."

"Just as expected — the Tartars have indeed split their forces. Baoding Prefecture, Hejian Prefecture... and now they've even gone into Zhending Prefecture. Isn't this front a bit too wide... The Tartar Vanguard is at Wuqiao?" Pang Yu looked at Chen Rulie in astonishment. His memory was quite good, and the place name Wuqiao was distinctly familiar.

"Your lordship is perceptive. It is about thirty li from Dezhou."

Pang Yu stood stunned for a moment. "It takes at least four days for a message to reach here. Right next to Dezhou... the Tartars are that fast?!"

Chen Rulie was also a little tense. He looked at Pang Yu and said, "Wuding Prefecture and Leling are under Shandong's jurisdiction. The Tartars' objective is likely not limited to Hejian Prefecture. If the front truly stretches from Zhending Prefecture all the way to Wuding Prefecture, the rallying point won't be too close. For their Vanguard to advance so rapidly, I'm afraid they are heading for Linqing."

Pang Yu's expression was grim. The Qing army's Vanguard had reached Dezhou within a few days and had already entered Shandong — this far exceeded his estimates. Judging by the Roving Bandits' methods of operation, the Qing forces might be cutting the Official Roads to prevent the people of Hejian Prefecture from fleeing. But another possibility was that the Qing army was not confining itself to Hejian Prefecture — their objective might be Dezhou, or Linqing, or they might even sweep through the northern part of Shandong. If that were the case, Pang Yu could not continue his march, lest he collide head-on with the Qing main force.

No matter how logical the conjecture, it could not compare to a single piece of clear intelligence. Pang Yu turned to Chen Rulie. "Send orders to make camp at Luqiao as quickly as possible. Fly no banners of any kind. No contact with local authorities. Cancel tomorrow's march plan. Authorize the Scout Cavalry to enter Zhili for operations. Confirm the Tartars' direction of advance as quickly as possible."

Chen Rulie spun around and left at speed. Pang Yu's face was stern. He raised his head and looked toward the north, where dark clouds massed thick — a vast, indistinct expanse amid the wind and snow.

"The Tartars have finally split their forces. Lu Doutang, when exactly do you plan to attack?"