Chapter 944: Bitter Fruit Is Truly Sweet! (Please Subscribe)

"Your Majesty," Zheng Jiangong said thoughtfully, "this subject believes the center of gravity in the naval contest between Ming and Spain remains the coast of Japan, not the Philippine coast to the south. Therefore, whichever side Japan stands on will gain an enormous advantage!

Japan will be the key to victory or defeat in the Ming-Spain war!"

"Can we not seize the Philippines?" Zhu Cilang pressed. "The Sultanate of Sulu has long wished to submit to the Celestial Court. With Sulu providing logistics, our great army should be able to land on Luzon, and besieging Fort Santiago would not be much of a problem... Beijing was far harder to take than Fort Santiago!"

Taking a bastion fort is just a math problem, and now that the Zhu Emperor also had reliable explosive shells, Fort Santiago was no longer an issue.

"Whether the army can take Fort Santiago, this subject cannot say. But even if we took Fort Santiago and drove the Spanish out of the Philippines, would they simply let us go to the New World?" Zheng Jiangong paused, shook his head, and answered himself, "This subject believes that is impossible!"

Indeed! The real issue now was not the Philippines, but the New World!

Right now, that lunatic Spain had a pile of troubles — over in Europe it was still locked in an indecisive war with France and Portugal. How could it possibly fight a death-struggle with the Celestial Empire over a broken-down Philippines?

If Ming really took Fort Santiago, Spain would most likely just give it up.

And Zhu Cilang was not the sort of hot-headed Celestial emperor who would fight a great war with the Spanish Empire over half of the Philippines either.

"Half the Philippines" did not have that much value, and Spain's decline was only a matter of time. Half the Philippines would stay right where it was — it was not going to grow legs and run off. The Zhu Emperor was in no hurry at all. What harm was there in letting the Spanish develop it for another thirty or forty years?

But when it came to the New World and Australia, neither the Zhu Emperor nor Philip IV of Spain could possibly yield. So the Philippines' value in this war was very limited. Zhu Cilang would not give up the New World just because he had seized the Philippines, and Philip IV would even less allow Ming troops into the New World just because he had lost the Philippines.

"Marquis of Xiamen," Wei Zaode asked, "can the Spanish not set up defenses along the coast of the New World?"

"They cannot defend it." Zheng Jiangong shook his head. "Spain's strength in the New World is also rather limited, and the distance from their homeland to the northwest of the New World is simply too great. Moreover, looking at the sea charts, to sail north from the southern tip of the New World, once you cross the equator you meet headwinds and contrary currents, so it is very difficult to reach the northwest corner of the New World along the coastline. Perhaps the time they would need to sail north along the west coast of the New World is longer than taking the great circle route across the Pacific."

In the age of sail, sea routes depended on wind and currents. When wind and current were both favorable, a ship could make eight or ten nautical miles an hour — two hundred and several dozen nautical miles a day. Ten thousand nautical miles would take two months at most.

But against wind and current, it was slow... Although sailing ships of the Age of Discovery generally had the ability to sail upwind — by adjusting the angle of the sails and tacking in a zigzag course, a sailing ship could make headway against the wind. But sailing against the wind was slow. With a fair wind, two or three hundred nautical miles a day; against the wind, a few dozen at most... If they met dead calm and contrary current, they could only row with oars.

So after the Spanish discovered the "Black Current" and the Pacific warm current, they abandoned the route back to the New World via the equatorial counter-current, and instead made a great loop along the coast of Japan. Even though the Japanese had closed their country and would not allow Spanish ships to enter port and trade, the Spanish did not change their route.

From this one point, one can imagine the importance of Japan in the coming Ming-Spain war!

Zheng Jiangong continued: "If our ships can depart from Japan and sail east with a fair wind, crossing the Pacific is only a bit over ten thousand li, and it is a straight eastward course. At the least, one month; at the most, fifty days, and it is done. It is said that on this route both wind and current are favorable, and the waves are not too great. A great bird ship should be able to make the one-way passage... At present, a ten-thousand-dan bird ship costs only ten thousand taels to build, and forty or fifty crewmen can handle it. Even if each ship makes only a one-way passage, and the crew returns aboard a galleon like the Henan, the cost of shipping one dan of cargo from Japan to the New World would be between two and three taels. Adding the cost from Shanghai to Japan, it would probably not exceed four taels.

That is an extremely low cost. That is our winning edge!"

Zheng Jiangong, this "naval chief of staff," was at bottom also a profiteer, so before fighting he first did the accounts.

The key to victory or defeat in the Ming-Spain Pacific war, in his view, was simply comparing transport costs! It came down to the cost of moving troops, equipment, supplies, and settlers to the battlefield on the northwest corner of North America.

If Ming's cost to ship one dan of cargo to the northwest of the New World was only four or five taels of silver, then this war was worth fighting.

Even if the Spanish brought their thousand-ton galleon warships into the Pacific, Ming would still have a fair chance.

Because these thousand-ton warships were not very efficient for commerce raiding at sea — they were not fast, and there were not many of them. They simply could not cut the Japan–New World sea supply line. At most they could raise Ming's transport costs somewhat.

But they absolutely could not drive the cost up to a level Ming could not bear!

Once Ming had secured a foothold on the northwest corner of North America in the New World — built bastion forts, cleared farms, established a protectorate, discovered the American marten... then the Spanish would have no choice but to mount a distant expedition and send their army to attack.

However crazy Spain might be, their homeland had a population of only a bit over five million! And at the same time they still had to fight France and Portugal!

So as long as the exchange ratio in land warfare stayed within a reasonable range, Spain was bound to lose!

Of course, Ming also had no ability to seize all of New Spain. If they could take the area of the future Vancouver, Seattle, and Vancouver Island, and gain a foothold in North America, the Zhu Emperor would be quite satisfied.

With that foothold, sailing south to Australia would be a bit over ten thousand nautical miles — three or four months, and they could get there no matter what.

Zhu Cilang said to Wei Zaode: "Marquis of Tongzhou, tomorrow We shall issue an edict enfeoffing you as Duke of Kenan Meiguo, and also give you the title of imperial special envoy, appointing you to lead a delegation to visit Japan. You must find a way to pull the Tokugawa shogunate to our side, to deal with the Spanish together!"

Wei Zaode thought for a moment, then said: "Your Majesty, although the Tokugawa shogunate detests the Catholic faith and is on bad terms with Spain, their relations with us are not exactly harmonious either... I fear they will not help us fight the Spanish for no reason."

Japan had always stood at the edge of the Celestial Court's circle, neither entering nor leaving. Pulling them over would probably not be easy!

The Zhu Emperor said: "Marquis of Tongzhou, We know this errand is not easy to accomplish, which is why We ask you to go. You were Chief Grand Secretary of our dynasty for thirteen years, and even in Japan you are greatly renowned. If you go, you will certainly be able to meet directly with the real power-holders of Japan. We give you full authority — there is nothing that cannot be discussed... And We do not want Ming to be Japan's suzerain. Being brotherly nations is enough. Even if the Tokugawa shogun wants Japan to become an empire, We can recognize it.

Furthermore, on the disputed question of the Ryukyu Kingdom, We can also make concessions. We can let the Ryukyu Kingdom become an independent state jointly guaranteed by Ming and Japan. And We do not need Japan to send troops — We only need Japan to let us use the port of Uraga freely."

Zheng Jiangong interjected from the side: "Your Majesty, this subject can first go and discuss matters with Tokugawa Mitsukuni. He is a congratulatory envoy and has not yet left Nanjing."

"Good." Zhu Cilang nodded. "Go and talk first... Tell him We wish to send the Marquis of Tongzhou to Japan to congratulate their new emperor on his accession."

Japan had changed emperors the year before last. Emperor Go-Mizunoo abdicated and became a monk, and Emperor Go-Sai ascended the throne. Because of the question of the imperial title, Ming had not sent envoys to offer congratulations, but had simply ignored the matter.

Wei Zaode's ears were still sharp. He caught a "sensitive" word and quickly asked: "Your Majesty, did you say 'new emperor'?"

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