Chapter 448: Predicament

"This humble one thought they would be near today's march distance. The Tartars rested for several days, so when they launch an attack after gathering strength, they are naturally fast. Today the Tartar vanguard covered over a hundred li. According to the Xuan-Da household retainers we took in, every man in the Tartar vanguard rides a horse, can sleep on ice and lie in snow, and can march for days on end with only dry rations. Because they advance so swiftly, the prefectures and counties ahead may not even receive warning before the Tartars are already at the city walls, allowing them to launch a surprise breakthrough."

Clerk Tu pointed at Linqing. "But behind the vanguard follow many carriages and camp followers. Linqing city still has tens of thousands of troops, and the roads out of the city extend in all directions. If the Tartars want to bypass this place, they will be exposed everywhere along the march. They will certainly have to leave troops to guard against every road, and the rearguard force cannot be too small either. Thus the Tartars will be split into several segments, and their whole army may not move so fast."

Chen Rulie frowned. "They will each go their own way. The ones in front will still advance rapidly, breaking cities and burning and killing everywhere, while the ones behind follow along. The Linqing garrison won't dare to harass them."

"The Linqing troops dare not harass them, but the Tartars cannot afford not to guard against them. They will certainly leave troops along the roads to block and intercept. There are countless roads around Linqing, which will surely disperse their forces." Clerk Tu thought for a moment, then added, "This humble one believes that the two Tartar columns at Qinghe and Hongguan Camp will both cross the river at Youfang Ferry. If they do not take the old route they came by, they will advance toward Xiajin and Gaotang Prefecture. The scattered scout cavalry that reached Dai Family Bay after nightfall were only there to reconnoiter the surrounding situation, not necessarily to march in this direction."

Wu Dacai stood up. "Does the Advisory Room think the Tartars will head straight north through Gaotang Prefecture after crossing the river, or go east first and then north?"

"This subordinate still believes they will certainly go east first, then north." Clerk Tu pointed at the map. "The Tartars number several hundred thousand, with tens of thousands of carriages. If they used only the single main road through Gaotang Prefecture, they could not finish crossing even in two months. From what the scout cavalry have detected alone, the Tartars have divided into at least five columns — Guantao, Yao'an Town, Balizhuang, Eighteen-Mile Post, Qinghe — using all the best roads available. The Qinghe column may go via Gaotang. If this column goes far enough, all the way to the walls of Jinan Prefectural City, then turns north again — Jinan is a provincial capital, the Tartars cannot take such a large city, but the outskirts are far richer than many county seats, perfect for looting all the way back."

Wu Dacai immediately followed up. "Then the two columns at Chujiaquan and Guantao, coming from the south, will certainly go through Dongchang to Boping. If their daily march exceeds a hundred li, they could reach this place by tomorrow."

Clerk Tu nodded. "The Chujiaquan Tartars may already be crossing the river at this moment. If they move fast, they could arrive here by tomorrow evening. But we will not be staying put tomorrow. This Tartar column should go from Boping to Chiping, then continue marching toward Changqing. We have already turned south at Chishan Post to avoid this main road."

Chen Rulie said loudly, "If the Guantao column goes east from the south side of Dongchang Prefecture, from Dong'e County toward Yinping — if we reckon by two days — it will block us precisely on the Dong'e Post road."

The atmosphere in the tent was tense. Wu Dacai and Chen Rulie seemed to be treating the Advisory Room as an opponent. Clerk Tu's face was bright red. "That still requires careful calculation of the march distances. The Advisory Room's calculations suggest they cannot block us..."

Chen Rulie abruptly stood up. Pang Yu gently tapped the table. Chen Rulie had no choice but to stop. The few of them silently looked at Pang Yu.

"To sum it up in one sentence: the Tartars are moving from west to east, their offensive front stretching from Qinghe to Guantao. The Advisory Room believes the Tartars who crossed the river north of Linqing pose little threat to us. We should focus on the Chujiaquan and Guantao directions."

Clerk Tu caught his breath and nodded. Pang Yu stood up. "The Guantao direction — or an as-yet-undetected column heading toward Daming Prefecture — the Tartars will turn east from there toward Dongchang Prefecture. But Dongchang's walls are tall and strong. The Tartars will likely plunder the outskirts. Based on our earlier assessment of their northward return timing, this Tartar force will not continue south, but may continue east. After passing Dongchang Prefecture, if they head toward Dong'e, then turn toward Jinan Prefecture at Pingyin County, or detach a force heading east from Boping and Chiping counties — if our army remains at Boping city, we will engage this force tomorrow or the day after. Or the day after tomorrow, we could be blocked on the post road near Tongcheng Post by two Tartar forces."

Clerk Tu added, "The Guantao-direction Tartars turn east. This Tartar force should be light troops. Their carriages and camp followers still cross the river from Chujiaquan. Dongchang Prefecture's walls are tall and strong. The Tartars will likely plunder the outskirts. One detachment bypassing north of the city will head for Boping, Chiping, and Changqing. One detachment bypassing south of the city will head for Dong'e County and Pingyin County, all the way to the mountain foothills, then turn north afterward."

Pang Yu pointed at Boping's location. "In other words, we are still within the Tartar offensive front — unless we go south past Dong'e. But if there is another Tartar column at Daming Prefecture, then we have still not left the front. That column would go from Yanggu to Dong'e and still block us."

"This subordinate believes the greatest threat remains the Chujiaquan column. Today many scout cavalry were cut off behind enemy lines. Some among them were certainly captured. The Tartars will have no difficulty extracting from them that there is a relief force from Anqing at Weijiawan. With their large follow-up train of carriages and camp followers, they will certainly want to annihilate any government troops they encounter on the road — especially since we are blocking their path. Tomorrow they will surely send scouts to Weijiawan and pursue us all the way. By their march schedule, they can reach Thirty-Li Post by noon the day after tomorrow at the latest."

Pang Yu marked the map. "Calculate the distance. Chujiaquan is roughly one hundred forty li from here. If the Tartar cavalry pursues at full speed, they can reach Boping tomorrow evening. If we march sixty li as originally planned, we will reach Thirty-Li Post tomorrow, with the Tartars sixty li from us. By the afternoon of the day after, the Tartars will reach Thirty-Li Post, and we will have reached Tongcheng Pu. Before nightfall, the Tartar vanguard will catch up to us. At that point we will still not have passed Dong'e and will still be within the Tartar front's encirclement. The Tartars could mobilize two or three columns — that is, two or three banners — and surround us near Dong'e."

"Answering Your Excellency, precisely so."

"Where has our advance cavalry reached?"

"A report came back before nightfall. They have passed Thirty-Li Post and encountered no Tartars or other government troops en route. After receiving word of unidentified cavalry appearing at Dai Family Bay, this subordinate, per Your Excellency's orders, sent a herald ordering that unit to reach Tongcheng Post tonight to establish a defense and cut off passage on the post road, to guard against Tartars appearing from the south. We estimate no reply until tomorrow morning."

Pang Yu was silent for a moment. They had previously estimated the Tartar offensive boundary would be along the Boping–Chiping–Changqing line. As long as they went south from Chiping, they would leave the Tartar offensive front. Once the main Tartar vanguard army passed, they could strike their vulnerable marching columns. Therefore the Anqing Battalion's stationing position needed to avoid the sharp edge but not be too far away.

But the Tartar offensive was far faster than they had estimated, and its width might also be greater. The Guantao column would certainly point toward Dongchang Prefecture. From Dongchang Prefecture, two roads led east: bypassing north of the city led to Chiping; bypassing south of the city led to Dong'e.

Beyond the scout cavalry's reconnaissance range, there might also be a Daming Prefecture direction — this Qing army column would circle around even farther.

At this moment, the Qing army already knew there was a Ming army force in their path of advance, but they could not yet confirm the Anqing Battalion's position.

If the Qing army continued advancing tomorrow, they would roughly determine the Anqing Battalion's location before nightfall.

Judging from the account Pang Yu had received of the battle at Jiazhuang, the Qing army's mobility and degree of organization were both very high. Once they confirmed the Anqing Battalion's position, they were capable of rapidly encircling it.

If they made a forced march tomorrow, the infantry could cover ninety li in a single day and reach Tongcheng Post, thus leaving the Chiping road. But this would greatly exhaust the Personal Guard Division's strength, which would be detrimental to subsequent combat, and it was unsustainable.

At that moment, Yan Guan entered the tent. He first surveyed the atmosphere inside, then walked to Pang Yu's side and said, "An urgent report has arrived from Yang Sili in Anqing. Circuit Intendant Shi received a directive from the Ministry of War to draw troops for garrison duty at Xuzhou, strictly guarding against the Tartars continuing their southern rampage. Circuit Intendant Shi immediately ordered the New Courage Battalion and the Army Courage Battalion to reinforce Xuzhou. Zhou Er consulted Yang Sili, then declined to comply, citing insufficient provisions. Circuit Intendant Shi then redirected the order, dispatching the Wusong Camp to Xuzhou. It is unknown whether he will mobilize other Military Camp units."

"Why is he transferring so many troops?" Pang Yu took the urgent report, scanned it hastily, then passed it to Clerk Tu beside him.

Clerk Tu frowned. "If Circuit Intendant Shi is going to Xuzhou, he only needs to bring Chen Yuwang. Xu Strengthening's handful of troops can only fight roving bandits — they are perfect for staying in Anqing to defend the city. Bringing them to Xuzhou just wastes provisions, and it empties Anqing's defenses. To the north, roving bandits still hold out in the Yinghuo Mountains. Tongcheng's local militia can defend the city, but Qianshan, Taihu, and Susong have no city walls to defend. The local militia there have just completed basic training, and their armor and weapons are not yet fully equipped — they cannot hold."

Chen Rulie suddenly slammed the table. "What the hell kind of war is the Ministry of War fighting! Only now transferring troops from Nanzhili — by the time they reach Xuzhou it'll be February or March, and the Tartars will have long since left the border! Even if the Tartars intended to go south to Xuzhou, they'd be past Xuzhou in a month! Do they think a directive issued today means troops are in position tomorrow!"

Seeing Chen Rulie's intense emotion, Wu Dacai quickly stood up. Table-slamming quarrels were common in army meetings, and officers cursing each other's mothers was nothing unusual — including when Pang Yu was present. But as Clerk Officer, he had a duty to maintain basic decorum.

Fortunately, Chen Rulie did not continue, and Pang Yu showed no sign of displeasure. Wu Dacai observed for a moment, then sat back down.

Pang Yu had no other options either. Most of the troops under his command had been committed to Huguang. Huguang was a crucial link in the Great River commercial plan — without Huguang, everything became a rootless tree. According to the dispatch reports received earlier, the troops led by Yao Dongshan had all left Anqing and were moving in batches toward the Han River line. These troops could not be recalled to Anqing.

Previously, Anqing had still had some reinforcement and suppression troops, such as Xu Strengthening's Wusong Camp. These troops were no good at field battles but could defend a city. Zhou Er's unit could serve as a mobile force. Now that they had all been drawn away, Zhou Er's troops were not even enough to defend the county seats.

Pang Yu did not entirely blame Shi Kefa. If the Ministry of War ordered him to Xuzhou, he still had to bring some troops that would obey orders. But as a result, Anqing's defenses were full of holes everywhere — and Anqing was Pang Yu's foundation, now also in danger.

Yan Guan leaned close to Pang Yu's ear and said quietly, "The men accompanying the Ministry of War dispatch officer have found out: Circuit Intendant Shi and Military Commander Zhu both reported our battalion's rally to the king action to the Ministry of War. The Ministry's directive orders our battalion and Shandong Regional Commander Ni Chong to reinforce Jinan."

Pang Yu turned to Yan Guan in astonishment. The Ministry of War was now transferring troops to Jinan, which meant the Ministry had previously judged that the Tartars might turn toward Shandong. Judging from the dispatch sent to Xuzhou, the Ministry had previously had no idea of the Cavalry Camp's location at all — yet they were transferring troops from Xuzhou to Jinan rather than from the closer Linqing. Clearly, the Ministry wanted both to ensure Linqing was absolutely secure and to guard against an attack on Jinan.

Like the order transferring Shi Kefa to reinforce Xuzhou, this Ministry of War order had no timeliness whatsoever. By the time the transfer was in position, the Tartars would most likely have long since returned north, or would have already attacked Jinan.

From this, one could infer that the scheduling of all rally to the king forces still relied on the Ministry of War. The Shandong region had no frontline command, which meant the Ministry's orders were always lagging. There was an enormous gap in command agility between the two sides.

In the Anqing Battalion's earlier analysis, they had estimated that the Qing army might advance eastward to Jinan, looting the wealthy regions along the way, then use Jinan's good roads to return north — but they had not anticipated that the Qing army would attack Jinan itself.

Now this military order from the Ministry of War indicated that Jinan's defenses were empty. The Tartars could send spies — they clearly placed great importance on intelligence work. If they obtained intelligence that Jinan was undefended, they might genuinely attack this provincial capital. There was a possibility that Jinan could fall.

And the Ministry of War had already issued the directive. Even if one could make excuses about receiving the order late, if Jinan truly fell, the Ministry's first thought would be to shift its own responsibility, then find someone to bear the blame. Pang Yu and Ni Chong, the two military officers, would probably be the first they thought of. At that point, the ten heads Pang Yu held would likely not be enough to offset the consequences.

Pang Yu had two choices: one, rush to Jinan now; two, obtain a new batch of head merit, so he could survive this campaign safely. Otherwise, his rally to the king journey would turn into a disaster.

Yan Guan was extremely cautious. He had reported this information to Pang Yu alone and told no one else. Pang Yu gestured for Yan Guan to leave. The others were still calculating distances. Pang Yu stood up. Seeing Pang Yu approach, Clerk Tu immediately vacated a spot.

Pang Yu silently studied the map. On the map before him, five red arrows starting from Wei County spread out like bared fangs and claws, advancing eastward. The five-pointed star marking the Anqing Cavalry Camp lay directly ahead of the arrows, with no friendly force markers anywhere around it.

"If we head toward Jinan Prefecture, can we make it in time?"

Clerk Tu glanced briefly and said, "Over two hundred li. Four days' march for infantry. The Tartars will certainly catch us within three days. Even if we reach the walls of Jinan, this humble one fears we would not be able to enter the city."

No one in the tent spoke. They did not understand why Pang Yu had suddenly raised a new proposal.

After what seemed a long time, Pang Yu said calmly, "Notify the scout cavalry to pull back. Chen Rulie will personally lead the First Cavalry Division and the scout cavalry to cover the column's rear. The Central Army will proceed to Thirty-Li Post according to the original plan."

On the afternoon of the eighteenth day of the twelfth month, the Anqing army outside Boping County had already withdrawn, leaving behind an empty camp.

Qin Jiuze stood holding his horse's reins outside the city's West Gate. Beside him was the Second Division's Scout Cavalry Banner. Twenty-two of the original personnel remained, plus Qin Jiuze and the five newly joined Xuan-Da cavalrymen — twenty-seven men in total, the largest number among all the scout cavalry units.

In the western sky, several columns of black smoke showed that the Qing army was already close.

Yang Shisan came to his side and said, "The Tartars are even faster than we thought. They'll definitely reach Boping by evening."

Qin Jiuze did not reply. Over on the other side, Man Da'er said, "Uncle Qin, how many Tartars do you reckon are chasing us this time?"

Qin Jiuze glanced back. The Banner Commander was standing atop the wall, peering west with his precious telescope.

Man Da'er looked around, then said quietly, "Uncle Qin, these Anqing troops aren't even as good as our Xuan-Da men. Haven't fought a single battle and they've already run several hundred li."

"Over two hundred li." Qin Jiuze indifferently took a bite of his flatbread and turned to glance at Yang Guangdi. The kid was still polishing that gun of his. These past two days, chased by the Tartars, they had fled the whole way and lost quite a few men.

Their banner team had withdrawn past Youfang Ferry before nightfall the previous day and only reached Dai Family Bay late at night. Another man had gone missing en route and had not returned by dawn. This was common during night marches, especially when things were rushed, but it further battered morale. In the morning they had risen and withdrawn all the way to Boping. Yang Guangdi had grown quieter too.

Because the Rangers were bringing up the rear, Qin Jiuze and the others from Xuanfu had still not seen the Anqing Battalion's Central Army. Last night at Weijiawan they did see the Cavalry First Division, and the men were somewhat surprised by the Southern Army's cavalry numbers.

It was just that these cavalry were clearly inferior to the Rangers. Man Da'er and the others figured it was probably the difference between Border Army cavalry and Household Retainers, and they guessed there was no essential difference from the Xuan-Da military towns, since they all ran just the same when they ran into Tartars.

Yang Shisan raised his eyes and looked at the smoke column. The Rangers around them were somewhat nervous, but the few Night-Not-Returning men from Xuanfu were all fairly relaxed. Judging by the smoke column's position, it was still at least ten li away. He rubbed his eyes and said, "That Deputy Regional Commander Pang is strange too, different from all our Xuan-Da General Officers. He doesn't keep these Household Retainers at his side, but sends them all the way out to Hexi. This one pursuit cost him several tens of Household Retainers."

Man Da'er also shook his head. "He fears death, that's all. He sends his Household Retainers ahead to grab some heads. Last time at Wei County he took a few heads, and when he got back he mixed in a few dozen more — Military Merits secured, just like that Wang Pu."

Having said this, he turned again to Qin Jiuze, lowering his voice even further this time. "Qin Shu, you took three Tartar heads. That's at least one hundred fifty taels. Gu Xianyi at least gave you ten taels. Has this Vice General Pang given you anything? What use is it if all he does is make you promises?"

Qin Jiuze still said nothing. Yang Shisan leaned in and said, "These Southern Troops can't be relied on. Should we go find Li Fuzhen instead?"

Qin Jiuze slowly felt inside his clothes and took out a silver ingot. The two men immediately swallowed a mouthful of saliva. Man Da'er then spoke again, "That's not one hundred fifty taels either."

"There is no one hundred fifty taels." Qin Jiuze put the silver ingot away without another word.

Yang Shisan coughed once. "Old Qin, on what grounds does he refuse to pay the head bounty? I feel these Southern Troops are unreliable. If we follow them into battle, we might well throw our lives away for nothing. Besides, the further east they go, the farther they get from Shanxi. How long are we going to keep running like this?"

"Unreliable is still better than Li Zhongzhen." Qin Jiuze glanced over at Yang Guangdi. "If you want to find Li Zhongzhen, go. I'm not going."

Yang Shisan was about to say more when a whistle sounded. The men turned their heads to look — the Banner Commander was already striding over.

The Rangers gathered around one after another. Once everyone was assembled, the Banner Commander said loudly, "Orders received from the Centurion: the Tartars are still fifteen li from here. Five hundred cavalry sighted as Vanguard, roughly one hundred Bright Armor Tartars among them. During the daytime, the First Division will bring up the rear. We continue withdrawing east for thirty li. Tonight we encamp at Chiping County. If the Tartars do not pursue as far as Chiping, we do not initiate engagement. Is that understood by all?"

The Qing army was advancing quickly, and the atmosphere grew tense again. The cavalrymen were all dejected. Man Da'er's face was full of displeasure. His lips moved, and he shot another meaningful glance at Qin Jiuze.

Qin Jiuze paid him no attention whatsoever. He mounted his horse directly and, following behind Yang Guangdi, spurred his horse and went east.