Chapter 580: The Northern Expedition — Of Course the Sooner the Better! (Monthly Tickets,)

Dorgon, who had now been promoted to the Qing Imperial Ama, was doing everything in his power to delay the start of an all-out war between north and south, so as to advance his three great plans: "pacifying the northwest, reorganizing the army into nine banners, and developing the lands beyond the passes."

Meanwhile, in Nanjing, capital of the Hongxing Emperor, a group of warlords who had come to the capital for an audience were doing their utmost to urge His Majesty Hongxing to launch the northern expedition — and the sooner the better!

For in their view, time was not on the Ming's side.

"Your Majesty, in the art of war there has never been such a thing as absolute certainty. And when advancing from south to north, there have rarely been those who achieved complete success. Only our dynasty's founding emperor, with his heroic talent and grand strategy, was able to accomplish the great task. But the world today is very different from the last years of the Yuan dynasty. The eastern barbarians occupying the Central Plains and the Yan-Yun region are not the same as the Mongols of the late Yuan. The Mongols of the late Yuan were already rotten to the core, internally fragmented, and locked in ceaseless strife — they were dry bones in a tomb, sooner or later to be swept away by the Exalted Founding Emperor. But the eastern barbarians of today are a newly risen, newly founded state. From Nurhaci down to Fulin is only three generations, and the princes who truly hold power — Dorgon, Dodo, and the rest — are only the second generation. They are at the very moment of vigorous ascent!"

"If Your Majesty, seeking absolute certainty for the northern expedition, first sets the interior in order, then drills and refines the troops, and does not begrudge spending three to five years on it — does Your Majesty not fear that the eastern barbarians will likewise use those three to five years to consolidate and develop, and grow even more vigorous?"

"Therefore, in this subject's humble view, if the northern expedition is to succeed, it must be undertaken as quickly as possible — seizing the initiative before the eastern barbarians flourish, spending three to five years with every effort bent to the task, and achieving success in one stroke. If these three to five years are missed, I fear our southern court will only sink deeper into delay, while the north grows ever more prosperous."

The man who spoke the above words was none other than Shi Kefa, Governor-General of the Seven Provinces' Military Command!

Because he had performed well at the time of Zhu Cilang's enthronement, Shi Kefa could now barely be counted as a loyal subject.

The reason he was only barely counted as a loyal subject was that the letter in Gao Yushun's own hand, which Ji Kun had brought back from Xuzhou, had already been confirmed as genuine!

The letter was indeed written by Gao Yushun, but whether its contents were true was another matter! In any case, Ji Kun could not figure it out — the fellow had first been a pettifogger and later a cruel official, and could be said to have seen countless people, honing a pair of fiery eyes for reading men. Yet even his fiery eyes could not tell whether those two, Shi Kefa and Huang Degong, truly harbored thoughts of rebellion.

And Zhu Chunjie, Guard Commander of the Embroidered Uniform Guard, was equally unable to make it out. Although he had planted agents beside Shi Kefa and Gao Jie, he had never received any report of the two men having contact with Gao Yushun or Zhu Cizhao.

But at the same time, Wu Sanfu, who had led troops to capture Xiangyang, sent a secret memorial reporting that Zhu Cizhao, Gao Yushun, and Noble Consort Yuan had been secretly released as early as the end of the eighteenth year of Chongzhen, and had been personally escorted out of Xiangyang Prefecture by the Grand Strategist Song Xiance. Moreover, this matter was known to quite a number of officers and men among the Shun troops who had surrendered or been captured, so it should be credible.

Furthermore, Wu Sanfu did not know that Ji Kun and the Embroidered Uniform Guard were investigating Shi Kefa and Huang Degong, nor did he know of Gao Jie's secret memorial denouncing Shi Kefa and Huang Degong.

Wu Sanfu had no dealings with Shi Kefa, Huang Degong, or Gao Jie, and had no contact with any of the three, so it was impossible for him to fabricate a charge to frame Shi Kefa and Huang Degong. And Wu Sanfu was a man who had never once reported anyone behind their back in front of Zhu Cilang.

So this case was truly becoming bewildering!

"Minister Shi," said Zhu Cilang, seated behind a desk in the eastern warm chamber of the Fengtian Hall, his face expressionless as he studied Shi Kefa, "you believe the eastern barbarians will grow ever more prosperous?"

Shi Kefa was seated on a chair in a "private audience" with Zhu Cilang. Hearing Zhu Cilang's question, he nodded and said: "Your Majesty, this subject spent a long time in Qufu, and every day I paid close attention to changes in the situation in the north. From my observations, ever since the eastern barbarians established the two Green Banners and began implementing the method of granting land by headcount in Shandong, Northern Zhili, Shanxi, Henan, and other places, the situation has grown steadily more stable. The common people no longer flee, agriculture is gradually recovering, and the various righteous armies are finding it harder with each passing day. If the northern expedition begins within the year, there should still be a considerable chance of victory. If it is delayed for three to five years, I fear there will be little chance left."

Zhu Cilang knew that what Shi Kefa had observed was the scene of a newly restarted, rising dynasty growing daily more prosperous — few people, much land, profit drawn from two channels (farming and war), and all the complex relations of production and society swept clean away, everything made very simple.

For a northern scholar like Shi Kefa, this simple and newly rising society was perhaps more ideal than the chaotic budding capitalism down here in the Southern Ming, was it not?

"Minister Shi," said Zhu Cilang, "We too wish to settle the Central Plains at an early date and recover the old capital. But a northern expedition would require at the very least three to four hundred thousand troops, over a million civilian laborers, and several years of effort. The grain consumed in a single year of campaigning would likely be counted in the tens of millions of bushels, would it not? And if one considers that there are still many people in the north who will need relief, the grain the court must prepare becomes even greater."

The grain that an army of three to four hundred thousand would itself consume in a year would be no less than two million bushels (the exact figure also depending on the number of draft animals with the army). If there were no water routes for transporting grain, and one had to rely on land routes or partly on land routes, then the grain and fodder needed for a year would have to be multiplied by five on top of the two million bushels — and even that might not fully guarantee supply.

And before grain production in Huguang had fully recovered, supplying this amount of grain would be rather difficult — not because the court could not collect that much grain, but because it was very hard to set aside that much as surplus.

"Your Majesty," said Shi Kefa, "the northern expedition strategy set forth in the memorial this subject has submitted does not require several hundred thousand troops, a million civilian laborers, or several years of effort. It requires only a single brigade to cross the sea and seize the mighty pass of Shanhai, drawing the eastern barbarians' elite troops and brave warriors there to do battle. This subject and the others can then lead our finest troops westward, advancing along the Yellow River, striking straight for the Central Plains, then entering Shanxi and joining forces with the Prince of Dai. At that point, Your Majesty need only offer Wu Sangui a dukedom to entice him back to court. How then would the eastern barbarians dare to remain entrenched in Yanjing? How could the northern expedition fail?"

Shi Kefa's plan sounded rather good, and had a possibility of success — provided that the landing in western Liaoning and the capture of Shanhai Pass could draw Dorgon's main force there. Then the warlords of Shandong and Huaibei, together with the Prince of Tang in Nanyang, could sweep through Henan together. Once Henan was in hand, the situation in Shanxi would certainly change dramatically, and the anti-Qing righteous armies would surely surge in strength. And if Wu Sangui, holed up in Gansu and Shaanxi, seized the moment to rise against the Qing — what worry would there be that the great task could not be accomplished?

"Minister Shi," asked Zhu Cilang, "if you march west from Shandong and Huaibei, how much grain will you need? How many civilian laborers? How many draft animals? How much can you raise on your own?"

"Your Majesty," said Shi Kefa, "Shandong and Huaibei had poor harvests last year. The various armies are all subsisting on sweet potatoes, and many of the common people have fled. It is indeed very difficult. This year's spring planting has gone badly — the weather is dry with little rain — and it is estimated that there will again be a poor harvest. By the time the old grain is gone and the new is not yet in, the government offices will need to distribute grain for famine relief. So the various armies will likely not be able to raise much grain or fodder. However, we can still raise some civilian laborers and draft animals."

Zhu Cilang lowered his head and thought for a moment, then said: "This year there is the rice from the Hubei land redemption, and perhaps grain-tax revenue from the maritime customs will also arrive. By winter, the Military Farms Office should have a surplus. Before winter, no grain can be scraped together. So Minister Shi may return first and make preparations. Come back in the autumn, and We will discuss the northern expedition with you then."

Although Shi Kefa's historical record was not very reliable, Zhu Cilang felt that the plan he proposed had a certain feasibility. At the very least, landing in western Liaoning and seizing Shanhai Pass posed no problem!

Zhang Huangyan had already been operating on Juehua Island for nearly two years, and had built a walled city on the island capable of garrisoning troops, constructed a large number of storehouses, and also built docks that could accommodate a great many ships.

The army and its grain and fodder could perfectly well sail to the island with the favorable winds by late summer this year, and after the sea froze over in winter, march straight over to the Ningyuan garrison city. No matter how strong the Ningyuan garrison city was, it was no bastion fort, and could not withstand the sustained bombardment of twelve-pounder Hongyi cannons.

Once Ningyuan fell, could Dorgon refrain from sending troops a thousand li to its rescue?

Even if no field battle were fought, and Ningyuan were not held, but the army simply withdrew to Juehua Island, there would be no loss!

(End of Chapter)