Chapter 770: Fight Among Yourselves—Leave Me Out of It

The five-year Ming-Qing pact was concluded in the first year of Hongxing, which means it will not expire until the sixth year of Hongxing. It is now the end of the fourth year of Hongxing, so there is still a year and a half before the pact lapses.

If the Zhu Emperor wanted the suddenness of war, he would of course have to strike before the pact expired. But the Qing side had never relaxed its vigilance, so the suddenness of war basically did not exist.

Since a surprise attack was impossible, then they should put every effort into thorough preparation!

Zhu Cilang's gaze slowly swept across the hall, taking in every expression. The civil officials were all eager and ready; it seemed there would be no great problem with money and grain. The military officers, however, all wore grave expressions. The northern expedition would not be easy to fight well!

"We have always kept Our word, and so We shall abide by the five-year pact. The day war begins shall be set in Hongxing—how many years will it take Us to complete the northern expedition?"

Choosing autumn for the northern expedition was only natural, because in spring and summer the Yellow River and Huai River run high, and if the Qing army were driven to desperation it might use water as a weapon. Although the great Yellow-Huai canal works had been completed, the Huai River dikes had been greatly reinforced, and the Hongze Lake flood-discharge zone had been thoroughly cleared, no one could guarantee there would be no great floods in the spring and summer of the sixth year of Hongxing. If a great Huai flood and a Yellow River breach in Guide Prefecture happened to coincide, the Huai would still overflow.

Moreover, the Ming still held much territory on the north bank of the Huai, and on that Huai-north territory it had established two military provinces, Huai-north and Xuhai, with Huang Degong and Gao Jie appointed as their military governors.

If the Huai-north and Xuhai provinces were flooded, the Ming court would likewise suffer severe losses.

And setting the war's start for next year was not solely for keeping faith, but also to stockpile enough supplies to sustain a long war.

So the date for opening hostilities could only be in the eighth or ninth month of the sixth year of Hongxing—that is, September or October 1653 by the Western calendar.

Zu Kefa, that "fourth subject," now held the post of Vice Commissioner for Military Affairs in the Marshal's Office—that is, something like a deputy chief of staff or deputy head of the operations department of the general staff.

The reason he, a "fourth subject," had been given such an important post was of course that he "knew the Qing." The current chief and deputy military strategists, Li Yan and Li Ruolian, were not considered members of the know-the-Qing faction, so Zhu Cilang had transferred Zu Kefa back from Wu Sangui's command and appointed him Vice Commissioner for Military Affairs.

"Your Majesty," Zu Kefa rose and bowed to Zhu Cilang with clasped hands, "this subject believes that how many years the northern expedition will take depends on whether Ajige and Dodo can coexist peacefully, or which of them prevails in the struggle between the two princes. If Ajige wins, then in three to five years the great work should be accomplished. If Dodo wins, then the northern expedition should first aim at the lands within the passes, and only then speak of pacifying Liaodong."

"If Ajige and Dodo can coexist in harmony, this subject suggests first seeking a Liao-Song standoff in the north, and only then planning further advances."

"Is Dodo really that formidable?" Zhu Cilang asked.

"Dodo is styled the Valiant Prince, the finest warrior in the Manchu army, and in the past two years he has also been directing military affairs against Russia and Japan, so he has not grown distant from the battlefield," Zu Kefa said. "Moreover, Dorgon always cultivated Dodo as his successor, which is why he let him command the nine banners beyond the passes and also let him consolidate the Barhu and Solon tribes. By now the lands beyond the passes have formed their own system, and even the population has recovered to the level before the Manchu entry into the passes."

The population growth beyond the passes was in fact quite natural. Before Nurhaci swept through Liaodong, the Han population of Liaodong had numbered in the millions; only later, through years of continuous warfare, slaughter, and the Manchu mass entry into the passes, did it become sparsely populated.

And although it was still the Little Ice Age, the land beyond the passes was not uncultivable. For although the climate beyond the passes was cold, precipitation was by no means scarce; the winter snows fell so heavily they seemed to join sky and earth. And the summer temperatures beyond the passes were still tolerable, enough to support the growth of relatively cold-resistant sorghum, spring wheat, and soybeans.

In addition, beyond the passes there were vast grasslands for grazing, enough to sustain many cattle and sheep.

Historically, it was only the early Qing policy of using the willow palisade to bar Han Chinese from leaving the passes that preserved for Tsarist Russia and later Japan a vast, rich, and sparsely populated land.

But now, with Qing rule within the passes facing a grave threat, they had no choice but to work hard at developing the lands beyond the passes as a fallback.

Although Han who did not shave their heads were still forbidden to leave the passes, the bannermen of the Plain Green and Bordered Green banners who had shaved—in fact Han Chinese—were pouring out through Shanhai Pass in great numbers.

Furthermore, the system Dorgon had instituted during his lifetime, by which the nine banners' amban-janggin each administered prefectures and subprefectures, also accelerated the flow of Han from within the passes to beyond them.

Because the amban-janggin offices administering the prefectures and subprefectures all had the authority to recruit booi bondservants and send them beyond the passes to farm banner lands—these people were booi in name, but in fact they were tenants who had shaved their heads. The land beyond the passes was fertile and rich in resources, and it was far from the front lines of the Ming-Qing war; taxes and corvée were both light. For poor households struggling to survive within the passes, it was of course an ideal destination.

As for where those poor households who could not survive came from—it was, sadly, helpless to say, because a considerable portion of them were northern refugees flowing back from Ming territory!

Although the Zhu Emperor did everything possible to find a way for these people to live, the numbers were simply too great, and the Southern Ming's national strength was limited. So after the Ming-Qing ceasefire, a situation of "northerners returning north" emerged, with two or three hundred thousand people flowing back every year.

To the Ming, these numbers were of course negligible—according to the household census conducted in the third year of Hongxing, excluding the inner and outer military provinces and vassal states, the population on land directly administered by the Ming court alone reached as high as one hundred twenty-seven million, and the annual increase was estimated at around one million!

But for the empty lands beyond the passes, it was an enormous replenishment of population!

According to intelligence the Embroidered Uniform Guard obtained from the "Jiale Market Firm," from the first year of Hongxing onward, the population of each gūsa of the nine banners beyond the passes had been growing rapidly, increasing by more than three hundred thousand every year. By the beginning of the fourth year of Hongxing, the population of the nine banners beyond the passes had already surpassed two million! And among them, the "Eight Banner Manchus" numbered only forty or fifty niru—a mere few tens of thousands of people. Even counting the newly joined Barhu and Solon, the total did not exceed one hundred thousand.

Zhu Cilang thought for a moment, then asked, "Is it still possible for Ajige and Dodo to get along?"

"That..." Zu Kefa thought it over. "Ajige and Dodo are after all brothers of the same father and mother; it is not impossible that they could tolerate each other. Besides, our Ming is still watching them like a tiger, so the possibility that the two brothers Ajige and Dodo will band together to survive also exists." He paused. "But no matter how they band together, it will not be the same as when Dorgon was alive."

Zhu Cilang said, "Then we must do everything we can to push Ajige and Dodo into war with each other! Kefa, do you have any clever plan?"

"Your Majesty," Zu Kefa said, "do you remember the Song-Jin Tianjuan peace negotiations?"

"The Tianjuan peace? Was that not when the Southern Song declared itself a vassal of the Jin and paid tribute in exchange for the lands of Henan and Shaanxi?"

Zu Kefa said, "Exactly, that time. Our dynasty might imitate it in part—using the recovery of Henan and the lands south of the Daqing River in Shandong as conditions, to sign three separate treaties with the Qing."

"Three treaties?" Zhu Cilang was taken aback. "Why three?"

Zu Kefa said, "One signed with Dodo, one with Ajige, and one with the Shunzhi Emperor!"

"Will they agree?" Zhu Cilang asked.

"No," Zu Kefa answered. "But they will negotiate with us. As long as there are negotiations, we can use stratagems to provoke Ajige and Dodo into war!"

"How would we use stratagems?" Zhu Cilang pressed.

Zu Kefa said, "We can make Ajige and Shunzhi believe that Dodo has already signed a secret pact with us. After all, Dodo's base is beyond the passes, while what we mainly want is the land within the passes. Even if in the end a border is drawn at the Great Wall, Dodo would not lose much."

"That is indeed a way!" Zhu Cilang laughed. "Who can make this trip?"

Zu Kefa said, "This subject can make a trip to Liaodong. In addition, Zu Zeqing can go negotiate with Ajige. As for the Shunzhi Emperor—this subject cannot think for the moment how to make contact."

Zhu Cilang smiled. "We have a way!"

(End of Chapter)