Chapter 660: Winter Is Coming

"It is as Your Majesty says: in the time of Emperor Wu of Han, the climate was warm and moist, and places like Hexi and Bingzhou were not so bitterly cold, so the empire could move three hundred thousand people to garrison the frontier."

"During the reigns of Emperor Zhao and Emperor Xuan, there were likewise no great disasters. Even in distant outposts like Luntai beyond the frontier, troops could open farms and till the soil. That was how the Han opened the Western Regions and established the Protectorate."

If Diwu Lun had not ordered the astronomers to investigate this thoroughly, Huan Tan would never have thought along these lines. Now that it had been pointed out, it was true — the climate over these past few decades had indeed been growing steadily colder.

The change began in the time of Emperor Yuan of Han. Emperor Yuan was a luckless man; his reign was sixteen years of virtually unbroken natural disaster. The year he ascended the throne, eleven commanderies and kingdoms east of the passes suffered catastrophic floods. The people starved; men ate one another.

In the spring of the second year, an earthquake struck Longxi, toppling city walls, destroying ancestral temples, crushing and killing the populace. That autumn, another quake struck — mountains split, the earth cracked, springs gushed forth, the North Sea flooded, the people were plunged into misery and fled in all directions. In the third year of Chuyuan, drought — and an uprising in Zhuya, with counties everywhere in revolt. In the fifth year of Chuyuan, a "strange star" appeared; the sun grew dim and murky, the harvest failed, and killing frosts spread far and wide.

This gentle Son of Heaven held a realm beset by calamity after calamity, which left Emperor Yuan of Han "trembling with dread, reflecting on his faults day and night, daring not to rest in ease." He cut back his meals, reduced the use of the imperial park horses, and disbanded the Music Bureau, his heart full of one thought: "Once I change the era name, surely it will not go on like this?"

Yet the first year of Yongguang was even worse: spring frosts, summer cold, the sun a dull disk without light, famine across the land, wild game vanishing beyond the frontier, the Xiongnu people starving, and the Chanyu Huhanye sending desperate pleas for grain. This time, Emperor Yuan refused to take the blame upon himself and, for a rare moment, hardened his expression. He issued an edict censuring his ministers for dereliction of duty, and Chancellor Yu Dingguo resigned, citing the portents and disasters as his fault.

But a dynasty has its own cycles, and nature has its own laws. The changing climate did not end with some minister's resignation. The gradually cooling, drying weather continued to torment Emperor Yuan and Emperor Cheng of Han for decades. Consorts and ministers took the blame one after another — some even took their own lives over it…

By the time Emperor Ai of Han took the throne, the government was growing ever darker and more corrupt. Under the twin blows of natural and man-made calamities, the common people had already fallen into the "seven destructions and seven deaths."

This was the era when Huan Tan entered official service: "Wang Mang and the Confucian scholars held that the Way of Han was impure, its allotted fate exhausted. A change of dynasty, they believed, would end it all — human governance would be harmonious, and Heaven and Earth would send timely winds and rains."

The result, needless to say, was that after Wang Mang took power, the disasters grew even more numerous. Rice, which had been grown in the northern commanderies since the Spring and Autumn period, could no longer produce grain. The bamboo groves of Guanzhong died off in great swaths. The shores of the Bohai Sea began to freeze over year after year — all signs that the climate was turning colder and drier. And Wang Mang, as if stomping on the accelerator down a downhill slope, drove the chaos that ultimately brought the Xin Dynasty to collapse.

Diwu Lun laughed. "So the world then decided that it was Wang Mang's perverse misrule that made the Yellow River burst its banks, threw yin and yang out of balance, and brought great cold and drought upon the land. Now the Xin has been dead for over ten years, and the north has still not improved. I hear that Liu Xiu's State Preceptor, Qiang Hua, has lately shifted the blame onto my head."

Fortunately, Diwu Lun had not taken that old path — rising to power on auspicious signs, then deflecting blame with yin-yang and portent theories. Otherwise, he would now find himself in an exceedingly awkward position.

"Only now do I understand: the Han emperors, consorts, empresses, maternal relatives, barbarians, and ministers who were blamed for this, time and again over the past decades, in truth bore no responsibility for the disorder of yin and yang. Because this is, and always was, part of Heaven's constant course!"

Before Diwu Lun crossed over, he had heard the famous name of the "Little Ice Age." He never imagined he would end up living through it himself.

Once this fact was confirmed by the calendrical records of the former dynasty and the disaster reports of the past ten years, even Huan Tan felt a suffocating despair pressing down on him: "If it has nothing to do with human affairs, then when will it ever turn for the better?"

Diwu Lun rolled his eyes. "Heaven knows!"

What they were facing was a vast transformation that would not shift with human will — a mere faint fluctuation within a great ice age. Perhaps it had already reached its end; perhaps it was only just beginning, with the coldest peak still far, far ahead. It might last a hundred years, or two hundred, or three or four hundred. For all they knew, it would not rebound until the Sui and Tang periods of later history.

But Diwu Lun was not so pessimistic. Cold as the climate had been these past ten years, it was really only cold compared to the Qin and Han eras; measured against later ages, it was about the same.

"It still comes back to that saying: respond with good order, and there is good fortune; respond with chaos, and there is calamity."

"Strengthen the foundations and use resources sparingly, and Heaven cannot impoverish you. Nourish what is ready and act in season, and Heaven cannot afflict you. Follow the Dao and never waver, and Heaven cannot bring disaster upon you!"

He had heard that for every degree the temperature drops, agricultural grain yields fall by ten percent. So they had to develop productive capacity to make up the gap. And to ensure the dynasty he had built with his own hands could survive until the next warm period, they also had to improve the relations of production, to keep it from collapsing too quickly. On both these roads, he was an ox hauling a heavy cart — the burden was great and the way was long.

"There is a third way."

Diwu Lun fixed his gaze on the open doors of the court hall, as though he could see the remedy that would save the desperate situation: "Advance south!"

…

"Only a wise man like Junshan can grasp that the cooling climate is Heaven's constant course. If the ignorant masses were told, they might be deceived by Liu Xiu and his ministers proclaiming that 'Wei's Fifth lacks virtue, and so yin and yang are more disordered than under Wang Mang.' For now, this matter must not be made public."

After today's audience ended, Huan Tan could return to his scholarly pursuits, but Diwu Lun still had to perch his crude spectacles on the bridge of his nose and keep reading the mountain of memorials piled before him.

These had already been sifted through once by the Imperial Secretariat, yet they were still so numerous. He was thirty-three this year. Thanks to diligent exercise, his body was not in bad shape, but his eyesight was growing steadily worse. Reading by candlelight at night was truly no fit task for a human being. Diwu Lun felt that in his lifetime, he would most likely never again bask in the glow of electric light.

The year's end was approaching, and there had been no great matters of late — save for one memorial that, when he turned to it, angered Diwu Lun considerably.

It was a memorial from the "Grand General Who Guards the North," Wu Han. Diwu Lun had carved out Hexi and, together with the frontier regions of Bingzhou, formed a "Northwestern Military District" facing the Xiongnu directly, under Wu Han's sole command, with the two Inspectors of Bing and Liang assisting and overseeing him.

"'Memorial Requesting the Recovery of Shuofang and Wuyuan'?" With Wu Han's level of learning, just getting the title written clearly was an achievement. Diwu Lun cursed, "I wonder who he found to ghostwrite for him this time."

Sure enough, read carefully, the memorial proved to be a piece of vigorous prose.

"Now Shuofang in Bingzhou and the other territories are the strategic hubs of the empire and the bulwark of the state, as recorded in the Rites of Zhou. In the thirty-third year of the First Emperor of Qin, he sent Meng Tian to drive out the Xiongnu, seize the lands south of the river, establish forty-four counties, build the Great Wall, and cross the river to occupy the Yin Mountains, winding far to the north. During the Chu-Han conflict, the Xiongnu waxed strong again, seized the chance to cross the river south, and sought to reclaim the lands Meng Tian had taken, becoming a great border menace, their beacon fires visible from Ganquan Palace."

"In the second year of Yuanshuo under Emperor Wu of Han, the Xiongnu were driven out, and Wei Qing and others were dispatched across the Western River, past Gaoque, to recover the lands south of the river. Zhufu Yan argued: the lands south of the river are fertile and rich, protected by the river on the outside. They can be walled to expel the Xiongnu, saving on transport and supply shipments within, expanding the Central Kingdom — this is the root of border defense. Thus Shuofang City was built, and the old frontier fortifications that Meng Tian of Qin had made were repaired, using the river as a natural stronghold. From the building of Shuofang, the Xiongnu began to decline, and thereafter they came to court in Han."

"By the time of Wang Mang, with his perverse misrule, Xihe, Yunzhong, Shuofang, and Wuyuan were all laid waste. The Xiongnu revived, propped up Lu Fang, and ran rampant for a decade. Though Lu Fang was executed and his head hung at the Residence for Barbarians, and though Yanmen and Dai commanderies surrendered to our dynasty, the four commanderies of Shuofang, Wuyuan, Yunzhong, and Dingxiang remain in Xiongnu hands and are a menace to this day."

"Your servant has defended the frontier for many years and has observed that the Hetao is a vast expanse of fertile wilderness, rich in water and grass, its soil suited to farming and herding. The Xiongnu, holding it, can graze livestock and train warhorses, raid Shang Commandery to the south, and threaten Guanzhong. Should they once collude with Gongsun Shu and invade southward, the whole realm would be thrown into turmoil. Your servant believes we should follow the example of the First Emperor of Qin and Emperor Wu of Han: drive the barbarians north of the Yin Mountains, rebuild the cities and settlements, establish military farms, and keep the enemy beyond the border. This is the strategy of absolute security!"

It seemed Wu Han had spent heavily this time and found himself a fine writing brush. The memorial sounded impressive, but in Diwu Lun's view, Wu Han had once again fallen prey to his greatest flaw: he had no sense of the larger picture!

"Bingzhou is the northern gate of Guanzhong. Of course it is important, and of course it must be recovered — but absolutely not right now."

Having confirmed that he was living in a "Little Ice Age," Diwu Lun was only more convinced of this view. "Vast expanse of fertile wilderness, rich in water and grass, soil suited to farming and herding" — he had spent time in the New Qin-lands himself and knew that such phrases might have held true in the time of Emperor Wu of Han, but now they were somewhat overblown. The Hetao had once been able to grow rice; now its grain output was far below what it had been. Add to that the devastation of war, the people fleeing or being relocated, and even if they won a decisive battle with the Xiongnu and reoccupied the four commanderies, keeping an army of over a hundred thousand alive on the frontier long-term would be an immense problem. With the climate growing colder and drier, maintaining control of Bingzhou would be a financial black hole…

To say nothing of the fact that, with Wu and Shu still standing, going all-out against a unified Xiongnu empire using only the north was a recipe for playing out the "Romance of the Four Kingdoms" for a very long time.

"Times have changed, and the climate has changed. Wei cannot walk the old road of the Former Han. Our future lies not in the north, not in the Western Regions — but in the south!"

And so poor Wu Han's memorial, painstakingly written with a hired ghostwriter, was "retained at court." The Emperor would encourage him but would not adopt his proposal. General Wu would have to wait until his hair turned white in Bingzhou before he might finally get his chance to strike back at the Xiongnu. When that day came, the pent-up ferocity of many years would likely be unleashed upon the barbarians' heads in full…

The five-year period of recuperation was over. After five years of rest, arms and armor were ready, and the people had somewhat recovered. It was time to carry the great enterprise of unification through to the end.

Winter is coming — it hung over his head like a sharp blade, giving Diwu Lun one more reason to march south.

But which target to strike first? The three great generals Diwu Lun had placed along the north-south dividing line each held a different view.

As the New Year's Day of the tenth year of Wude approached, Weiyang Palace bustled with preparations for a grand celebration ceremony, but Diwu Lun sat in a tightly shut chamber, studying the three cards in his hand…

Grand General Who Guards the South, Cen Peng, commanded overall military affairs in Yuzhou and northern Jing — effectively the "Central Plains Military District." Facing the two fronts of Chengjia's Ba Commandery and the Eastern Han's southern Jing, he had wanted to strike at the Jianghan Plain five years ago. If Wu and Shu contested it fiercely, it could trigger a great decisive battle. If Wu and Shu held steady, once the Wei army took Jiangling, it could sever the link between Wu and Shu and then defeat them one by one.

Grand General of Chariots and Cavalry, Geng Bozhao, commanded overall military affairs in Xuzhou — effectively the "Eastern Military District." Young Geng had long eyed Huainan hungrily. He believed the Wei army's sharp edge could drive straight for Jiangdu; to defend that place, Liu Xiu would have no choice but to fight a decisive battle with Wei in Huainan. If Liu Xiu abandoned his provisional capital and retreated to Jiangdong, they could further squeeze his power — once he lost Huainan, Liu Xiu would never again amount to anything, even if he had sent Deng Yu to seize Jiaozhou years ago while Diwu Lun was destroying Lu Fang and subduing the Qiang and Hu tribes.

Last was Grand General of the Swift Cavalry, Ma Yuan, still guarding Longyou, but with his headquarters now at Yongcheng in Right Fufeng. Using Wudu Commandery, seized five years before, he had already crossed the Qinling Mountains and directly threatened the gateway to Ba-Shu: Hanzhong. Ma Yuan vigorously petitioned to strike Hanzhong first, which would reduce the troops needed to garrison Guanzhong and prepare the way for the final destruction of Gongsun Shu…

He looked at the borders of the three warring states on the map, at the pieces representing Cen Peng, Young Geng, and Ma Yuan — "Soldier," "Chariot," "Horse" — fine objects carved in yellow jade from Wang Mang's time.

The horse piece reared with its front hooves in the air, as if galloping, able to leap over the hardest obstacles and land where the enemy least expected. The chariot piece had wheels and bore a fluttering banner, ready at any moment to roll across the board in all directions. The soldier piece knelt in a half-crouch, holding halberd and shield — it liked to advance steadily, step by step, eating away at the enemy.

Diwu Lun pondered for a long while, then thought to himself: This campaign concerns the unification of all under Heaven. It is no mere local struggle — pull one hair and the whole body moves. Liu Xiu has lain low for years, sleeping on brushwood and tasting gall; he cannot be engaged lightly. Nor can the three generals each fight their own war. They must strike in sequence, mixing feint and real, to keep the enemy forces in motion.

He slowly lifted the "Horse" that represented Ma Yuan and slammed it down hard on the upper reaches of the Han River!

"Strike Hanzhong first! Force Gongsun Shu to rush north in panic to its aid, so that the Shu troops have no leisure to move on Jiangling!"