Chapter 630: Family Affairs, State Affairs, World Affairs

Zhao Jin nodded in agreement. Wang Youshan gave a rueful smile and turned to Wang Zhaojing, making no effort to avoid speaking in front of Zhao Jin. Blunt and direct, he said, "I imagine you haven't done much reading these past couple of years. You've seen the state of our family's doorstep. Don't pin any hopes on this grand examination. I reckon there won't be any hope for you in the future either."

A flash of disappointment crossed Wang Zhaojing's face, but it was immediately replaced by a look of relief. The shift in expression was so obvious, like watching someone shrug a heavy load off their shoulders; everyone saw it. Wang Zhaojing smiled and said, "That's fine too. Once the exams are over, I'll head back to Xuzhou with Big Brother. We can look after each other on the road."

"All grown up, all grown up." Wang Youshan paused at Wang Zhaojing's reply, then laughed and sighed these two remarks.

Sighing aside, he immediately changed the subject and asked, "It's not good for you lot to stay cooped up in that tiny corner of Xuzhou forever. Treat this trip as a chance to broaden your horizons. You must have seen quite a lot along the way. What do you think?"

Before Zhao Jin could answer, Wang Zhaojing rushed to speak first: "Father, we traveled through Yanzhou Prefecture and Dongchang Prefecture in Shandong, then crossed Hejian Prefecture in Northern Zhili to reach Shuntian Prefecture. I can't say we've covered much ground, but in my opinion, none of these places compare to our Xuzhou. The orderliness in the territories under Big Brother's rule, that sense of thriving progress—you don't see that here. Xuzhou and the other places Big Brother manages have a vigorous, burgeoning spirit, while these places only show decay. Even the capital is like this. For all its size, with all those Depot guards and constables, yet thieves, beggars, and all sorts of riffraff are everywhere. You no longer see that in Xuzhou."

Having held back many words along the journey, Wang Zhaojing now had an opening and simply let them pour out in a torrent: "The soldiers we saw along the way all looked like beggars. I thought things might be better here in the capital, but they're in tattered clothes too, driven to hard labor. There's no training to speak of; even their weapons are rusted all over. How could such feeble troops ever win a battle? If I may say so, even the roving bandits who were at the walls of Xuzhou that year would stand a fair chance against these soldiers."

Wang Youshan listened very carefully. When Wang Zhaojing finished, he couldn't help but smile and shook his head. "This one trip out, instead of making you cautious, has stirred up quite a few thoughts. That's not a bad thing. Staying at home and working behind closed doors makes you a blind man with eyes wide open; whatever the outcome in the future, you'd never understand it clearly. You've come out, seen things, and formed your own ideas. That's good."

The meaning behind his words was clear to both Zhao Jin and Wang Zhaojing, but neither would ever voice that veiled implication aloud. Wang Youshan seemed to have many questions himself. He spoke again: "Yang Hao has already reached Liaoyang. The Ministry of War says the Jianzhou Jurchens are currently attacking Yehe, and the government troops plan to seize this chance to march. Forces are gathering from all directions, roughly a hundred and twenty thousand troops. Provisions are nearly all in place. Yang Hao will hold the oath ceremony and dispatch the army any day now. Xiao Jin, what do you think the outcome will be?"

Since the fall of Fushun and the fall of Qinghe Fortress last year, the court had ordered reinforcements from all routes to assemble. Nearly half a year had passed, and the various forces had finally gathered in Liaodong. The moment for battle had arrived.

The Jianzhou Jurchens had roughly sixty to eighty thousand troops, a number that already included Mongol auxiliaries and Ming defectors. Everyone knew, however, that the Jianzhou Jurchen Jin army was relatively elite, while the Ming commanders were rather mediocre. Weighing all aspects, the outcome was hard to call.

The capital, however, was very confident. This time, provisions were ample, everyone from top to bottom was giving their all, and they had overwhelming numbers. They would never again make the mistake of underestimating the enemy. Advancing step by step, they would surely annihilate the Jianzhou Jurchens, or at the very least win a great victory.

Wang Youshan had heard these analyses and narratives countless times. It must be understood that while the Ministry of War had its share of pure moralists, it also had many old hands in military affairs. Their words carried reason and evidence. Voicing them now seemed somewhat like testing Zhao Jin.

"Defeat is certain." Zhao Jin's reply was crisp and direct.

Wang Youshan's brow furrowed, his expression turning somewhat displeased. When an elder asks about such a momentous matter, a junior should at least ponder for a moment before answering. For Zhao Jin to be so blunt seemed somewhat arrogant.

"Uncle, the Xuzhou Assistant Regional Commander has nearly ten thousand troops under his command, yet he dares not make a rash move against my nephew's two thousand militia. Why is that? It's because out of his ten thousand troops, it's already good if a thousand or so are usable. Those truly worthy of being called crack soldiers number no more than the few hundred personal guards in the city. Add up those under the Commandants and Battalion Commanders, and I doubt they could muster eight hundred. Uncle also knows that Assistant Regional Commander Zhou Baolu handles matters with some diligence and isn't the type to be too cold-hearted or embezzle excessively. Moreover, he's earned quite a bit following my nephew these years, not to mention the wealth of Southern Zhili. Under such conditions, in such a situation, he still only has eight hundred battle-worthy troops." Zhao Jin spoke with ease and confidence.

Wang Youshan was about to speak, but Zhao Jin did not stop and continued: "When Assistant Regional Commander Zhou's ten thousand troops are assembled, these eight hundred are the only ones who can charge and fight. And even these eight hundred-plus elites cannot be concentrated for use. The four hundred personal guards under his direct command are his private property, but aren't the troops under the Commandants, Battalion Commanders, and Squad Commanders the same? As for the other several thousand or over ten thousand, they'll follow along to loot when the wind is favorable. But once a battle is lost, they'll be the first to flee, and might even throw the whole situation into chaos. These soldiers cannot be used as soldiers; they can only be used as laborers."

There were things Zhao Jin would not have spelled out so clearly before, but now he felt it necessary to let the Wang father and son see the situation with greater clarity.

Having spent much time with the old military hands at the Ministry of War, Wang Youshan understood military affairs better and better. After Zhao Jin began speaking, he fell silent, sighed, and listened with rapt attention.

"Out of over ten thousand troops, no more than eight hundred can fight, and even they are split into several factions. So what is the great army Yang Hao has assembled in Liaoyang like? I'm afraid those commanders there don't even measure up to Assistant Regional Commander Zhou. Even if they were exactly the same, could a hundred thousand troops yield ten thousand elites comparable to household retainers and personal guards? And these ten thousand elites would still be divided into dozens or even a hundred large and small factions. Their strength cannot be applied in one place, nor would it ever be. In such circumstances, can Yang Hao change anything?"

"... Hard to say... I'm afraid he cannot..." At Zhao Jin's question, Wang Youshan exhaled, changing his answer mid-sentence.

Zhao Jin nodded and said no more. In truth, it would have been fine to keep these words in his heart, and speaking them out was nothing to be proud of—it was merely reasoning backward from a conclusion. But he simply could not hold back. Ever since the fall of Fushun, everything Zhao Jin saw, heard, and thought revolved around this. The more he pondered, the more a sense of stifling gloom coiled around his heart, and he had no outlet to pour it out. Now that the topic had been broached, it was the perfect chance to speak his mind freely.

Wang Youshan fell silent. Wang Zhaojing glanced at his father, then at Zhao Jin, and smiled, settling into the posture of an attentive listener.

"You only speak of the government troops' failings, only point out the military officers' faults. Why do you not mention the Jianzhou Jurchens? To harp only on our own weakness and the other side's strength is hardly a fair approach." Wang Youshan suddenly spoke up.

"With the passage of long years, maladies inevitably multiply. When our Great Ming's founding emperor established the dynasty, and when the Yongle Emperor quelled the troubles, what elite troops and mighty generals we had then. But two hundred years have passed since. How many years have the Jianzhou Jurchens had? They haven't accumulated so many entrenched ills yet." Zhao Jin answered.

At these words, Wang Youshan was stunned. He remained silent for a long moment, then burst out in rueful laughter, shaking his head to himself. The atmosphere in the room eased considerably, no longer as solemn as before.

"With that tongue of yours just now, you wouldn't be out of place even in a factional debate. Truly impressive. Let's assume for now that you have a point." Wang Youshan teased, then his expression grew somewhat distant. Calmly, he said, "A major defeat might be a good thing. We've been muddling along in a daze for decades now. A painful blow might spur us to make a determined effort to govern well, to bring about some change."

Though the Wang household was simple, it was still set up like a prominent family's residence. After their talk, servants were arranged to help Zhao Jin and Wang Zhaojing wash up and change clothes. What struck Zhao Jin as odd, however, was that their luggage remained in the front courtyard. Not only did he find it strange, but Wang Zhaojing did as well.

"Since you're here to see things, don't stay at home. Have an early supper, then go to the Shanxi Guild Hall. What can you see staying cooped up in this residence? What sort of people can you meet?" Wang Youshan said very crisply.

The elder had thought things through thoroughly, and this suited Zhao Jin's wishes perfectly. Wang Zhaojing was somewhat puzzled and couldn't help asking, "Father, wouldn't our own Southern Zhili guild hall do? Why must we go to the Shanxi one?"

"Coming at this time, do you think there'd still be rooms? They've been full for ages. The Shanxi Guild Hall, on the other hand, is half empty this year. Staying there is more convenient. You're already familiar enough with people from Southern Zhili; it's good to interact with those from other provinces." Wang Youshan had considered everything.

At this, both Zhao Jin and Wang Zhaojing recalled something. They regularly read the court gazette in detail and kept abreast of affairs across the realm. Shanxi had suffered a massive earthquake that year, with devastating casualties throughout the province. In the face of such a natural disaster, the status of scholar or commoner mattered little; presumably, many examination candidates had also perished or been injured.

Supper was eaten very early. It was not prepared by the household kitchen but ordered from a nearby restaurant—very sumptuous and very casual.

"... Word has come out of the palace that His Majesty's health is worsening. He's coughed and vomited blood several times. Some say he won't last five years; others say not even three. A new sovereign brings a new court. Once the current emperor is gone, the situation will turn upside down. The Donglin faction seems to be gaining influence again. Your father's faction has begun its decline. Old promises no longer hold; there's little social exchange or favor-trading now..." Wang Youshan showed no restraint in front of his son and nephew, speaking directly about everything.

Ever since factional strife began, from the provincial exams to the metropolitan exams, each side had been reaching deeper and deeper. One more provincial graduate, one more metropolitan graduate—as long as they could place their own people, they gained another ally in the countryside or the officialdom. It wasn't that one couldn't pass on one's own merit, but for someone like Wang Zhaojing, who hadn't touched his studies in two years, there was no need to even mention it.

"... You are my son. Even if you had studied hard these past two years, you still wouldn't pass..." Wang Youshan was already somewhat drunk when he said this.

As the son of a member of a certain faction, if he passed, wouldn't that be adding manpower to that faction? If they could block him, they absolutely would—especially now that Wang Youshan's faction had completely lost power.

"Go early. Take a good look around here, interact with outsiders. When you feel you've seen enough and have made up your minds, then go back!" That evening, Wang Youshan drank a bit too much. Before the sun had even set, he was shooing them out the door.

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