Chapter 464: The Time to Enter Guanzhong

In truth, even without Yang Guangyuan's report, Yelu Deguang was already preparing to march south again.

Yelu Deguang was also very well aware of the various natural disasters that had occurred within the Later Jin's territory.

For one very simple reason: the disasters within the Later Jin's territory were most severe in Zhenzhou and Dingzhou.

And both of those places bordered Youzhou, which had been ceded to the Khitan — and the floods and droughts Youzhou suffered were in no way less severe than those in Zhenzhou and Dingzhou.

Still, the Khitan's ability to govern was somewhat better than the Later Jin's.

Before they obtained the Sixteen Prefectures of Yan-Yun, back in Yelu Abaoji's time, the Khitan had already conquered Pingzhou, Yingzhou, and other places in Liaodong that had originally belonged to the Great Tang.

Liaodong had originally been the prosperous heart of the Lulong Military Governor's domain, with vast tracts of military farmland — it only lacked Han people who knew how to farm.

So these days, Yelu Deguang was also busy relocating disaster victims, moving the people of Youzhou, who had been hit hardest, to the sparsely populated Yingzhou and Pingzhou areas of Liaodong.

But make no mistake — the common people of the Sixteen Prefectures of Yan-Yun did not gain a blessing in disguise, because the Khitan themselves had also suffered from the disasters. This was the Khitan's Great Liao, and they would certainly look after their own people first.

Thus, Yelu Deguang's relocation of disaster victims was more like a death march. The old, weak, sick, and disabled died all along the road, and only the strong men and healthy women survived.

One can only say that compared to the Later Jin court's total neglect and its continued pressing for autumn taxes, what the Khitan did was somewhat better.

And once the disaster victims had been relocated, the attack on the Later Jin was immediately put on Yelu Deguang's agenda.

Because for him, there was now one troublesome point: this war, ostensibly a punitive campaign against the Later Jin court, had been turned by Yelu Deguang into a war he could not afford to lose — a war he had to win.

Because before the great war, in order to firm up the resolve of the various Khitan tribes to support his southward march, Yelu Deguang had, to a slight degree, deliberately allowed the Later Jin court to insult him.

That one line spoken by Jing Yanguang — "If the old man wants war, then come to war; someday the grandson will not be able to stop the world from laughing" — had stamped upon Yelu Deguang a mark he could not retreat from.

Because if he, in the name of the great Khitan nation and with the dignity of a grandfather, still could not defeat the wind-tossed, rain-battered Shi Chonggui,

then within the Khitan realm, where everything is decided by strength, Yelu Deguang's prestige would suffer a devastating blow. There might even be people rising in rebellion, rising to oppose him.

So Yelu Deguang not only had to continue attacking the Later Jin, he had to win — ideally, he had to be able to destroy the Later Jin entirely. Otherwise, the indulgence he had shown before the war would rebound upon him with redoubled force.

And it was precisely because of this behavior of Yelu Deguang's that Zhang Zhao saw through the Khitan completely — and in particular, saw the paper-tiger face of Yelu Deguang.

Because in the first war between Jin and Liao, Yelu Deguang had clearly already achieved the "know your enemy" part.

He could have advanced steadily and surely, swallowing up the Later Jin's prefectures and counties north of the Yellow River step by step, and then, taking advantage of the Yellow River's winter freeze, crossed south of the river — and the great enterprise would have been settled.

But Yelu Deguang did not do that. He had seen clearly the Later Jin's weakness, but he could not see clearly his own strength.

He thought he could easily destroy the Later Jin, but in reality, the Khitan at that time simply did not have that capability.

And so Yelu Deguang, not knowing himself, underestimated the enemy and advanced recklessly, ordering Zhao Yanshou to lead fifty thousand troops straight through to Beizhou — and he even dared to split his forces to attack Liu Zhiyuan in Hedong.

As a result, the Khitan's army of over a hundred thousand, without a secure rear, rushed into battle.

Beneath Qicheng, in two great battles, they could not win — and they were even in danger of being caught in a pincer attack by the Later Jin's army.

In the end, they had no choice but to abandon their baggage and flee. In killed and captured officers and men alone, the losses reached over thirty thousand.

The battle of Qicheng produced two extremely serious consequences.

First, the officers and soldiers of the Later Jin court no longer feared the Khitan — they even became somewhat eager, itching to test themselves against the Khitan.

Second, it let Zhang Zhao see completely through the true strength and weakness of the Khitan army.

Zhang Zhao discovered that when the Khitan faced the Central Plains yabing guards and yabing officers — who had been forged through constant, poison-cultivating warfare from the end of the Tang all the way to the Later Jin — their only remaining advantage was mobility.

And Zhang Zhao's Great Liang army happened to be in no way lacking in mobility.

So after calculations by the Qionglin Academy of Liang and a group of military officers, it was determined that if the Khitan penetrated deep into the Central Plains, there was an extremely high probability they would be defeated by the Great Liang army.

But precisely because Yelu Deguang had lost so much face last time, the great war between Jin and Liao was now destined to stop only when one side fell.

Moreover, although the first southward campaign had cost over thirty thousand troops, the bulk of those losses were Xi people and Zhao Yanshou's former Lulong Han army.

The Khitan's own core force lost fewer than a thousand men — and so Yelu Deguang still believed he could enter and master the Central Plains.

In the eighth year of Tianfu of the Later Jin, 943 CE, at the end of the ninth month, Yelu Deguang once again held the shooting-the-ghost-arrow and burning-wood heaven-sacrifice ceremony outside Youzhou.

This time, the Khitan Emperor, having finally learned his lesson, did not split his forces to attack Liu Zhiyuan in Hedong.

He even sent men specially, before marching south, to secretly contact Liu Zhiyuan, hinting that as long as Liu Zhiyuan did not make rash moves, the Khitan army would not attack Hedong.

This move exactly suited Liu Zhiyuan's intentions. He hastily summoned Guo Wei, Wang Jun, Guo Congyi, Guo Chongwei, and more than ten other generals to deliberate.

And he brought out the appointment letter in which Shi Chonggui had promoted and appointed him as Acting Grand Marshal and Commander-in-Chief of the Northern Front.

Guo Wei, seeing this, stepped to Liu Zhiyuan's side and gave a cold laugh. "The Son of Heaven actually dares to hand the defense of Hebei, Shandong, and Henan to the Grand Marshal? Surely there must be some other arrangement?"

Liu Zhiyuan was very satisfied that Guo Wei had used the word "dares." The current situation was that Shi Chonggui wanted to use him, Liu Zhiyuan, but did not dare to.

And Liu Zhiyuan indeed had no good intentions. If Shi Chonggui truly dared to hand him the defense of the lands north of the Yellow River, what he would get in return would certainly not be Liu Zhiyuan's loyalty.

"Naturally he does not dare. Even if he did, Feng Dao, Sang Weihan, and the others would talk him out of it.

That brat appoints me Commander-in-Chief of the Northern Front on one hand, yet on the other appoints that incompetent Du Chongwei as Chief Commissioner of Expeditions, holding all military authority.

In days to come, the great affairs of the state will surely be ruined in this man's hands."

As for Du Chongwei, Liu Zhiyuan could not have held him in greater contempt. Even in the old days when Shi Jingtang was alive, he had dared to curse Du Chongwei to his face — now he dared even more.

The room fell somewhat silent, because that word "brat" Liu Zhiyuan had just uttered was aimed at Shi Chonggui.

"If that is so, the Grand Marshal cannot send out troops. Because military authority is held in Du Chongwei's hands, and once troops are sent out, it is very likely Du Chongwei will do us harm."

After a cold silence lasting half a cup of tea, it was Wang Jun, Liu Zhiyuan's important confidant, who began to speak.

Liu Zhiyuan lowered his eyelids and slowly nodded.

The dozen or so civil officials and military officers in the room were all his trusted men. Although none of them said he should not have called Shi Chonggui a brat, none of them hurried over to voice support either, to say he had cursed well.

It seemed the hearts of the Jin court's men were not yet entirely lost. He could not act too hastily.

"We certainly cannot send out troops. Our Hedong sons have their own Hedong sons' heavy duty. Yelu Deguang has always been crafty, and his words cannot be fully trusted.

Xiufeng, take three thousand cavalry north to Yanmen in Daizhou, and guard against the Khitan coming south again."

Xiurong was Wang Jun's courtesy name. The lesson of the last time, when the Wei King had led troops to break through Yanmen, was right before his eyes — this time Liu Zhiyuan also meant to guard against Yelu Deguang.

"Wenzhong, you must make a bit of an effort and go comfort Bai Chengfu's forces. These Tuyuhun people are our left and right arms — nothing must go wrong with them."

Wenzhong was Guo Wei's courtesy name. Having finished instructing Wang Jun, Liu Zhiyuan then gave his instructions to Guo Wei.

At this time, Bai Chengfu had not yet revealed his weakness — that he could not fully control the hundred thousand or so people of the Tuyuhun tribe — so Liu Zhiyuan still relied on him quite heavily.

And Guo Wei also understood Liu Zhiyuan's meaning: nothing could be allowed to go wrong. This did not mean guarding against Bai Chengfu's Tuyuhun people migrating away, but guarding against their being drawn over by the Later Jin court — or even being pulled back by the Khitan. That was not impossible either.

"Rest assured, Grand Commandant. I shall go at once to see Bai Chengfu, Bai Kejiu, and the others."

Liu Zhiyuan decided to wait and watch, but within the state of Liang, the surging clamor for war seemed all but unstoppable.

The urgent dispatch Zhang Zhao received below Dazhen Pass was precisely the news that Yelu Deguang was mobilizing troops and preparing to march south.

And once word of the Khitan advance south arrived, all of Liang, high and low, grew excited, deeming it a superb opportunity.

For at this moment, every civil and military official in Liang believed that Liang possessed the strength to defeat the Khitan Liao state on the Central Plains.

They could seize Guanzhong at a stroke, crush the state of Jin in a pincer from two sides, and then fight the Khitan to the death on the Central Plains.

Zhang Zhao, however, knew that this was still not the moment, because in this great battle the Later Jin army would blaze with dazzling brilliance — it would be nearly the most glorious battle fought by the yabing guards of the entire Five Dynasties.

From a position of absolute disadvantage, they would batter Yelu Deguang until he fled almost alone on camelback, and the eighty thousand Khitan troops would lose over half their number.

It would even set off a wave of dread of Jin within the Khitan army: a retreating Khitan force of more than ten thousand, having heard somewhere a false rumor that the Jin army was upon them, would collapse of its own accord, and several hundred would die trampled underfoot.

If Zhang Zhao were to plunge headlong into Guanzhong and draw the Jin army over, he would truly be taking the thunderbolt for Yelu Deguang.

Men like Du Chongwei would hope for Yelu Deguang to invest them as Emperor of the Central Plains, but they would never believe that Zhang Zhao would invest them as Emperor of the Central Plains.

Once Zhang Zhao entered Guanzhong, everything would spin out of control.

In the city of Tianshui, ever since Yan Jin had been transferred to the post of Commander-in-Chief of Xiongwu Garrison, Zhang Zhao had basically only been able to see him a few times each year, whenever Yan Jin returned to Liangzhou.

This great general, once the man Zhang Zhao had relied on most, had grown ever more steady and composed.

Over these years, under Zhang Zhao's direction, Yan Jin had all but drained dry the Fengxiang and Fengzhou territories of the Prince of Qin, Li Congyan.

By now Li Congyan had only an empty title. Apart from a few hundred yabing guards kept for his own protection, the elite of the Fengxiang army had long since been wholly absorbed by Xiongwu Garrison, and the makeweights had gone home to become farmers. To swallow these two places, one need only lift a finger.

Moreover, Chengzhou and Jiezhou west of Fengxiang Prefecture — the later Longnan in Gansu — had long since been cut off from contact with the Later Jin court.

Although because Meng Shu had stuck a hand into Jiezhou they had not yet moved to seize it, most of the land had already fallen into Liang's hands.

Zhang Zhao, all smiles, told Yan Jin not to stand on ceremony, and even took him by the hand and sat him down.

This Yan Jin was now, one might say, first among the military nobility, a man of the original-followers faction, and the guardian of Liang's gateway to Guanzhong.

If Zhang Zhao wanted to override all objections and not enter Guanzhong lightly, he had to persuade him first.

But before he could open his mouth, Yan Jin spoke first: "Heavenly King, your servant has long been in Qinzhou and knows the situation in Guanzhong well. I therefore make bold to offer counsel: the time to take Guanzhong has not yet come."

Ah! What a coincidence. Zhang Zhao had prepared a whole set of arguments to persuade Yan Jin, and to his surprise, Yan Jin was already against entering Guanzhong.

"Speak, then. The other generals are all in Hexi and Longyou; you alone know the true state of Guanzhong."

As Zhang Zhao gestured for Yan Jin to speak, he also sent Xue Shouli out to call in Murong Xinzhang, Fan Shun, and the other officers who had come with him.

"In this present natural disaster, though the Jin court has pressed the people excessively hard, if one counts back over the years since the Great Tang's decline, such years of disaster with taxes still being extorted are hardly rare.

The common people may now be suffering, but the local yabing guards have instead grown fat on it, and the Jin court has thereby gained a million shi of grain, with ample military supplies.

Thus, though popular grievances rise on every side, the army has not been thrown into disorder. The great calamity will come next year; this year, by contrast, things have settled down."

Zhang Zhao nodded, thoughtful. He understood Yan Jin's meaning.

He was saying that although the Later Jin had pushed the common people into the abyss, it had secured the army's supplies.

In this age of warriors, so long as the soldiers were fed and did not rise in revolt, the state could be said to be at peace.

As for the mass deaths among the common people, the ruined farmland, and the rest — those aftereffects would not appear until the autumn of next year, or even the autumn of the year after. Only then would the great famine arrive.

Seeing that Zhang Zhao had taken it in, Yan Jin continued.

"And in the army, because of the last battle at Qicheng, they have instead gained confidence. The officers have had the Khitan pressing down on their heads for years now, and have long wanted to vent their anger.

An Shenqi, Gao Xingzhou, Fu Yanqing, Huangfu Yu, Murong Yanchao, Xue Huairang, Yao Yuanfu, Wang Zhou, and the rest — all are brave commanders.

In this humble officer's view, the Khitan may not come out well from this march south."

"Envoy Yan speaks reason. The Jin army is valiant, no less than the Khitan troops, and bears many grievances against the Khitan. When battle comes, they will surely be united, high and low. If my uncle Yelu is the least bit careless, I fear he will suffer a great defeat."

Zhang Zhao had not expected Murong Xinzhang to agree with Yan Jin.

His fine son had spent the better part of a year in the Later Jin army and had even served as Chief Commander of the Left and Right Longwu Armies. He too believed the Jin army was no weaker than the Liao army, and he corrected the others' judgment.

And there was a crucial factor here that both Yan Jin and Murong Xinzhang had mentioned: after Shi Jingtang made himself a son to the Khitan, the resentment and humiliation felt throughout the army, high and low.

With that atmosphere behind them, when fighting the Khitan, the Jin army's combat strength would be even greater than against anyone else.

"Moreover, the Heavenly King has always upheld loyalty, righteousness, benevolence, and goodness. To march into Guanzhong at this moment would make it all too easy for the world to link us with the Khitan.

They might even take us for accomplices of the Khitan, conspiring with them to invade the Central Plains from east and west. If so, how could we ever speak of our great Liang's righteous return to the nation?"

"Right! Chengjie is right!" Zhang Zhao nodded emphatically. This was the most important reason they could not enter Guanzhong now.

If Zhang Zhao entered Guanzhong at this time, given that he and Yelu Deguang had sworn brotherhood, it would be all too easy for people to take it as a conspiracy.

Moreover, Liang had always had, in the eyes of the world, a strong barbarian character. To enter Guanzhong now — would that not be confirming it with one's own hand?

"My intent is this: not only must we not enter Guanzhong at this time, we should even send envoys again to the Eastern Capital. Does not the lord of Jin wish us to return to the nation? We can talk with him about it.

Also, the Jin envoy's earlier request to purchase one hundred Hexi Zhe'er horses can be granted."

Hmm. Zhang Zhao was preparing to add fuel to the fire.

Give Shi Chonggui a bit of encouragement. In any case, with that bastard Du Chongwei around, Shi Chonggui could never outplay Yelu Deguang.

Only after Du Chongwei once again led the wolf into the house would it be time for Zhang Zhao to enter Guanzhong and the Central Plains.

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