Chapter 533: Failure to Understand the Greater Picture

Whether by coincidence or by some unspoken resonance, Liu Xiu, the King of Wu, cut off from all news of Chang'an in Pengcheng in Xu Province on the eve of his proclamation as emperor, was also, with keen interest, discussing with others that great question: "Why did the Xin dynasty fall?"

But unlike Diwu Lun's long-planned, step-by-step investigation of public sentiment, Liu Xiu's reflections on the faults of Xin arose simply because he had met a certain man in Pengcheng.

"When I was at the Imperial Academy in those years, I long heard of Lord Huan's renown. I never imagined that Lord Huan would take refuge from the chaos in Huainan. Had your clan nephew Huan Chunqing, serving as a Court Counselor, not informed me, I would have nearly let a great talent slip through my fingers."

The man who could make Liu Xiu so humbly seek out worthy scholars was the great celebrity Huan Tan. Huan Tan had been captured by the Red Eyebrows in his home district of Pei and reduced to an ox-herding clerk. Later, separated from his disciples like Liu Penzi by illness, he was left stranded north of the Huai River. It was only thanks to fellow Confucian scholars who risked their lives to help him that he managed to cross the Huai and enter Huainan, which was under Liu Xiu's control.

Huan Tan thus drifted between the Yangtze and Huai rivers. His illness took over a year to slightly improve. Once he could walk on his own, he heard that Diwu Lun had already proclaimed himself emperor and was sweeping across the north, and he thought of going to join him. But while crossing the Huai, he encountered a fleeing clansman — his clan nephew Huan Rong, also of the Longkang Huan clan. Though very young, Huan Rong had already pledged himself to Liu Xiu, serving as a "Court Counselor" while also handling the duties of a County Magistrate.

And so Huan Tan was unable to conceal his identity and return north. His nephew submitted a memorial that brought him to Liu Xiu's attention, and Liu Xiu invited him to Pengcheng, where he became an honored guest.

Huan Tan's vast knowledge and his close friendship with Diwu Lun were the main reasons Liu Xiu valued him, but Liu Xiu's first impression on Huan Tan was also excellent — far higher than when Huan Tan first met Diwu Lun and judged him to be merely "a scholar of the countryside"!

He had assumed that Liu Xiu, having risen to prominence through the Battle of Kunyang and being a Nanyang magnate, might be arbitrary and arrogant. To his surprise, at their first meeting, Liu Xiu presented the image of a courteous and refined Confucian king. Not only did he grasp the general meaning of the Five Classics, but even while the realm was still unsettled, he never let a scroll leave his hands. Wherever he went, he would set aside his weapons to expound the arts and halt his horse to discuss the Dao, winning the affection of the scholars.

After just one meeting and a brief conversation, Huan Tan inwardly nodded and thought: "In breadth of classical learning and eloquence in political debate, Boyu, though a disciple of Yang Ziyun, is still not the equal of Liu Wenshu."

Huan Tan glanced at his clan nephew Huan Rong, a youth of seventeen or eighteen kneeling nearby, whose gaze toward Liu Xiu was filled with reverence. No wonder this young lad was so utterly devoted to Liu Xiu and had insisted on dragging him here to meet him — Liu Xiu was indeed extraordinary.

What was even more surprising was that upon meeting Huan Tan, Liu Xiu did not ask him to compare himself with Gongsun Shu, whom Huan Tan had met, or with Diwu Lun, with whom he was on good terms. Instead, he posed a single question.

"Of late, I have often pondered one matter. In former days, Wang Mang had already succeeded in usurping the throne, and the situation was greatly in his favor. How is it that in a mere fifteen years, he lost the realm? Lord Huan served at court for many years and was often able to have audience with Wang Mang, yet you remained aloof and stood apart from the crowd. You must have seen the signs of the Xin dynasty's collapse early on. I earnestly request your instruction."

To inquire into the political successes and failures of the Xin dynasty — this meant that Liu Xiu, just after concluding a great battle, was already pondering the governance of the state and seeking to rectify the errors of the previous dynasty. It was no wonder. Pengcheng had just suffered great chaos, yet Liu Xiu had already set about restoring production. It was too late to plant grain and wheat, but beans had to be sown. Although his troops were often guilty of plunder, they were generally still under Liu Xiu's control. Moreover, his officials were all neatly dressed in proper attire, bearing the dignified air of the Former Han, which moved some old loyalists to tears.

But this did not include Huan Tan. He was an unrestrained scholar, always susceptible to persuasion but never to coercion. Since Liu Xiu was so humble, Huan Tan did not begrudge him his instruction.

Yet when Huan Tan opened his mouth, he did not disparage Wang Mang. Instead, he began to praise the old man.

"Old Wang possessed three qualities that surpassed the common run of men."

Before Wang Mang's abdication and usurpation, Huan Tan had been one of his admirers, busying himself in his service and doing many things for him. He still remembered Wang Mang's bearing vividly.

"His wisdom was sufficient to cover up the faults he committed."

"He had considerable rhetorical skill. When debating the classics, he could exhaust and refute renowned scholars, leaving them convinced."

"His awe-inspiring authority could intimidate the multitudes of his underlings."

At this point, Huan Tan sighed. But after the Duke Who Pacifies the Han was no longer content to serve as Acting Emperor, everything changed.

"Thus, among Wang Mang's ministers, none were able, and none dared, to refute his wild fancies, still less to risk offending him with forthright remonstrance. As for the Xin dynasty's ultimate defeat and downfall, it was because Old Wang did not understand the greater picture."

Liu Xiu nodded. "What do you mean by not understanding the greater picture?"

Huan Tan said: "When Old Wang first took control of the state, he believed himself to be an enlightened sage who appears only once every five hundred years, and that none of his ministers' wisdom or talent could match his own. He was therefore obstinate and self-willed. In his undertakings and initiatives, apart from consulting one or two men like Liu Xin, he acted entirely on his own. He would often issue an edict on a sudden impulse and implement it, only to find it out of step with reality. Very few of his measures succeeded. This is the first way he failed to understand the greater picture."

"Old Wang envied the sage-kings' governance of the Three Dynasties and scorned the Han house's way of the hegemon and the king. In government affairs, he made numerous changes, restoring antiquity everywhere, abandoning the near to pursue the distant. What he did not realize was that the politics of a thousand years ago had long been beyond verification. Those so-called Rites of Zhou were merely fabrications and patchwork concocted by Confucian scholars of the Warring States period — tantamount to raving nonsense. How could they be directly applied to reality? This is the second way he failed to understand the greater picture."

"When Old Wang campaigned north against the Xiongnu and east against the Red Eyebrows and Greenwood bands in Qing and Xu, he failed to select good generals, trusting only his close associates like Wang Yi. There was a Yan Erudite, but he could not bring himself to give the man free rein. This led to the great defeat at Kunyang, and Diwu Boyu seized the chance to raid his capital. Wang Mang could only flee in utter disarray. Your Majesty's frontal assault destroyed three hundred thousand Xin troops — as if severing both arms of the Xin dynasty — while Diwu Lun stabbed directly into its heart. The Xin dynasty thus perished abruptly. Old Wang did not know how to judge men. This is the third way he failed to understand the greater picture."

"Lastly, Old Wang was fond of divination, firmly believed in prognostications and apocrypha, and built many temples, using these to decide state affairs and military campaigns. When he had no other recourse, he even went to the southern suburbs to weep to Heaven. He was, one may say, utterly blinded by prognostications, spirits, and ghosts! This is the fourth way he failed to understand the greater picture."

Huan Tan looked at the four fingers he had extended. Every time he recalled how the "Duke of Zhou" who had once won the hearts of the world had, in a mere twenty years, fallen to the state of a rat scurrying across the street — how his once-glorious "bringing of great peace" had instead plunged the realm into chaos — he could feel the cruel mockery of worldly affairs.

"Had Wang Mang understood the greater picture even slightly, he would not have fallen so swiftly."

To understand the greater picture is to have a sense of the overall situation. This, in Huan Tan's mind, was the most essential quality for a ruler.

Liu Xiu still wore the expression of one reverently receiving instruction. Huan Tan, growing rather pleased with himself, did not stop at making his point. To further prove his theory, he began to gild the lily.

No longer sitting rigidly upright, he leaned to one side and pointed out the window with his little finger, saying: "Of all the various Han claimants under Heaven — whether Greenwood's Liu Xuan, Liu Yong, the false Liu Ziyu, or even Your Majesty's elder brother Liu Bosheng — every one of them perished because they failed to understand the greater picture."

At these words, several officers and officials in the hall who had followed Liu Bosheng flew into a rage, thinking: "The one who fails to understand the greater picture is you, you insolent scholar!"

Liu Xiu, however, did not grow angry. Huan Tan was speaking the truth. Had his elder brother understood the overall situation even a little, he would not have charged headlong toward the Guanzhong region but would have heeded his advice and developed toward the Yangtze and Huai. In that case, their Great Han would not be confined to a mere two provinces as it was today.

As for Liu Xuan and Liu Yong, those two kinsmen were already on their way to Pengcheng as captives…

Liu Xiu merely smiled and said: "Then may I ask, sir, among the various lords of the realm today, is there anyone who understands the greater picture?"

Huan Tan waved a hand dismissively. "Zhang Bu, King of Qi, and Qin Feng, King of Chu — they collapsed in an instant. Neither is worth mentioning."

"As for Gongsun Shu in Shu, I met him briefly in my early years. Though he proclaimed himself emperor early on and, having obtained the Imperial Heirloom Seal, trumpeted it far and wide, styling himself the White Emperor, he is merely bowing his mud-smeared head while holding jade — at most, he can rely on natural barriers to protect himself for a time."

Huan Tan cupped his hands toward Liu Xiu. "Thus, of all the emperors and kings under Heaven who can understand the greater picture, there are only Your Majesty and Diwu Boyu."

"Your Majesty did not slacken because your brother was pushed aside by Liu Xuan. With one battle at Kunyang, your fame spread across the realm."

"Without military power in your hands, you slipped away into the Huai region, moved through Jiangdong, and gained a foothold. With your tiger-warriors and death-defying soldiers, you fought and suddenly destroyed the King of Huainan. You were able to ally with scholars and powerful houses, and under the banner of resisting the Red Eyebrows, you became master of Xu and Yang provinces."

Huan Tan had been right there in Huainan. Liu Xiu had started late, but every step he took was placed with extreme precision. Without haste or panic, he consolidated each step, and thus achieved his present position.

"If that were all, it would be one thing. But from what I have seen, Your Majesty harbors great wisdom and strategy in your heart, and you employ men fittingly. With Wang Ba in Jiangdong and Hou Ba in Huainan, provisions flow without cease, and their governance suits the times. Thus the people and ministers are happy and content. I would say Your Majesty's hegemony in this southeastern land has already surpassed that of Fuchai and can be mentioned in the same breath as Liu Bi, King of Wu — falling short only of Xiang Yu."

Was that praise? To use Liu Bi, King of Wu, as a comparison in the end — that was practically an insult!

Liu Xiu calmed his furious ministers and said with a smile: "Had Liu Bi not mishandled his military campaigns back then, he too might have contended for the central plains. The overturned cart ahead serves as a warning to the cart behind. I shall take this as Lord Huan's remonstrance."

He looked again at Huan Tan. "Since I am fortunate enough to be deemed by you, sir, as one who understands the greater picture, the other person must surely be Diwu Boyu?"

Huan Tan nodded but said not another word.

Liu Xiu found this strange. "Why does the gentleman not continue?"

Huan Tan actually replied: "I fear that once I begin, I would speak in torrents. I have a long history with Boyu. I saw with my own eyes how he, from a mere youth, little by little accumulated manpower, recruited gallant heroes, established a foothold in Wei, and ultimately was able to overthrow the Xin dynasty and sweep across the northern provinces."

What happened to "a scholar of the countryside"? Huan Tan's reversal was far too drastic. But it was precisely because of this that Diwu Lun had so vastly exceeded his expectations, stirring in Huan Tan a sense of anticipation.

"There is a game in this world called weiqi. Diwu Lun's conduct is like that of a master player. His moves seem casual, but in truth, every step is calculated, as if he can see ten or a hundred moves ahead. In the end, he prevails through stratagem and attains the Dao."

"Compared to him, Your Majesty started somewhat later and could only block and intercept, seizing advantages where you could, relying on circumstances to win."

These words left Liu Xiu deeply moved. "I understand now. The gentleman still intends to return north. This petty southeast cannot keep a great talent like you, sir."

Huan Tan said: "Indeed. These past days, I have been honored by Your Majesty's feasts and hospitality, and this old man has eaten his fill of meat. Today, I have come precisely to take my leave of Your Majesty and beg permission to go to the State of Wei."

Apart from his concern for Diwu Lun, who was both his friend and, in a sense, his disciple, Huan Tan had also heard that Wang Mang had not yet died. This was another reason he was eager to go north and join Diwu Lun — a public referendum on a tyrant's life or death, a trial on behalf of Heaven! Huan Junshan was never one to shy away from grand events and hoped to witness this unprecedented affair.

"Uncle!"

No sooner had the words left his mouth than Huan Rong, who had been kneeling nearby all along, hastily interjected: "The King of Wu is the true Son of Heaven! The apocryphal Red Cinnabar Talisman proves it!"

Huan Tan understood his nephew's mind. It was not only that he had been charmed by Liu Xiu's humble treatment of scholars and his magnanimity, but also that most of the Longkang Huan clan had fled to Huainan, right in Liu Xiu's territory. They had no choice but to serve him.

But what the hell did that have to do with him? Although he was the most renowned member of the clan, Huan Tan had never wanted to shoulder the responsibilities of a clan head and had politely declined several times.

In the Xin dynasty, Huan Tan, like Yang Xiong, had first placed his hopes in Wang Mang and then been disappointed. But that did not mean their generation's dream of pursuing great peace was shattered. Huan Tan felt that with Diwu Lun, there was still a chance!

So he burst out laughing: "Don't forget Wang Mang's Fourth Folly of Ignoring the Greater Good — that was my true counsel to the King. And what's more..."

Huan Tan declared with proud disdain: "I do not read prophecies, nor do I believe in them!"

"From the Duke of Zhou and Confucius onward, the foundation has always been benevolence, righteousness, and the upright Way. Strange and unfounded matters they kept at a respectful distance. The workings of Heaven and the nature of life — even the sages could not fully explain them, much less the shallow scholars of later ages. How could they possibly comprehend such things? Those cunning opportunists among the fangshi, fabricating charts and books, forging apocryphal prophecies to deceive the greedy and corrupt, leading rulers astray — they have already duped Wang Mang. Should the world not take this as a lesson?"

"Does Your Majesty truly expect that in future battles with Wei, chanting prophetic texts will cause Heaven to send down thunderbolts to strike Diwu Lun dead?"

Liu Xiu understood this perfectly well, of course. But wasn't he forced to rely on prophecies to prop up his legitimacy precisely because his real strength was lacking? Did this arrogant scholar have to blurt it out and puncture the pretense?

At these words, Wu Han and the other officials in the hall could endure no more. Several military officers rose cursing and demanded Liu Xiu hand the insolent scholar over to them to deal with — they guaranteed they'd flay a layer of skin off him!

Yet Liu Xiu still took no offense. "Since Master Huan's mind is made up to leave, why force him to stay?"

He clapped his hands and ordered men to prepare a full retinue of carriages, horses, gifts, and travel funds, and assigned trusted personnel to escort Huan Tan westward to Suiyang in Liang territory. By now, Wei and Wu shared a border, roughly demarcated by the three-hundred-li Mangdang Mountains, with heavy troops stationed on both sides. Yet neither had any desire to fight. There was no helping it — between the two states, countless remnant Red Eyebrow bandits still roamed and rampaged, and many areas had become no-man's-lands where even grain supplies could not be brought up. There was simply no way to wage war.

Liu Xiu even personally escorted Huan Tan out of the city. At the inner gate, he said: "I only wish you a smooth journey, sir. My sole hope is that when you reach Chang'an, you might convey a single sentence on my behalf to Diwu Boyu..."

Just two days after Huan Tan's departure, another party arrived outside Pengcheng. It was a procession sent under escort by Liu Xiu's general on the western front — a convoy flying multicolored banners. It turned out to be an envoy delegation from Diwu Lun.

Now that the fog of misapprehension between the two sides had lifted, the exchange of envoys was hardly surprising. Liu Xiu could send word via Huan Tan, and Diwu Lun could certainly dispatch men of his own.

However, the relationship between the two states remained unresolved — were they irreconcilable foes, Han and traitor, or something else? So Liu Xiu did not rashly receive them. He merely had his own brother-in-law, the Superintendent of the Imperial Household, Governor of Chu Commandery Deng Chen, host them outside the city.

But what no one had expected was that the young gentleman-attendant sent from the other side was none other than Yin Lihua's younger brother — Yin Xing!

Thanks to his elder sister's devoted instruction, Yin Xing had sat the examinations the year before last and placed on the second-rank list, becoming the youngest successful candidate. Since then, he had been serving in minor posts at court.

Strangely, Diwu Lun had neither given him important responsibilities nor cold-shouldered him, employing him at this neither-high-nor-low level all along. Only just before returning west recently had he suddenly promoted Yin Xing and entrusted him with a critical mission.

Deng Chen's feelings were complicated. The capture of Yin Lihua and her brother by Dou Rong's forces had been a consequence of the defeat at Little Chang'an, and his own wife had perished when Xinye fell. His elder sister's misfortune and his betrothed's capture were two of the three greatest regrets of Liu Xiu's life.

Deng Chen had been from the same county as the Yin family and had often visited their home for banquets and feasts in ordinary times. He remembered Yin Xing as a small, frail child back then. Now, unseen for five years, the boy was still only seventeen, yet clad in the full robes and cap of a gentleman-attendant, his expression solemn and grave, looking remarkably precocious.

"Junling, it has been years since we last met..."

Before Deng Chen, full of old sentiment, could ask after the siblings' current circumstances, Yin Xing spoke up stiffly, as if he did not remember Deng Chen at all.

"The Wei envoy Yin Xing, bearing His Majesty's edict, comes to seek an audience with the King of Wu, Liu Xiu."

Seeing the other party's strictly businesslike manner, Deng Chen also hardened his expression. "Our two states have not yet established relations. It is not appropriate for the King to receive an envoy directly. State your business, and I shall relay it on his behalf."

Diwu Lun had long anticipated this and had not insisted that Yin Xing must present his message to Liu Xiu in person. So Yin Xing proceeded to declare his purpose.

"His Majesty declares: Since the fall of the false Xin, four years have now passed. The feudal lords stand divided, and all under Heaven suffers. Fathers and sons wander as refugees, husbands and wives are torn apart. Homes lie in ruins, fields run wild with weeds. Pestilence spreads unchecked, and calamities and portents arise in swarms."

"His Majesty raised righteous troops, smote the mob of villains. The various Han claimants have successively been destroyed, the Red Eyebrows have bowed their heads and been captured, and the north is largely pacified. Yet the people of the borderlands have had their livers and brains smeared upon the ground, and the number of dead is no less than the greater half. His Majesty, pitying the common people's suffering, is unwilling to take up arms again. And recalling the old bond of exchanged jade with Liu Wenshu, he therefore wishes to turn swords into jade and silk."

"Thus he has sent me to meet with you, to invite Liu Xiu to court. His Majesty intends to enfeoff Liu Xiu as one of the Two Princes and Three Revered Houses, to carry on the sacrifices of the Former Han altars, so that the blood-offerings shall not be cut off."

"And to appoint Liu Xiu as 'General Who Subdues the East.'"

Yin Xing raised his voice and cried out the four words so loudly that even Liu Xiu inside the city could hear them: "His enfeoffed title shall be... 'King of Wu of Great Wei!'"