Chapter 221: Calculations

"Woliyan (Loushi)."

The first to act was Yinshu, but the first to speak was the inventor of the Jurchen script, Right Army Supervisor Wanyan Xiyin (Huo Nu). He frowned slightly and directly pointed out the key issue. "Even if the current situation is somewhat unfavorable, there's no need to exaggerate to this extent, and it certainly shouldn't be said here... because here we have the Emperor, the Grand Marshal, the various Princes, the Bogilie, and the marshals of the Marshal's Office. Such absurd words, spoken by a great general of the state in this place, could well bring about a storm of blood and wind!"

"A storm of blood and wind is precisely what I want." Loushi turned to Wanyan Xiyin, his tone still sincere, but with a faint, underlying force like rolling thunder.

After all, as Wanyan Xiyin had said, this man was a great general of the state.

At this point, Xiyin sighed softly and fell silent.

Loushi continued, speaking seriously to Wanyan Xiyin: "I know your ambition, Right Supervisor. You are wholeheartedly set on devising a proper system for the state, wanting to establish a unified set of rules like the Great Liao and Zhao Song. I also think this should be done. Great Jin is indeed too chaotic now... We use our own Jurchen rules, Khitan rules, and Han rules, all mixed and jumbled, not knowing which is good or which is right. There isn't a single proper place in the entire state; everything is held down solely by the strength of our armies. But the more this is the case, the more we must first rectify military affairs, or else we won't be able to hold it together much longer."

Wanyan Xiyin still kept his head down and said nothing.

"Right Supervisor." Seeing this, Loushi sighed helplessly. "Woliyan knows that your method is the one for long-term peace and order. But isn't it because you still have decades left to live, while I, Woliyan, am about to die? You still have decades of opportunity to rectify the system, but for me and the Fourth Prince, this kind of absurd talk can only be spoken now..."

Wanyan Xiyin opened his mouth but ultimately did not voice his agreement, clearly feeling conflicted inside.

At that moment, Grand Marshal Nianhan suddenly let out a laugh: "You two both think Great Jin is going to fall? It's been less than ten years since the Grand Ancestor passed away..."

Since Nianhan had spoken, many people joined in with forced laughter.

But among them, Loushi, Xiyin, and Wushu, who had stood up earlier, all turned their heads to look at Nianhan. Unexpectedly, none of them showed any trace of a smile.

Nianhan couldn't be bothered with Wushu, but after carefully scrutinizing Xiyin and Loushi, his expression also turned grim. As he grew serious, everyone in the hall who was somewhat prudent also wore grave expressions.

By this point, Loushi's purpose was already clear for all to see.

Even if one didn't know or understand Loushi, wasn't there still the Fourth Prince, Wanyan Wushu, who had quickly formed an on-the-spot alliance? Within Yanjing, who didn't know that Wushu had always insisted on launching a southern campaign to attack Zhao Song?

So, without any doubt or discussion, Loushi, who had returned south without success and seemingly didn't have much longer to live, had come precisely to seek reinforcements, to take advantage of the time he still had left to fight, and to persuade the nobles in this hall who held the power to make a firm decision and raise a great army to march south.

However, his reasons were indeed somewhat absurd, just as absurd as the usual words of the Fourth Prince, Wushu. The vast majority of people instinctively thought he was exaggerating at first, and that was the truth.

But what was even more interesting was that Wanyan Xiyin, the first to respond, had tacitly accepted the premise that the state faced enormous problems and crises, and then directly moved to the next level of debate—whether they should respond to the crisis with political reform or military means.

This made a portion of those who thought Great Jin was invincible feel quite embarrassed.

Because these two men were, respectively, the most learned man in Great Jin and the most skilled general in Great Jin.

If two such men simultaneously confirmed that the state's situation was bad, then it probably really was bad.

"I remember Xiyin wrote something," Wugimai had also grown serious, clasping his hands behind his back and seeming lost in thought. "He spoke of two great mistakes since our founding... One is the unclear system, so that after Xieye died, no one knew who should be the Anban Bogilie (heir). The other is the lack of a unified system. Though it's one state, we use four or five different methods to govern. For example, the relocation of Shanxi commoners to Huining Prefecture caused unrest for years. Another example is the incompatibility between the Han people in Hebei and the Meng'an-Mouke system, which also caused years of trouble. He said it was all caused by the system... I actually know all this. I just thought that with our strong armies, we could always suppress things and take it slowly. But according to Woliyan (Loushi) today, even the armies are gradually failing?"

"Let me inform Your Majesty," Loushi finally had the chance to bow respectfully and speak. "This is precisely what Woliyan has come to say today... First, our armies have indeed been gradually declining these past few years. Especially after the success at Bianliang, when we obtained so many women, children, and riches, we inevitably became arrogant and increasingly afraid of death day by day. This is human nature, and I need not elaborate. Second, the Song people, after that event, were on the verge of destruction, but by sheer luck, one Prince Kang slipped through our fingers. As a result, they have gradually risen in power, and their armies are becoming more and more formidable—this is also the truth. With one side rising and the other falling, in just three or four years, the Song people have already gained momentum, and we have suffered defeats. If we delay further, things will only get worse."

"So Woliyan's meaning is that we should take advantage of the time when people like you and me, who are about to die, are still alive, and when our troops who dare to fight and are capable of fighting are still sufficient, to spare no effort or lives, march straight out of Bianliang, and destroy Zhao Song once more?" Wugimai continued to ask seriously.

"Not exactly," Loushi replied frankly. "To be honest with Your Majesty, during my southern campaign, I probed thoroughly. The Song army's so-called Imperial Guard has already gained some momentum. Moreover, their defenses are tight, especially in the Henan region around Bianliang, where their forces are concentrated and support is swift. On top of that, we have lost the initiative on the waterways. It would be very difficult to destroy Zhao Song in a short, swift campaign now..."

Wugimai and everyone in the hall were stunned once again.

Nianhan couldn't help but snort derisively: "I didn't know that in just three years, the Song people have gained some momentum?"

"They have!" Loushi bowed earnestly to Nianhan again. "Grand Marshal, please do not underestimate the enemy."

"Then what do you want to do?" Nianhan suddenly seemed quite irritable, cutting in before Wugimai to ask this question.

"When I previously requested permission to march south, I intended to probe and scout," Loushi continued, bowing, still in that unhurried tone. "And I indeed spotted several weaknesses in the Song army..."

"Speak," the First Prince, Wanyan Woben, finally spoke up.

Loushi immediately straightened his expression, raised his voice, and spoke with ease and confidence:

"First, the Song army is also organized into eastern and western forces. The eastern force is the Imperial Guard, numbering as many as two hundred thousand, with better equipment and morale. The western force is a rebuilding of the former Western Army, but it is a force that has suffered repeated defeats. Although it has improved, its foundation is still extremely weak, and its numbers are only forty to fifty thousand..."

"Second, at present, although the Song army has some momentum, it is only some momentum. They lack large cavalry forces, so they can only remain on the defensive. They dare not relax their grip in places like Jingdong and Huaidong, and the mutual support range of their other forces is limited..."

"Third, the Song army is still mainly skilled with crossbows, trebuchets, and city defense. They are still weak against cavalry. They can defend cities but cannot fight in the open field..."

"Therefore, in my view, there is no decisive opportunity for battle east of Shanzhou. However, the region west of the Pass still holds great promise. If we can combine the eastern and western route armies to press westward together, sweeping south from northern Shaanxi, we might be able to fight a decisive battle west of the Pass, annex the Guanzhong and Shaanxi regions. And with Guanzhong and Shaanxi in our hands..."

"If Guanzhong and Shaanxi are in our hands," Yinshu, the second most famous general still alive, suddenly interjected, "no matter how many people die, it will be worth it. Because if both Guanzhong-Shaanxi and Jingdong are in our hands, then even if the Song people have heaven-defying abilities, they will have to abandon the Central Plains, and even Bashu will hold great promise."

The crowd had mixed reactions to Yinshu's words.

The younger ones felt that since two of the state's most famous living generals said so, this move must be highly promising. But the older and more strategic ones keenly realized that Yinshu's words, like Wanyan Xiyin's earlier opening, achieved the same effect through different means:

Wanyan Xiyin's initial rebuke against rashly resorting to arms tacitly acknowledged that the state faced a serious crisis and that action was necessary. Yinshu, by directly discussing the feasibility of a military plan, clearly first recognized the necessity of launching a campaign.

In truth, a man's reputation is like a tree's shadow. With Loushi's sudden arrival, his strong advocacy for war, and his sound reasoning, many had already been swayed. And with Yinshu's sudden declaration of support, from Emperor Wugimai down to the several Grand Princes, the marshals of the Marshal's Office, and the Bogilie, they all instinctively felt that a campaign should indeed be launched.

In fact, when there is internal indecision, launching an external campaign is a national tradition.

Of course, things might have been a bit abrupt, and people might still need some psychological adjustment. Moreover, since a joint campaign by both the eastern and western routes was required, a new round of 'discussion' among the three major factions was inevitable.

But regardless, the situation at hand seemed to be heading in the direction Loushi wanted.

The reason for saying 'seemed' was that at this critical moment when almost everyone was tempted, Loushi, Yinshu, and Xiyin's superior, and their de facto political leader, the all-powerful Grand Marshal Nianhan, suddenly said nothing, stood up, and without concealing his anger, swept his sleeve and left from beside Wugimai and Loushi, causing an uproar in the hall.

Nianhan was currently in power. If he wasn't willing, no one could do anything about it.

And so, Loushi's sudden audience at the Yanjing Department of State Affairs ended on a sour note. This great Jin general's plan, staked on the final days of his life, was thus stranded.

Unexpectedly, Loushi maintained remarkable composure, displaying the bearing of a great general.

That noon, the Emperor hosted a banquet, which goes without saying. After the banquet, Wanyan Loushi declined the Fourth Prince Wushu's enthusiastic invitation. He had intended to seek out Wanyan Xiyin for a talk, but Xiyin had already left early, clearly avoiding Loushi... With no other choice, Loushi could only ride back side-by-side with his old friend Yinshu, planning to stay with this newly appointed Yanjing Defender of just a few months, along with his son.

"Don't blame the Grand Marshal, and don't blame Xiyin. Your timing for this visit couldn't be worse." The two had a bond forged through decades of life-and-death experiences, so there were no taboos. After Wanyan Moushi had fallen back to block the personal guards, Yinshu spoke directly on horseback, touching on certain forbidden topics.

"Are the Grand Marshal and Xiyin planning something?" Loushi remained unhurried.

"Xiyin wants to do something, but the Grand Marshal both wants to do something and doesn't want to do something. Yet you all always insist on doing something." Yinshu laughed, speaking as if reciting a tongue twister. "You haven't been in Yanjing, and you've never bothered with political struggles, so of course you don't know about these things... The Emperor wants his own son to succeed to the throne. The First Prince and the Third Prince also have their ambitions. The Grand Marshal transferred me and Xiyin to Yanjing, hoping to completely suppress the other two factions and seize control of the court. And what happened? After Xiyin arrived, instead of helping the Grand Marshal devise strategies, he thought about implementing bureaucratic reforms and setting up the Three Departments and Six Ministries. And the Grand Marshal hates these Han Chinese things the most. Before you came, Xiyin was kicked out of the Grand Marshal's house once. The two of them are still angry with each other. The Emperor is also trying to win over Xiyin."

"Leave Xiyin aside for now," Loushi finally frowned. "Even with the Grand Marshal, I'm not afraid he'll suspect me of disloyalty. You know, I'm from the Seven Waters Tribe, not a proper member of the imperial clan like you. So all my life, I've had to stick close to the Grand Marshal. Besides, if we attack west of the Pass and succeed, wouldn't it benefit the Western Route Army more? And with the Grand Marshal's intelligence, once he's finished being angry, he'll realize this truth sooner or later... But if he insists on settling the position of Anban Bogilie (Crown Prince) first before discussing anything else, that will be troublesome."

"That's exactly the point," Yinshu finally frowned as well. "Woliyan, you know me. I have many sons, but my most capable eldest son died under the walls of Nanyang. Balisu has also told me much about the Southern court's officials and armies... So, before you went south this time, no one in the court understood the rise of Zhao Song's army better than I did. Not to mention that after you personally saw the Song army on your southern campaign and still think we should fight, then of course we should fight. But you also need to know that the court is a tripod with three legs. After the First Prince and the Third Prince split, the various Princes, Bogilie, and Marshals only have the power to advise. The Emperor and the Grand Marshal have the power to directly veto. And among them, the Emperor is still the Emperor. He has to consider the overall situation. Your sincere words have shaken him this time. I think there's a ninety percent chance he agrees with launching a campaign. But you cannot bypass the Grand Marshal."

"Then what can be done?" Loushi tugged at his reins, momentarily at a loss. "Given the Grand Marshal's temper, he certainly won't punish me. But it's common for him to sulk and refuse to send troops. And at this time of year, if we delay any longer, once summer comes, it won't just be a missed opportunity; we'll truly miss the hunting season."

"Help him settle the position of Anban Bogilie," Yinshu suddenly laughed again. "What else can be done?"

"This matter has been dragging on for half a year without resolution. How can it be settled hastily?" Loushi frowned even deeper.

"Precisely because it's been dragging on for so long, and your arrival in Yanjing has stirred up unrest, it might just be possible to settle it directly," Yinshu said seriously.

"Yinshu," Loushi suddenly reined in his horse, stopping in the middle of the road, and sighed. "In doing this, I serve both public and private interests... It's true that I want to take the region west of the Pass and secure the Central Plains for the state. But what I said to the Emperor in the hall today about my two worthless sons was no lie either... And my thoughts of taking this opportunity to expand the Grand Marshal's foundation, repay his kindness, find a peaceful place like Hebei for the soldiers of our Western Route Army, and ease my own conscience—none of these are false words."

"I know," Yinshu also stopped his horse to face him, but after Loushi finished speaking, he suddenly chuckled lightly. "You've been like this your whole life. Your mind is clear, you understand all the pros and cons, you grasp all the situations. But no matter what it is, you only ever reach for it in front of your horse, without any other discussion... Heh heh... And the thing is, you've been victorious in a hundred battles your whole life. You can get anything that's in front of your horse. There's no choice but to accept it!"

"Since you know that, why do you still want me to get involved in this kind of matter?"

"Since I know it, how could I need you to get involved?" Yinshuke laughed again. "I've long had a brilliant plan to settle this matter and satisfy both the Grand Marshal and Xiyin, but it's always been just short of the mark..."

Loushi remained silent.

"I want the Grand Marshal to install the late Fifth Prince's orphan, the twelve-year-old Hela, the eldest grandson of the Ancestor, as Anban Bojilie," Yinshuke laid out his cards directly. "To Xiyin, this is the system of primogeniture, so he'll have nothing to say; to the Grand Marshal, not only can he cast aside the current ruler's family and the two older princes, greatly establishing his own authority, but more importantly, Hela is young, so in the future the Grand Marshal can oversee state affairs as regent... Therefore, the Grand Marshal will surely be delighted, and Xiyin will surely agree. Once the Grand Marshal is happy and Xiyin agrees, we'll go and speak of it, and then our Western Route Army will be united from top to bottom. At that time, we can naturally launch a major campaign."

Loushi still did not speak.

"And to be honest with you, Woliyan, during my months in Yanjing, I've become very close with Talan. He enjoys much trust from the ruler, but these days he's been having a very hard time. He's also seen that the ruler has no strength to carry on, and has tried several times to show goodwill to the Grand Marshal... With him on board, even if we install Hela, the ruler most likely won't delay the campaign." Yinshuke added more weight.

Loushi still said nothing.

"The rift between the First Prince and the Third Prince has thrown the Eastern Route Army into panic. At this point, the Fourth Prince becomes pivotal. Based on his behavior in court today, if you can go and speak frankly with him and win him over, and since this is after all the Ancestor's eldest grandson, then perhaps the entire group of princes can be swayed. With two of the three factions settled, and the ruler's trusted men all conceding defeat, then given the ruler's character, this matter will be nine parts out of ten settled..." Yinshuke finally revealed the key point.

"Where does the Fourth Prince reside?" Wanyan Loushi finally spoke.

Yinshuke broke into a knowing smile, then pursed his lips to signal his personal guard to lead the way, but couldn't help sighing with emotion: "I knew Woliyan would still be Woliyan."

Loushi had already ridden a few steps, but now he too couldn't help reining in his horse and turning back, shaking his head in response: "Yinshuke is still Yinshuke... You lack neither military merit nor seniority nor status, so why do you always want to advance further?"

Yinshuke, a few years older than Loushi, gave a wry smile and sighed in reply: "Too many sons! After one dies, there's still a pile left, and there are also brothers, nephews, and old subordinates—just like you, I have to make plans for them all. It's just that I'm too old, and I really don't want to risk my life on the battlefield anymore... This time, I won't accompany you. I'll stay in Yanjing and watch you, Woliyan, achieve another unparalleled feat."

"The court is treacherous, no less dangerous than the battlefield. Take care." Loushi was silent for a moment, then left only these words before turning and following the long-waiting guide to seek out Wanyan Wushu.