Chapter 815: Dodo's Poisonous Scheme

Once Ajige broke the ice, the atmosphere in the room loosened up a bit, and Dodo spoke up next: "There's another matter — the Japanese invasion of Joseon's coast. We can't just sit back and ignore it!

If our Great Qing wants to hold out against the Ming over the long haul, we absolutely cannot do without Joseon as a tributary state!"

Shunzhi picked up Dodo's thread and asked in return: "Imperial Uncle, is Joseon really more important than the Central Plains?"

Dodo smiled and said: "The Central Plains are easy to attack and hard to defend — it's the main battleground where north and south clash. We have no way to keep them out, so we can only let the Ming army come in. What we fear is that they won't come! Once they come, we can find ways to bog them down!

Once the Ming army is bogged down in the Central Plains, the north-south war becomes a contest of endurance! Whoever can last longer wins. Our Great Qing holds the advantage of terrain and has superior cavalry, so we can fight smart in the Central Plains with less investment of manpower and materiel. But in the end, we still have to pour resources in!

The Ming will of course have to invest several times more manpower and materiel than we do, but their national strength is also several times ours — they can afford it!

So if we want to win the Central Plains war, we must first stabilize our rear. We need money, grain, Western firearms, and civilian laborers and able-bodied men. Only then can we hold out long enough to drag down the Southern Ming. And our rear consists of three parts: the territory beyond the passes, the Mongols, and Joseon."

Dodo's assessment of the balance of power between north and south, and of the overall situation in the Central Plains war, was remarkably accurate!

The outcome of the Central Plains war would not actually be decided on the battlefield, but beyond it — in the economy, in production, in trade, in the comprehensive national strength of the two states, north and south.

Of course, superiority in comprehensive national strength did not automatically mean winning the Central Plains war, because the forces the Ming and Qing needed to commit in the Central Plains were not equal.

The Ming army was the attacking side, and it lacked the large cavalry force suited for strategic maneuver in the Central Plains, so it had to pay more. As for a quick decisive victory, that was highly unlikely — because when the side seeking battle lacks mobility while the side deliberately stalling has great mobility, relying on brilliant generalship to force the enemy into a decisive battle is actually very difficult.

Normally, only when one side faces a passive situation it cannot sustain does it resort to desperate gambles, giving the enemy a chance at a decisive battle under favorable conditions — the Battle of Song-Jin between Ming and Qing, for example, was exactly this kind of situation.

If Hong Chengchou had had enough money, grain, and time, and had prepared thoroughly and advanced steadily, even if he could not have won a great victory, he could still have forced the Qing army to lift the siege of Jinzhou and withdraw.

The Ming army today is well-trained and well-supplied, with all the time in the world and plenty of money and grain — and moreover, the Chongzhen Emperor whom the enemy loved most has been turned into the lofty Retired Emperor.

So even Dodo, the bravest and most capable commander in the Great Qing, did not dare pin his hopes of victory on the opponent making mistakes or taking risks. He could only prepare for a protracted war.

And to wage a protracted war of resistance against the Ming, the Great Qing had to secure the resources to sustain a long-term war!

In this age, the truly important war resources were four: first, grain; second, horses; third, firearms; fourth, manpower.

Dodo counted them off on his fingers: "The territory beyond the passes has developed well these past two years. The population has grown to over two million, and the cultivated land is around thirty million mu. These past few years, to let the people recover, we've collected taxes lightly, and even so we can take in over two million. If war breaks out on a large scale, doubling that would still be bearable. So as far as the territory beyond the passes goes, our grain supply is enough to feed us!"

It is true that we are in the Little Ice Age, but what really caused the severe drop in grain production was not excessively low temperatures, but the prolonged drought in the Central Plain and the northwest.

In the southern part of the northeast, however, winter snowfall is heavy and summer rainfall is still plentiful. Although the lowest winter temperatures are still a bit too low, there are two or three comparatively warm months in summer, and the sunshine is especially abundant — enough for a season of wheat and soybeans to grow vigorously.

Relying on this southern part of the northeast to feed tens of millions of people would of course be impossible, but Dodo's "Kingdom Beyond the Passes" had only two to three million people, so the cold southern plains of the northeast were enough to serve as a granary.

Dodo continued: "As for horses, the pastures in the north and west beyond the passes, plus the Bashang grasslands and the Khalkha Mongols, are enough to supply them.

But firearms and manpower are both still in short supply!

Firearms have to be obtained through the fur trade at Vladivostok — and that requires us to keep a firm grip on Joseon. Otherwise, the port of Vladivostok sits right under the enemy's blade!

As for manpower, Joseon must also supply a portion! The men for soldiering and fighting can come from the Nine Banners' descendants within and beyond the passes, but the laborers must be provided by the Joseon people. If we want to use grain from beyond the passes to supply the war within the passes, we have to transport grain from the Liao River bend to Beijing and Datong — that's a distance of thirteen hundred to fifteen hundred li. If we cannot set up grain stations along the route and have civilian laborers farm to feed themselves, the wastage in transporting grain would be enormous. Over a thousand li of transport, not even two-tenths survives!

And these civilian laborers for grain transport and land reclamation must be supplied by Joseon!"

The grain transport method Dodo was now proposing was called "relay transport" — splitting the fifteen-hundred-li grain route into dozens of segments, each a few days' travel, and setting up dozens of grain stations along the transport line. Each grain station would manage varying numbers of laborers, carts, and draft animals — because the grain convoy itself consumes supplies. From the point of departure onward, the grain should decrease day by day during transport. The laborers and animals all have to eat!

So by setting up transfer stations and running relay transport station by station, the number of laborers and animals can be continuously reduced along the way — when there's less grain, the men and animals hauling it must of course be reduced promptly, otherwise it's waste.

If land near the transfer stations can be opened up and farmed to supply the laborers' and animals' rations, then transport efficiency can be greatly improved.

But in that case, the laborers doing the hauling and farming would have to serve for long periods, and their families at home would be neglected. And Dodo couldn't let those laborers bring their families along either, because the families would also need food and drink!

So the families of these laborers would likely go hungry, and the farmland back home would be abandoned. Therefore Dodo could not use the Nine Banners' able-bodied men from beyond the passes for this work — he could only use Joseon people!

Dodo added: "Furthermore, when the army beyond the passes goes on campaign, it must also bring along a batch of civilian laborers with the army. If we send out fifty thousand troops, the number of civilian laborers accompanying them cannot be fewer than thirty thousand. Among the banner people beyond the passes who plow with horses (they're actually all Han Chinese), one able-bodied man can farm at least fifty mu of land. If we send thirty thousand able-bodied men with the army, we'd have to abandon one and a half million mu of farmland and lose several million shi of harvest. Unless absolutely necessary, we cannot overdraw the manpower beyond the passes — so we have to use Joseon people.

Therefore, the troops east of the passes must first deal with the trouble in Joseon! It won't take much time either — it should be settled within the year."

In other words, the troubles within the passes and with the Dzungars would have to wait for the time being.

The Shunzhi Emperor spoke up and asked: "Imperial Uncle, what about the Dzungar trouble? Are we still going to handle it or not?"

"Of course we must handle it!" Dodo laughed. "If we don't, the Southern Mongols and the Khalkha Mongols will fall into chaos sooner or later!"

"How do we handle it?" Shunzhi asked again. "Who sends troops, and from where?"

"This is a Mongol matter, so of course the Mongols send the troops!" Dodo laughed. "Your Majesty, aren't you the Great Khan of the Mongols? Then issue edicts to the Khorchin tribe and the three Khalkha khans, ordering them to send troops to attack the Ming's Yulin Garrison. We'll also transfer a few Hongyi cannon niru to support them. That should do it."

"Can they take it?" Shunzhi was not entirely sure.

"They definitely can't take it!" Dodo laughed. "But that doesn't matter. The Great Wall at Yulin Garrison stretches fifteen hundred li — how many men does that Prince of Dai, Zhu Cijiong, actually have? How can he possibly defend it all? As long as they break through one section of the border wall, those Mongols can get in and loot!

If Zhu Cijiong can't cope, then Zhu Cilang will have to send troops to help. No matter how many he sends, it will still relieve pressure on the Central Plains.

As for the Central Plains war and the marriage of the Fourteenth Princess, Your Majesty's arrangements are excellent! The territory of the three feudatories in the Central Plains will nominally serve as the princess's dowry, but in practice the three feudatories must hold their cities and resist!

At the same time, Your Majesty has already concentrated forces on both banks of the Yellow River within Kaifeng Prefecture, establishing the Henan Grand Camp and the Hebei Grand Camp!"

"What is the purpose of these two grand camps?" Shunzhi asked.

Dodo laughed: "Of course, it's so that when necessary, we can breach the Yellow River dikes and drown the Ming armies!"

Shunzhi was startled: "Fifteenth Uncle, if we do that, can the Fourteenth Princess still survive?"

(End of Chapter)