Chapter 729: Japan Is Certain to Lose?

Regarding the imminent Battle of Sakhalin Island, the Zhu Emperor's heart was deeply conflicted.

Right now the Qing state was his enemy, and the Qing were fighting for Sakhalin Island precisely to obtain furs to trade for Spanish muskets and cannon!

The more foreign muskets and cannon the Qing obtained, the harder it would naturally become for the Southern Ming's future Northern Expedition to unify the realm.

Zhu Cilang was of course determined to launch the Northern Expedition!

He was not willing to settle for being a ruler content with a corner of the realm, but the two previous Northern Expeditions had not been very successful, which made Zhu Cilang realize that defeating the Manchu Qing would not be easy.

Of course, the Ming army's combat strength had improved immeasurably since before Zhu Cilang took power, and the line-battle capability of its elite Model Army should already surpass that of the Eight Banners troops!

However, the problem of poor mobile-warfare capability encountered in the last Northern Expedition still had no good solution for the time being — the poor mobile-warfare capability was not because the Model Army marched too slowly, but because its light cavalry was so far inferior to the enemy's that it could not locate the Qing main force on the move in time.

Thus it was easy to fall into the dilemma where concentrating forces meant no battle could be sought, while dispersing forces meant the weaker units were easily broken.

Moreover, the Great Ming's grain supply was perpetually tight; unless a determined solution was found, it would be hard to sustain a larger and longer Northern Expedition.

In Zhu Cilang's view, Yuan Chonghuan's old boast of pacifying Liaodong in five years had been empty talk, and the idea that the present Ming army could sweep the Central Plains within a few months was, in the Zhu Emperor's eyes, even more fanciful!

Furthermore, the strategists and staff officers of the Marshal's Office had racked their brains and still could not see how to clear the Central Plains in a few months or even a year.

The plan they had drawn up for Zhu Cilang was to train and equip a sufficiently large army — the field Model Army should reach 250,000 to 300,000 men! That would allow the formation of three powerful field armies to launch offensives from Liaodong, Shandong, and Henan in three directions!

And the Great Ming would also need to prepare at least three years' rations for the 250,000 to 300,000 field troops, plus twice that number of civilian laborers and second-line garrison forces — the war might not last that long, but the preparations absolutely had to be made!

In addition, the Great Ming still had to complete the Yellow River, Huai River, and Grand Canal control works! In particular, the dikes and sluice gates of the Hongze Lake flood-detention area had to be made absolutely secure.

Only then could the safety of the grain-producing region south of the Huai be guaranteed if the Qing army, driven to desperate measures, breached the Yellow River dikes in Guide Prefecture and diverted the Yellow River into the Huai — historically, the Southern Song's Duanping Entering Luoyang campaign had failed disastrously precisely because the Mongols cut the Yellow River dikes and diverted the Yellow River into the Huai, flooding the Lianghuai region so that army provisions could not be transported.

Although Dorgon had not ordered the Yellow River dikes breached in the last Northern Expedition, no one could guarantee he would not do so next time.

After all, the decisive phase of the last Northern Expedition had been in winter, when the Yellow River was frozen solid into ice.

So the Zhu Emperor planned to use the five-year Ming-Qing truce to complete the Yellow River, Huai River, and Grand Canal control works, to guarantee the absolute safety of the region south of the Huai; at the same time, to open military farms in Liaodong and Shandong, and to acquire large tracts of grain-producing land in Southeast Asia, so as to build up sufficient grain reserves.

So far, the Yellow River, Huai River, and Grand Canal works, the military farming in Liaodong and Shandong, and the expansion into Southeast Asia had all proceeded very smoothly!

Especially on the land of the former Champa kingdom, more than a million mu of previously cultivated land had already been contracted out — recultivating was far easier than breaking new ground! So the value of the two to three million mu of abandoned land the Great Ming had picked up in Champa was extremely high; these were all fine fields yielding three harvests a year. With oxen and iron farm tools, and proper management, these two to three million mu could easily produce eight or nine million shi of rice a year.

If the output of the land under the Jin'ou Farming Office was added, after the five-year Ming-Qing truce expired, the Great Ming would be able to obtain more than 10 million shi of white rice from the Southern Seas every year!

And the Yellow River, Huai River, and Grand Canal control works would also "produce" (by reducing flood losses) several million shi of white rice each year.

These two items alone would greatly ease the grain shortage in the southeastern markets, and would be enough to let the Military Farming Office store up several million shi of rice to supply the Northern Expedition.

Moreover, the farmed land in Shandong and Liaodong could also provide large quantities of dried sweet potatoes, potato flour, and soybeans for feeding livestock.

With these things, an army of several hundred thousand on the Northern Expedition would not have to worry about going hungry!

The Great Qing ought to be doomed. Yet the Qing state also seemed to be struggling to survive, and had now actually come up with the scheme of "saving the nation through furs."

"There's no helping it," Wu Xiang began voicing his opinion again. "Your Majesty, in the battle for Sakhalin Island the eastern barbarians are certain to win, and Japan is certain to lose. We fought the wokou in Joseon back in the Wanli years, and from what was seen then, although the Japanese soldiers were brave, their military establishment was incomplete. If they had faced the Manchu troops of earlier days, they might have prevailed through bravery and firearms. But the Manchu troops of today have also been improving — they have not only imported muskets from Spain, but have also obtained English 3-pounder cannon, and they have large numbers of cavalry and horse teams, and their bravery is no less than the Japanese.

These Japanese soldiers have guns but no cannon, infantry but no cavalry — how could they possibly defeat the Manchu troops? Certain defeat! Certain defeat!"

It did seem to be the case! Weren't the Japanese samurai armies of today relying on nothing more than firearms and long spears? They were similar to the present Ming Model Army — individual valor might be a notch higher, but organization and training were certainly inferior; no one had heard of the Japanese being able to execute the Maurice formation.

Moreover, the Ming Model Army still had a measure of elite cavalry available, and was equipped with a sufficient number of 3-pounder cannon. The Japanese army, by contrast, had neither cavalry on any scale nor 3-pounder cannon.

What did they have to fight the Great Qing imperialist colonizers, who carried muskets on their backs, hauled cannon, and rode warhorses?

Wu Xiang shook his head: "There's nothing we can do about this matter, and there's no need to exert ourselves over it. Staying neutral as an outsider will do."

What? Neutral as an outsider? That sounded familiar!

Zhu Cilang glanced again at Zheng Zhilong. Zheng Zhilong was a "Japan expert" — surely he knew how formidable the Japanese samurai were? Could he think of any trick for the Japanese devils?

"There's no way," Zheng Zhilong unexpectedly agreed with Wu Xiang. "The eastern barbarians went to Sakhalin Island for furs — there is profit in it, and the Spanish are providing them with firearms, ships, and sailors. What are the Japanese fighting for? Sakhalin Island cannot grow rice at all; it cannot be granted to retainers as fief land. As for sable pelts, although they can be sold for money, the Tokugawa shogunate is not short of funds, and has no need to fight the eastern barbarians to the death over a few sable pelts.

And the Japanese navy is very weak, and their relations with Spain are extremely bad. Once Spain stands on the side of the eastern barbarians, they need only send a single warship — oh, not even one; they need only send a few experienced sailors to serve as helmsmen, directing Joseon sailors and Manchu gunners to operate the ten-thousand-shi great bird ships we produce, and with our 6-pounder cannon they could wipe out what little navy the Japanese shogunate has!"

Was this the Great Qing Pacific Fleet battling the Japanese Edo Combined Fleet? Surely it wouldn't break out in a jiawu year?

Zhu Cilang had a feeling of not knowing whether to laugh or cry.

But Zheng Zhilong was right — Japan had been closed off from the world for so many years that the older generation of sailors had died off or grown old, and could no longer put to sea.

And even in Japan's Warring States period, those Japanese pirate daimyo had been no match for the Spanish navy!

Moreover, the ten-thousand-shi great bird ships ordered by the Great Ming's Ministry of War were indeed extremely useful dual-purpose vessels for both military and civilian use. They could not stand against Western galleons with soft sails, but they were indeed suited to the Great Qing Pacific Fleet.

"Since Japan is certain to lose," Zhu Cilang thought for a moment, "we shall remain neutral as an outsider. Once Japan is defeated, we can see whether there is anything to exploit."

Another major matter settled — sixteen remained!

The Zhu Emperor glanced down at the stack of memorials laid out on the long table, picked up the one on top, and opened it. It was a memorial from the Ministry of War forwarding one from the Jin'ou Farming Office, stating that many Great Ming subjects stranded in the Ayutthaya dynasty of Siam had fled to Jin'ou City (formerly Saigon) to weep and appeal to the Farming Office, saying that their properties in Siam had been confiscated and they themselves expelled, and begging the Farming Office to seek justice for them. But the Farming Office had no fleet and could not reach Siam, so it had kicked the ball to the Ministry of War.

Zhu Cilang drew a breath and thought: it seems the time has come to deploy a detached fleet at the Jin'ou Cape!

(End of Chapter)