Chapter 1588: So Strikingly Similar

And now this Elder Councilor was actually saying the ban could be lifted next month — that genuinely caught him off guard. He also knew that, given the man's standing, he would never lightly joke with him about such a thing. Since he had said it, some decision must already have been made within the shogunate. Had the situation changed somehow?

"If that is the case, then it is wonderful news!" He quickly put on a show of utter delight. "If exports can resume next month, there should be far fewer grievances at home, and I will be able to give the court a proper account of myself. My deepest thanks, Your Excellency!"

"There is no need to thank me; this was also a decision made within the shogunate." Naitō Tadashige shook his head. "We place great importance on our relations with the Great Han. This matter has blown up far beyond our original intent, so the sooner we can calm things down, the better. However…"

He suddenly drew out the syllable. Liu Jing, well versed in the officialdom of both nations, knew that whatever came after this pivot was bound to be of the utmost importance, and so he sharpened his focus to listen.

"This enormous dispute, when you get down to it, stems from the fact that communication between our two nations is not yet particularly smooth. Many small problems were magnified by poor communication, eventually becoming issues that shook the relations between our two countries. The representatives we have stationed in the Great Han have raised similar concerns on several occasions…" Naitō Tadashige's expression grew even more solemn as he continued, weighing every word. "Moreover, the trade framework between our two nations is not sufficiently clear, and proper rules have yet to be established — which is why so many sudden incidents have arisen."

"The problems Your Excellency describes do indeed exist. However, my country is willing to resolve them as quickly as possible," Liu Jing replied calmly. "My country was founded on industry and commerce and has always aimed to expand trade. If your esteemed nation is willing to address these issues, they are all quite negotiable. That said, if similar sudden disruptions occur frequently, I fear negotiations will become far more difficult."

His words still carried a veiled reproach. The shogunate had consistently pursued a policy of national seclusion, creating numerous artificial restrictions and obstacles to normal trade between the two nations. This time they had even taken unilateral, sudden action — it would have been strange if he hadn't leveled some criticism.

"Yes, we must talk. The key lies precisely in talking. Our two nations each have our own interests and our own difficulties. Not talking is simply not an option, and we must talk as soon as possible, to eliminate all disputes before they even arise." Naitō Tadashige nodded, agreeing with his view while brushing off the sarcasm entirely. "And these issues are so significant that having Yagyū handle them alone, in fits and starts over in your country, is likely too slow to meet the urgent need."

"What does Your Excellency mean by that?" Liu Jing was somewhat puzzled.

"I will speak plainly with you, Special Envoy. This time, our Shogun has also made a firm resolution — he wants us to establish, in one go, an effective framework for trade between our two nations, and from then on to conduct affairs according to this framework, so as to prevent similar disputes from arising again." Naitō Tadashige looked unhurriedly at Liu Jing and laid out his proposal. "To fulfill the Shogun's wishes, we retainers have deliberated carefully and ultimately decided to dispatch a dedicated mission to your esteemed country to negotiate with your court and resolve all of these issues."

"Dispatch a mission to my country…?" Liu Jing was startled again, and then immediately thought of something. "Could it be…"

"Indeed. If it is acceptable, I wish to personally lead the mission to visit your esteemed country and then negotiate with your court a trade framework that can truly endure. We believe this approach is the most appropriate," Naitō Tadashige said calmly. "At the same time, given my rank and status, I am better able to convey the Shogun's will, which will also reduce needless waste of time during negotiations. Special Envoy, what is your opinion?"

One astonishing thing after another — Liu Jing no longer even felt surprised. He did know, however, that the other man was not actually soliciting his opinion, but rather stating a decision already made by the shogunate's high command.

"Your Excellency's request — I can certainly relay it to my country. As for my personal view, I too hope that Your Excellency can make the journey as soon as possible, so that trade between our two nations may henceforth develop steadily and in good order, and such vexing incidents never occur again." Liu Jing smiled faintly. "However, could Your Excellency disclose a bit more about the purpose of this mission? I must seek instructions from my country, and if I cannot explain matters with sufficient clarity, I fear there will be misgivings at home."

"In truth, it is simple to explain. My country wishes to prevent the situation of severely unbalanced exports and imports from persisting, while also allowing your esteemed country to obtain its due trade profits, so that both nations may each take what they need, as far as possible." Naitō Tadashige still appeared unhurried, but in fact his tone had grown much graver. "The specifics can be negotiated."

"I must ask Your Excellency to elaborate further… what exactly does 'each take what they need' refer to?" Liu Jing pressed on nonetheless. "My apologies, Your Excellency, but I have my duties, and there are some matters I must ask about until I understand them clearly."

A truly persistent and exacting man. Watching this official pursue the matter to its very roots, Naitō Tadashige smiled wryly to himself.

But since he had already asked this far, he might as well spell it out for him. He would have to tell them plainly sooner or later anyway — letting them prepare in advance was not a bad thing.

"My country needs to import your esteemed country's goods, but fine as these goods are, they cause a massive outflow of gold and silver every year — that is an indisputable fact." Without his noticing, Naitō Tadashige had become extremely solemn. Kneeling formally, he straightened his back, as if he were already seated at the negotiating table in the Great Han capital. "Although my country is rich in gold and silver deposits, these reserves are finite after all, and they are non-renewable — once sent away, they can never return. Therefore, when we negotiate trade, we wish to establish certain stipulations on the annual trade volume and methods, so as to make trade more orderly."

"Is Your Excellency implying that you wish to restrict trade between our two nations?" From Naitō Tadashige's evasive words, Liu Jing finally grasped the other party's true intent. "To curb the continuous outflow of gold and silver reserves, you need to limit the trade volume to an acceptable range — is that what Your Excellency means?"

"Though that summary is somewhat blunt, it is not wrong in essence, and can be taken as our original intent." Having come this far, Naitō Tadashige no longer wished to conceal anything. "Special Envoy, I will not hide it from you. In truth, as early as two or three years ago, there were already voices calling for restrictions on trade between our two nations, because the rate of gold and silver outflow was growing ever faster. Before the founding of the Great Han, we had already established trade ties with your country's merchant houses, and the trade volume was already very high back then. Setting all that aside and looking only at the roughly eight years since the Great Han's founding and the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between our two nations — the growth rate of gold and silver outflow has been staggering. Eight years ago, we lost five hundred and thirty taels of gold and two thousand three hundred kan of silver (kan is a unit commonly used in ancient Japan to measure silver weight; one Japanese kan is roughly equivalent to sixteen taels of silver). Last year, we lost four thousand seven hundred taels of gold and close to twenty-one thousand kan of silver — nearly a tenfold increase! As for copper, that figure is even greater. Over these eight years, we have exported a total of more than fifteen million jin to your esteemed country! Of course, these figures are still within an acceptable range for now, but if we do not impose restrictions, I fear that in another ten years, the outflow of gold and silver will become more than my country can bear…"

"Your Excellency… if you intend to actively restrict trade between our two nations, I fear… I fear it will not be easily accepted by my country's court." After a moment of deliberation, Liu Jing spoke with considerable difficulty.

In his heart, he actually acknowledged that the other man's words were reasonable. Having been in charge of trade with Japan all these years, he was naturally well aware of the problems this Elder Councilor described. The shogunate's imports from China were enormous, and the goods it could export fell far short of covering its import needs, so a massive outflow of gold and silver currency was inevitable every year. Gold and silver were the financial lifeblood of a state. From the shogunate's standpoint, wanting to impose a degree of control over this continuously hemorrhaging trade was not unreasonable.

But he was not Japanese — he was an official of the Great Han, and he had to view the issue from the Great Han's standpoint. From the Great Han's perspective, this unbalanced trade was immensely beneficial. The Great Han now had a hundred industries waiting to be revived, and to expand production, it needed an infusion of precious metals like gold and silver to bolster the market. At the same time, the country was currently undertaking currency reforms, so naturally the more gold and silver flowed in, the better.

"I am aware that our request will put your esteemed country in a somewhat difficult position, but I trust your esteemed court can understand our original intent and our difficulties." Naitō Tadashige knew it would not be easy for the other party to accept, so he remained genial. "The continuous outflow of gold and silver is not merely a matter of depleting mineral reserves for my country — gold and silver are also used as currency in my country. Their constant outflow makes domestic coinage scarce, which in turn causes extreme price fluctuations and depresses commerce. This is a situation we must, by any means, reverse and avoid."

The shogunate's economic system was itself built upon the kokudaka system; one could say the price of rice was the very cornerstone of the shogunate's existence. The continuous outflow of gold and silver would cause violent fluctuations in the price of rice, which would undoubtedly affect the shogunate's rule. It was precisely out of such considerations that the shogunate, disregarding possible Chinese opposition, had forcibly begun to implement its trade-balancing policy.

"Then how exactly does your esteemed nation plan to control trade?" Liu Jing asked further. "What annual outflow of gold and silver would your esteemed nation find acceptable?"

"That can be discussed in detail. As long as we can negotiate an outcome acceptable to both sides, it will be fine." Naitō Tadashige smiled faintly, as if to ease the atmosphere. "However, in my personal view, the annual outflow should be somewhat lower than last year's. At last year's rate of outflow, my country would find it unsustainable in the long run."

"Lower than last year?" Liu Jing furrowed his brow instinctively, clearly troubled. "That… is far too little. I fear the court will find it hard to accept. And besides, if trade volume is controlled, won't your esteemed country's imports also be obstructed, and commerce suffer a severe shock for a time?"

"Special Envoy, please do not misunderstand. Restricting the outflow of gold and silver is not restricting trade. In fact, we rather hope that trade between our two nations can flourish even more vigorously." Naitō Tadashige shook his head.

"What does Your Excellency mean by that?" Liu Jing was confused by him again.

"The massive outflow of gold and silver is, in essence, a single problem — the problem of extreme imbalance in trade between our two nations. Japan imports many goods from China, while China imports far too little from Japan. When there is an enormous gap between these two figures, the outflow of gold and silver becomes unavoidable." Naitō Tadashige raised his voice slightly so the other man could hear more clearly. "Therefore, to solve the real problem, what we want is to restore a certain balance to trade between our two nations; exports must not be too much smaller than imports. So… if your esteemed country can expand its imports from my country, your esteemed country's exports will not actually suffer."

"In other words, your esteemed nation actually hopes that my country will increase its imports from your country, correct?" Liu Jing thought for a moment, straightening out the other man's meaning completely. "However, my country encourages trade. If merchants importing goods from your esteemed country could sell them successfully in my country, we would not restrict them. Yet for all these years, the volume of my country's imports from your esteemed country has remained very low. Clearly, merchants cannot sell your esteemed country's goods… Trade, in the end, must be voluntary. We cannot very well force our merchants to buy things they have no use for, can we?"

Shipping goods from Japan to China by sea ultimately entailed enormous transport costs, so the maritime merchants all pursued high-profit cargo and would not buy goods that could not be sold at a high price to bring back. At present, the goods Japan exported to China were nothing more than items like folding fans, pottery, and lacquerware — relying on these to balance trade was truly impossible.

"My country is also a commercially prosperous nation, and among our common people there are many skilled artisans. There are still plenty of goods that can be shipped out for sale; as long as merchants respond correctly, there should still be profits to be made," Naitō Tadashige said, though he did not give an answer that convinced Liu Jing. "In any case, regardless, my country's position is already very clear: trade between our two nations must be balanced, and the outflow of gold and silver must be brought under control. I ask the Special Envoy to appreciate our difficulties."

"As for difficulties… I can indeed understand them to some degree. However, I am but one man and cannot represent the court. Whether the court can accept your esteemed nation's views will likely require some time for deliberation." After thinking it over, Liu Jing stopped insisting on his own views and merely left an ambiguous reply. "All I can promise Your Excellency is that I will immediately write a dispatch, conveying Your Excellency's several requests to my country verbatim, for the court to judge, and then relay the response back to Your Excellency."

"That would be excellent." Naitō Tadashige nodded. "If the Special Envoy can help bring this matter to fruition, he will have rendered yet another great service to the relations between our two nations! I shall wait here quietly for the Special Envoy's good news. If the mission can truly proceed, I will reward the Special Envoy handsomely."

"I am unworthy of such praise; this is merely my duty." Liu Jing cupped his hands toward Naitō Tadashige, then took his leave and departed.

Though he had verbally placated the other man and agreed to relay the message to his country, in his heart he had already reached a judgment: the court would not accept this outcome.

If the Great Han had not originally been preparing for war against Japan, after receiving the news he would transmit, it would likely begin preparing for war anyway. The Great Han was now in the ascendant, its national power flourishing, and it held in its grasp a naval force of such might — how could it allow Japan to restrict its outflow of gold and silver?

Since trade could no longer continue to pry open Japan's doors and let gold and silver flow into China on an even larger scale, then only cannons and muskets could do the talking.

After returning to his residence, Liu Jing recounted everything he had seen and heard that evening to Zhou Pu. Zhou Pu was briefly startled by Naitō Tadashige's arrival and Takenaka Shigeyoshi's downfall, but his attention was quickly drawn away by what followed.

"These Japanese actually have rather sharp minds!" After hearing Liu Jing's full account, Zhou Pu let out a long sigh. "They do know, after all, that you can't just eat through your reserves — you need to make them last."

"Japan is currently ruled by the shogunate, and the Elder Councilors are among the shogunate's highest-ranking officials, so he is more or less a grand councilor. How could a man who can become a nation's grand councilor not have a sharp mind?" Liu Jing sighed deeply. "Ha, I never imagined that behind this lay a scheme to coerce the Great Han. No wonder they suddenly halted copper exports — it was to seize the initiative and show us their strength first!"

"Though to call it particularly sharp may not be accurate…" Zhou Pu suddenly shook his head. "The Great Han's national power is so flourishing now, its military might so awe-inspiring, and yet they made such a decision without even thinking it through properly. To be honest, I find it rather reckless."

"You cannot entirely blame them for recklessness. Japan has been closed off for a thousand years. Apart from the Mongols back then, who has ever actively invaded them? Naturally, it would never occur to them that such a thing could happen." Liu Jing smiled. "That Elder Councilor is still entertaining the idea of going to China to coerce the court. When that day comes, they will be greatly astonished, won't they?"

"Naturally, we must give them a good shock." Zhou Pu also laughed. "These people sit in a well and look at the sky, thinking that a few petty tricks can intimidate our Great Han and the Son of Heaven. What wishful thinking. When the time comes, they will learn the meaning of suffering."

"In any case, we must relay their demands to the court. Before hostilities commence, we must maintain the appearance that everything is business as usual; we cannot let them detect any clues." Liu Jing continued, "This Naitō Tadashige is a formidable figure. You, sir, must also be careful in the coming days."

"I will naturally be careful. However… now that Takenaka Shigeyoshi has just been purged by them, they will surely continue to root out his close confidants next. The shogunate officials here must all be in a state of panic, each fearing for his own safety, and likely have no attention to spare for the outside world. Even if Naitō Tadashige is formidable, without eyes and ears he is merely a blind man. I feel this is actually an excellent time for me to act." Zhou Pu was brimming with confidence. "Once this period passes, the preparations will be nearly complete."