Chapter 493: Prediction

The second year of Wude, early in the second month.

Opposite Puyang City stretched a hundred-li-long embankment called the "Golden Dike," a stone levee built during the Han dynasty.

But even the mightiest fortress, battered year after year by the Yellow River's onslaught, will show cracks — and now a huge breach had opened on the Golden Dike's right bank, at a place called Huzi, where the river bends. Of the nine Han-era river bursts, five were linked to this spot. Emperor Wu of Han once mobilized hundreds of thousands for emergency repairs, sinking a white horse and jade disks into the river and ordering every civil and military official, every attendant, to haul brushwood and carry firewood to help plug the breach. But times changed — the bamboo rafts and bamboo gabions at Huzi Gap rotted away, and as extreme weather grew more frequent, the dike finally burst again in Wang Mang's reign.

Now the great river had shifted course, surging away eastward, leaving the Golden Dike standing alone in its original place, surrounded by dry land.

The Henei laborers under Xiang Ziping took shelter from the sun beneath the Golden Dike.

Henei's household registration system was well run. For men like them, who had suffered at the hands of the Red Eyebrows and resolutely answered the recruitment call, the local government offices would give priority in lending seed grain. Grateful as they were to the Emperor, their only worry was whether the old, the weak, the women, and the children back home could manage the grueling spring plowing.

As for winning merit and rewards in the army? The men had gradually given up hope. The Wei army was not what it had been — internal strife ran deep. On the surface, under Diwu Lun, it was a solid block of iron, but in reality every faction was secretly picking the fat and leaving the lean. In this great battle, the Ji Province faction, the Sili faction, and Ma Yuan's faction were all thrown together to fight. Assistant generals angled for a titled generalship; titled generals angled for a full generalship; and full generals, no doubt, were still angling for a "ducal title." So the higher-ups were remarkably eager to seek battle — especially when the wind was at their backs, no one would yield an inch. The Henei laborers, attached to Governor Feng Qin, could only trail at the very rear and not even catch a fart.

"What's more, the Red Eyebrow bandits who ravaged our homes — the Emperor says we stop fighting them, and that's that? What is this?"

Some chewed their dry rations, sent from the rear, and grumbled. Their hate-filled eyes turned to the other side of the Golden Dike, where a group of Red Eyebrow captives, guarded by government troops, were also doing hard labor — all men from the Cheng Tou Zi Lu faction. The Henei men, remembering how their own homes had been plundered, wanted to go over and pick a fight, but officers blocked them and drove them back, so resentment simmered in their hearts.

Word had it that on other sections, brawls between laborers and Red Eyebrow captives had also broken out. The officials generally tilted the scales — they let the laborers have the upper hand without interfering, and only stepped in when the Red Eyebrow captives were about to turn defeat into victory. But at most the laborers could land a few kicks, a few punches, and still felt it wasn't enough to vent their anger.

"Making them do hard labor is too soft-hearted."

"In my view, we should tie them all up and sink them in the river! Maybe if we sink the bastards, the river will stop its raging."

"Tithing Leader Xiang, what do you say?"

Xiang Ziping said nothing, but in his heart he only felt that the Emperor of Wei had surely never suffered the same hardships they had. After defeating Cheng Tou Zi Lu with the help of Ling Hong, he had actually incorporated the enemy. Although Cheng Tou Zi Lu, after gathering his old followers, had been placed under house arrest and used merely as a horse's bone, rumors in camp said the Emperor would grant him an official post and so on…

To become an official, commit murder and arson, then accept amnesty! That saying, it seemed, never went out of style.

Was he not afraid of chilling the hearts of the people of Wei and Henei? They were the ones braving arrows and stones, shedding blood and sweat, the main force fighting to conquer the realm for the Emperor. Could it be that Diwu Lun wanted to be not only the Emperor of the Wei people, but also the Emperor of the Red Eyebrows and the roving bandits?

Toward Diwu Lun, their gratitude was one thing, their complaints another. In any case, the men had all but given up on "winning battle merit." They just wanted to finish the work and the fighting as fast as possible, so they could get home in time for the farming season.

Just then, a gong sounded atop the Golden Dike — the Bao Leader had come to hurry them: "You've been eating for half a shichen already, and the sun isn't so fierce now. Even the donkeys in the village hamlet wouldn't dare rest this long."

The men could only rise from the shade and merge into the great host hauling timber and door planks — their main task was to build a pontoon bridge at Huzi Gap, which, by making use of the Golden Dike, would save a great deal of trouble.

Boats from Henei were lashed together with ropes at Huzi Gap, while Xiang Ziping and his men led the effort to lay timber and door planks across the boats.

It turned out that, after entering the second month, the main force of the Red Eyebrow Army at Puyang City had suddenly withdrawn southward. The Wei army high command speculated that they meant to flee!

It seemed the Red Eyebrow Army was still carrying forward its tradition of being good at moving, leaping out of this encirclement that Diwu Lun and Ma Yuan had laid between the Yellow River and the Ji River. Since west, east, and north were all blocked by the Wei army using the terrain, the only way was south. To the south stretched a flat, open plain, three hundred li wide from Chenliu to Dingtao. The only obstacle was the Ji River, but compared to the Yellow River, the Ji was a mere trifle, not worth mentioning.

Diwu Lun resolved to lead the Ji Province and Henei troops in pursuit, coordinating with Ma Yuan to fight a great decisive battle by the Ji River.

The laborers, having eaten their fill, kept their mouths busy even while hauling timber: "Puyang has also raised the five-colored banner and been restored, hasn't it? Why not have the Puyang people build a pontoon bridge on the south bank too? That would save at least a day!"

Though a scholar, Xiang Ziping was used to working the fields at home and was not frail. He hoisted a piece of timber onto his shoulder and said, "Perhaps they fear there are still Red Eyebrow spies among the people of Puyang."

He had heard that many of Fan Chong's main Red Eyebrow force were also men from Dong Commandery. The trick of identifying a fellow townsman by accent was utterly useless. The people of Puyang were short of food and hoped to join the "work-for-relief" effort, but Diwu Lun had ordered the officials to keep them under restraint, allowing them only to repair the city defenses. Grain was shipped into the city by boat, a brigade of troops was stationed there, and no one was permitted to enter or leave the city walls without authorization!

Even the most loyal officials thought Diwu Lun was being excessively cautious — until the fourth day of the second month, when it was proven that this vigilance was far from superfluous!

That day, the pontoon bridge was basically complete. The army could cross early the next morning. The laborers crossed first, in the first wave, and set up camp on the south bank of the Yellow River.

After many days of exhaustion, the men snored like thunder. Only Xiang Ziping tossed and turned, unable to sleep, thinking of his nephews and other young kin back home. In the midst of his restlessness, he felt a call of nature, crawled out of the straw hut, and was about to relieve himself — but just as he was loosening his belt, he suddenly heard a sharp blast of horns and drums!

So startled he forgot even to piss, he bolted back to the straw hut in a flash of alarm and kicked the others awake.

And Wang the Bao Leader, not even bothering to put on his clothes, came bare-chested to shout at the men.

"Run!"

"The Red Eyebrow bandits have come back!"

…

Even though scouts spread thirty li out had sent back early warning, when the laborers on the south bank were mustered in chaos and hurriedly rushed onto the pontoon bridge, they could still hear the war cries of the Red Eyebrow vanguard.

Torches raised, shouting, brandishing crude swords and blades, they charged heedlessly toward the riverbank.

Because the pontoon bridge had only been finished in the middle of the night, not many Wei troops had crossed the river. Puyang City held one brigade, which, after a brief hesitation, chose to keep its gates tightly shut, immovable as a mountain.

As for the one brigade of troops and one brigade of laborers outside the city, thanks to the timely alert, they made it onto the pontoon bridge just before the Red Eyebrows reached the river and hurriedly withdrew to the north bank. Xiang Ziping and his comrades were caught up in the chaos. His eyes were fixed desperately on the Wei army's main camp on the north bank, and he feared only one thing.

"The Emperor will burn the bridge!"

His eyesight was sharp. He seemed already to see the crossbowmen lighting their smoke-tipped arrows, raising them high, waiting only for Diwu Lun's single command to send a skyful of fiery rain plummeting down, burning the laborers and the pontoon bridge they had toiled for days to build all together.

But from first to last, Diwu Lun never gave that order. Xiang Ziping and the others spent a quarter of an hour crossing the swaying, unsteady pontoon bridge. With a desperate lunge he leaped ashore and sprawled on solid ground, feeling he had escaped from death.

But very soon, soldiers prodded him to his feet with dagger-axes and spears. Troops escorted them toward the rear. Xiang Ziping noticed that, unlike the panic on the south bank, the Wei army on the north bank was remarkably composed. Relying on the Golden Dike, they had laid out line after line of defensive formations along the shore. There were even elite armored troops who had deliberately extinguished their torches and sat behind the camp! Like silent mountain boulders, they waited only for the Emperor's command to burst out of the darkness.

This could never have been arranged in just a few quarters of an hour. With a sensitive awareness, Xiang Ziping realized that the Wei Emperor's refusal to burn the pontoon bridge was perhaps not as simple as mere kindness of heart…

"You, laborer — scared pissless, are you?" The soldier escorting Xiang Ziping suddenly laughed. Xiang Ziping looked down and only then discovered that his lower body was soaked — he had lost control of his bladder during the frantic flight. As for when it had happened? With his life at stake, who could remember? That piss had been killing him.

Xiang Ziping was a little embarrassed, but had no desire to explain. He simply turned his head, stared in astonishment toward the south bank, and with a single "Huh?" diverted the mocker's attention.

"The Red Eyebrows really have all come back?"

He saw, across the plain, a myriad torches springing up. They were like blindly swarming fireflies, and also like a surging sea of flame. And the tiny city of Puyang, along with the pontoon bridge the Wei army had abandoned, was already completely surrounded!

…

Atop the Golden Dike, Diwu Lun was also watching the battle. The Red Eyebrows' departure and sudden return had caught most of his ministers by surprise, but to Diwu Lun, it was entirely within reason.

"Our army often wins by standing firm, while the Red Eyebrows are the exact opposite — they excel at winning through movement."

From breaking the Xin army at Chengchang to destroying the Greenwood, every major Red Eyebrow battle had been won by deceiving and pinning the enemy in motion. Over the past seven years, they had maneuvered hundreds of li, thousands of li — now, after withdrawing a few dozen li south, to suddenly wheel around and strike back was standard procedure.

Of course, besides relying on prediction, Diwu Lun had also scattered his scouts far and wide to get early warning — after all, his hallmark in warfare was having countless backup plans ready, from Plan A all the way to Plan D.

Now, watching the Red Eyebrows return to the south bank, Diwu Lun could only marvel at the spectacle.

The Red Eyebrow Army still refused to accept their fate, refused to admit defeat, as if using their actions to tell him: We are no mere moths.

We are the very inferno that sets the world ablaze!

Governor Feng Qin of Henei and Commandant of Waters and Parks Du Shi, who were in charge of the pontoon bridge, came to report:

"Your Majesty, our troops and laborers have all crossed to the north bank."

"This pontoon bridge — should we…"

"Burn it?" Diwu Lun said. "Then wouldn't all these days of effort have been wasted? The Red Eyebrows could have raided the pontoon bridge long ago and cut off our route of pursuit. They held back, waiting for the day it was finished. Wouldn't all that patience have been for nothing too?"

The two men looked at each other. Geng Chun, however, understood. After Diwu Lun nodded, Geng Chun said to them, "This is His Majesty's strategy of openly building the pontoon bridge! Its purpose was to deliberately signal an intent to cross south and pursue, luring the Red Eyebrows to turn back!"

Diwu Lun had also solved the puzzle: "Our three forces set a net between the Ji River and the Yellow River. By normal reasoning, the Red Eyebrows should break out southward, but Fan Chong is sharp and daring — he guessed that we placed the battlefield on the Ji River, and going south would be walking into a trap. He has always been bold; he might well do the opposite, a case of 'southward carriage, northward tracks.' If he can smash our forces north of the River, even cross the great river and take my head, then this encirclement — wouldn't it unravel itself?"

This battle was unlike the one in Longyou; it would be a contest of maneuver and shifting across the great plains. Fan Chong had courage, but Diwu Lun had wits as well.

This was why Diwu Lun had kept the construction unhurried and unhalting. Now the Red Eyebrows had indeed turned back. They had not slipped through the southern mesh of the net — but heading north, was that not a trap as well?

"No need to burn the pontoon bridge. The point is to make the Red Eyebrows think there is an opening, so they risk an attack."

"While they are delayed by our forces around Puyang, General Zhang Zong, who has secretly crossed at Baima, Dong Xian from the Great Wild Marsh to the east, Wenyuan from Dingtao to the southeast, and Zheng Tong from Chenliu to the southwest — all four armies will converge on Puyang!"

"So when Your Majesty ordered Henei to prepare boats upstream, it was so General Zhang Zong could cross first."

Feng Qin and Du Shi suddenly saw the light. Each had his strengths in civil affairs, earthworks, and water management, but they truly did not understand warfare.

And those regiments and civilian laborers sent to Puyang and the south bank — it was now impossible to say whether they were a blunder or bait, which sent a chill down the spine.

In this way, the initiative in the war seemed to have returned to Diwu Lun's hands. At Puyang, he could now bring into play the "stand-and-fight" tactics at which the Wei army excelled.

Everything was going as expected. Yet beneath Diwu Lun's surface calm, a small unease stirred in his heart. For this battle, he still needed more intelligence before he could judge the full picture.

"The Red Eyebrows left plenty of men disguised as Dong Commandery refugees, mingling along the riverbank. They know the pontoon bridge's progress perfectly well. If Fan Chong truly meant to strike me first, he could wait until tomorrow when my main army is halfway across — that would make my act far harder to perform."

"So why come on the very first night? Is this a rash move by the Red Eyebrows, or does he have some other aim?"

Although Fan Chong's "Grand Duke" banner was planted on the south bank of the Yellow River, and the Red Eyebrows were poised to lunge at the pontoon bridge,

Fan Chong himself was actually a hundred li south of Puyang, on the banks of the Pu River.

"The Fourth Duke, Xie Lu, has already fought his way to the great river's edge."

He addressed the Red Eyebrow Elders and Attendants: "There is a story from Ju City: a cicada drinks the dew, a mantis is about to seize the cicada, unaware that an oriole behind it is about to eat it — and behind the oriole, a youth with a pellet-bow is taking aim at the treetop."

"The Puyang pontoon bridge is that dew. Diwu Lun is the cicada. Xie Lu is the mantis. Ma Yuan and the others are the oriole. And the Red Eyebrows — we are that pellet-bow child!"

Just as Diwu Lun had predicted Fan Chong's prediction, Fan Chong had predicted Diwu Lun's prediction. The two were locked here in a battle of wits and courage, each fishing for the other.

Fan Chong had never once thought of simply fleeing. Every shift and maneuver of the Red Eyebrow Army was preparation for a new campaign!

The giant Fan Chong raised a pair of red eyebrows and declared: "This fight is hard, and yet it is not. Diwu Lun and his liege are the strongest foes the Red Eyebrows have ever faced. But it is easy, too..."

"Whichever Wei army hurries toward Puyang — I will strike them first!"

PS: Chapter two in the middle of the night.