Chapter 293: Shi Kefa's Worries

In the Governor-General's office for the seven provinces at Qufu, the atmosphere at this moment was one of bustling heat and noisy confusion. The aides and retainers who in days past had waved paper fans while devising strategies were now all in a state of high excitement — either gathered around maps arguing until their faces flushed, or clustered in groups of three or five, talking loudly and at length.

The situation on the map could be called a mix of worry and joy. The worry was not that the eastern barbarians occupying Beijing were somehow invincible, but rather that since the counteroffensive from Huaiqing, the roving bandit army had marched from victory to victory and was now bearing down on Zhending Prefecture — and on the map, Zhending Prefecture was the logistical lifeline for the eastern barbarian army that had thrust deep into Shanxi along the Jingxing Road on the southern front!

According to intelligence forwarded from the Shandong Regional Commander's office at Dengzhou, the eastern barbarian forces now deep in Shanxi included the elite Two White Banners of Dorgon and Dodo, the elite Plain Red Banner led by Mandahai, the elite Plain Blue Banner of Hooge, a portion of the Plain Yellow Banner led by Oboi, plus Wu Sangui's Guanning Army, and the Han troops led by Kong Youde, Geng Zhongming, Shang Kexi, and Shen Zhixiang. Nearly all their finest troops had been committed!

Of these, the Two White Banners, the Plain Red Banner, and the forces of Wu Sangui and Kong Youde — nearly eighty thousand troops in all — depended entirely on the Jingxing Road for supplies. And once the roving bandits' flanking force took Zhending, the Jingxing Road would be cut. It had to be said: the bandits' great flanking maneuver this time had been brilliantly executed!

That the roving bandits had fought so brilliantly meant their strength remained intact, and it was very possible that after dealing the eastern barbarians a heavy blow, they would seize Beijing once more!

That would be no small matter! To a certain degree, the gain or loss of Beijing meant the gain or loss of the north. And since ancient times in China, the north had conquered the south more often than the south had conquered the north — the only true success had been the Grand Progenitor, the Exalted Emperor of this dynasty.

Yet from the Grand Progenitor establishing the capital at Jinling to the fall of the Jianwen Emperor, barely thirty-odd years had passed, and thereafter the imperial aura of the realm had returned to the north once more.

If the roving bandits could seize Beijing again, then the imperial aura of China might well belong to Li Zicheng.

As a loyal subject of the Great Ming dynasty, how could Shi Kefa not worry over where the imperial aura of the realm would settle?

As for the joy, there was certainly plenty of that as well. These days it was not only the roving bandits marching from victory to victory — the Ming side was likewise enjoying a most gratifying situation!

Liu Zeqing, the Regional Commander guarding Yanzhou, had crossed the Daqing River northward from Dongping Prefecture at the end of the tenth month and, without shedding a drop of blood, had pacified the Eastern Depot Prefecture. He had also joined forces with Li Chengdong, dispatched by Gao Jie, and Sun Degong, dispatched by Huang Degong — three columns in all — to seize Dezhou, the key town in the northern part of Jinan Prefecture. Afterward they had thrust into Hejian Prefecture in Northern Zhili, taking Jingzhou, Dongguang, Nanpi, Cangzhou, and other prefectures and counties in rapid succession. Reports of victory arrived one after another; their advance was irresistible!

At the same time, Liu Liangzuo, Regional Commander of Henan, and Xu Dingguo, Regional Commander of Guide, had struck out from Caozhou (under Yanzhou Prefecture) and Yifeng (under Kaifeng Prefecture), attacking into Daming Prefecture. After several minor skirmishes with the roving bandits, they had occupied most of Daming Prefecture and had also pushed into Guangping Prefecture.

Their advance along the way had likewise been irresistible, and they had also won the support of the gentry and local strongmen of Daming and Guangping Prefectures!

The situation for the two northern-expedition armies was now very favorable, and Shi Kefa knew he still held two trump cards in hand — Wu Sangui, who was waiting for the right moment to defect, and the two armies of Li Ruolian and Li Shiyuan (Regional Commander of Qingzhou), who could advance on Tianjin by sea at any time.

"Li Ruolian is a trusted man of the Crown Prince and will surely not fail His Highness's great kindness. The Dengzhou-Laizhou route needs no worry. Now the rise or fall of the state rests entirely on the Earl Who Pacifies the West."

Shi Kefa stood before the map hanging in his study, brows slightly furrowed, murmuring to himself. From behind him came the sound of hurried footsteps, and then the voices of Shi Kecheng and Shi Dewei.

"Elder Brother, an order from the Grand Marshal's Office of the Army-Pacifying Command: His Highness the Thousand Years wants us to speed up the building of the city walls and to store enough grain, flour, and salt to feed fifty thousand men for two years."

"My lord, news from the Chief Minister's Office of the Prince of Lu's household: Li Ruolian, Regional Commander of Shandong, has sent a formal communication to the Prince of Lu's household, urging it to establish a separate residence at Mount Taihe as soon as possible and to transfer half of the household's silver reserves and at least fifty thousand shi of rice and wheat to the Mount Taihe residence."

"What?" Shi Kefa was taken aback. "At a time like this, why make such plans?"

"My lord," Shi Dewei said, "perhaps His Highness the Thousand Years is making preparations for both eventualities — one hand reaching for advance, the other for retreat."

Shi Kecheng said, "Right now the fate of the realm rests on the Earl Who Pacifies the West. If the Earl does not act, the northern expedition may be hard to sustain."

"How could the Earl Who Pacifies the West not act?" Shi Kefa shook his head repeatedly. "He has already been promised a princely title in the north. If he does not defect now, what is he waiting for? Does he intend to follow the Tartars to the bitter end?"

"Perhaps His Highness the Thousand Years worries that the Earl Who Pacifies the West cannot defeat the Tartars?" Shi Kecheng said.

Shi Kefa shook his head. "Even if the Earl Who Pacifies the West cannot defeat the Tartars, there are still the roving bandits! The bandits have deployed eighty thousand veteran cavalry around Zhending Prefecture, and their momentum is at its peak. If the Earl turns his coat now, the Tartars will be caught between two fronts — how could they possibly not be defeated?

And once the Tartars are defeated, they will have to withdraw from Beijing. Then we will have to contend with the roving bandits for the realm again! If His Highness the Thousand Years does not show the resolve to fight the roving bandits to the death, I fear the momentum of the rebel Li Zicheng will surge once more. If Beijing should fall to the roving bandits, the Great Ming dynasty will be in grave danger!"

So it turned out that what Shi Kefa feared most was not the Tartars marching into Shandong to dig up Confucius's grave, but rather Li Zicheng returning to Beijing.

In his view, as soon as Wu Sangui defected, the Tartars were certain to suffer catastrophic losses — Wu Sangui had forty thousand elite troops, the roving bandits had eighty thousand elite troops around Zhending Prefecture, Datong Prefecture still held Prince Dai's thirty thousand elite troops, the Ming armies on the southern front numbered no fewer than a hundred thousand elite troops, and around Taiyuan Prefecture Li Zicheng still had at least tens of thousands of elite troops.

All the various forces added together came to at least three hundred thousand! How could they possibly fail to defeat the Tartars' paltry tens of thousands?

And looking at the map, the Tartars had clearly already fallen into dire straits. Even before Wu Sangui defected, the Tartars were in danger; once he did defect, the Tartars would have no choice but to slink back to their old home beyond the passes!

So Li Zicheng would very soon once again become Zhu Cilang's most dangerous enemy!

Shi Kefa thought for a moment, then said to his brother Shi Kecheng: "Red Leopard, go to Nanjing yourself and explain the situation in the north to His Highness the Thousand Years in person. If the rebel Li Zicheng enters Beijing again, the court had best make a show of advancing north as well — at the very least it should move to the Central Capital and not linger long in Nanjing, lest it give the impression of settling for a corner of Jiangnan."

Lin Yihu, a Chiliarch of the Communications Office of the Northern Provost Marshal's Office of the Embroidered Uniform Guard, was now dressed in the manner of an old Shanxi mine owner and had even changed his name to Jia Busi. Accompanied by several sons of Yangzhou salt merchants, he swaggered into Wu Sangui's camp beneath the walls of Taiyuan, escorting several dozen carts of wheat.

If Shi Kefa could have seen how bustling the Qing army camp beneath Taiyuan now was, he would probably have believed Zhu Cilang's judgment — the Tartars were not so easily defeated, so they had better hurry up and turn Qufu into an impregnable fortress!

Because the Tartars and traitors stalled beneath the walls of Taiyuan now had no need at all for grain and fodder transported along the Jingxing Road. Their logistics had already been entirely taken over by the great Shanxi merchant houses of Jiexiu, Taigu, Qi County, Xugou, Pingyao, and other places.

The Shanxi merchants had always been divided into two great groups: salt merchants and traveling merchants. The salt merchants fed off the Ming court. The traveling merchants, on the other hand, had always worked beyond the passes, living off the smuggling trade. Before the Manchus' Great Qing state rose to power, they had mainly traded with the Mongols. After the rise of the Qing, selling military supplies to the Qing and gathering intelligence for the Qing army had become a shortcut to wealth for a portion of the Shanxi merchants. Among them, eight families — Wang Dengku, Jin Liangyu, Fan Yongdou, Wang Dayu, Liang Jiabin, Tian Shenglan, Zhai Tang, and Huang Yongfa — had contributed the most to the Qing, and these eight later became the Eight Great Imperial Merchants of the early Qing!

When Li Zicheng had marched into Beijing in grand style, these eight great Shanxi merchants had all slipped away from the Xuanfu-Datong region where they mainly operated and returned to their home districts to lie low — Li Zicheng had risen too quickly, and the construction of local governance had lagged severely behind, so naturally he could not catch these local power-brokers who held great influence in Jiexiu, Taigu, Pingyao, and the like.

But Li Zicheng's policy of "exempting grain taxes and equalizing land" had made all the Shanxi merchants, including the "Eight Great," grind their teeth in fury — this was even more hateful than confiscating their land! Because Li Zicheng's approach suppressed the old exploiting class while at the same time failing to create a new exploiting class.

And the Shanxi merchants served the exploiting class. If you exempted grain taxes and equalized land, who still needed the Shanxi merchants? The small farmers paid no rent and delivered no grain; they planted and ate their own produce, and their womenfolk wove a bit of homespun cloth — truly self-sufficient. And the upper and middle ranks of the Shun court had little money to squander, so they likewise had little need for the services of merchants.

So with Li Zicheng around, there would be no more Shanxi merchants!

(End of Chapter)